National analyst expects Michigan football defense to take step back in 2022

Michigan Wolverines football lost seven starters from its 2021 defense that ranked eighth nationally in points (17.4) and 20th in yards (330.9) allowed per outing. The Wolverines have talent to be excited about at most, if not all, positions, but replacing the production they lose is cause for concern.

That’s especially case at the EDGE spots, where the Maize and Blue are tasked with filling the void left behind by Aidan Hutchinson, the 2021 Heisman Trophy runner-up and No. 2 overall pick to the Detroit Lions, and David Ojabo, a second-team All-American and the No. 45 overall selection to the Baltimore Ravens.

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The coaching staff went through a shakeup this offseason, too. Coordinator Mike Macdonald returned to Baltimore after one season in Ann Arbor, and he was replaced by Jesse Minter, who also has a Ravens’ background and is fresh off one year leading the Vanderbilt defense. Ron Bellamy went from safeties to wide receivers, with Jay Harbaugh moving from tight ends to safeties. Shaun Nua left for USC, and former Michigan defensive lineman Mike Elston replaced him as the D-Line’s leader.

Minter says he’s running the same system as Macdonald did at Michigan, with head coach Jim Harbaugh stating that continuity was key in the hiring process. Elston, who’s well-regarded as one of the nation’s best defensive line coaches, may be an upgrade for the group, and none of the other coaching moves should have a huge negative impact on the unit.

Still, it goes back to Michigan’s ability to get after the passer, which the EDGE players did so well last season. Hutchinson and Ojabo combined for 25 sacks, a program record, and 117 pressures according to PFF.

“And it was really what made the Michigan defense,” national analyst Phil Steele told TheWolverine.com. “You can rush just your regular line with just no blitzing, and create pressure. That allows you to get your full back-seven back there and cover, and that’s a huge part of the defense.”

How big of a step back for Michigan defense?

Not having that, plus question marks at other positions, gives Steele pause. He still thinks the unit will be adequate, but not quite as special as Michigan’s defense was in 2021.

“In fact, last year, Michigan allowed 17.4 points per game,” Steele said. “This year, my computer is calling for them to allow 22.3, so a drop-off of five points per game due to the loss of Ojabo, Hutchinson … and it wasn’t just those two.”

For reference, 22.3 points allowed per game would’ve tied for 32nd in the country last season.

“[Defensive tackle Christopher] Hinton is gone, Josh Ross at linebacker is gone, Daxton Hill at DB is gone, [safety] Brad Hawkins is gone, [cornerback] Vincent Gray is gone,” Steele continued. “They lost a lot of good talent from the unit.

“But what they’re left with, it’s still a very talented defense. I rate their defensive line No. 25 overall [in the country], the linebackers No. 36 and DBs No. 20.”

Despite what Michigan loses, Steele is optimistic in some of the replacements at the edge rusher spots.

“Now, the key is going to be getting that pressure from the outside,” Steele noted. “[Graduate] Taylor Upshaw is a guy with an NFL body, and he’s got some long arms and some violent hands. I think he can do some business there. [Senior] Mike Morris is another guy on the other side. He may be that pass rusher this year.

“So I think if you’re looking for somebody to emerge, it’s gotta be Morris or Upshaw, maybe a combination of both. Are they going to match what Ojabo and Hutchinson did, 25 sacks last year? No, but hopefully they can come close to it. And if they do, maybe Michigan’s defense can be close to last year.”

Pressure with four of the utmost importance

If Morris, Upshaw and others along the defensive line aren’t able to get to the quarterback, that will stress the Michigan defense, specifically on the back end.

With the way college football offenses are trending — more pass attempts and better efficiency through the air — being able to keep the back seven in coverage while still getting heat on the signal-caller is crucial.

“It’s what I consider the most important,” Steele said. “You go back and take a look at Baylor’s climb in the Big 12 last year — that was due, mostly, to being strong up front on the defensive line. They’re strong again this year. And a lot of my top-ranked teams in the front of the magazine are based on the defensive line. Clemson’s got my No. 1 rated defensive line in the country. Pitt is No. 2, and I think very highly of both those teams this year.

“So yes, strong defensive line has really made the SEC, the SEC. For so many years, they’ve always had the best defensive lines. You’ll see that most of the powerhouse teams have big defensive lines. Pac-12 has been down in recent years, and it’s been a long time since they’ve made the playoff. One of the reasons is they haven’t had those dominant defensive lines out in the Pac-12. Defensive line, for me, is a hugely important position.”