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Michigan football bowl projections: Likely CFP destination, opponent coming into focus

Anthony Broomeby:Anthony Broome11/28/23

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Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh and J.J. McCarthy will have decisions to make about their futures. Kirthmon F. Dozier | USA TODAY NETWORK

The Michigan Wolverines took down the Ohio State Buckeyes last weekend in what served essentially as a play-in game for the College Football Playoff. U-M has to handle its business this weekend against Iowa to officially punch its ticket, but the writing is on the wall for the Wolverines to get back for a third season in a row.

Reading the tea leaves now, it seems likely that Michigan will head out west to the Rose Bowl to take on whoever emerges victorious from the Pac-12 title game between Washington and Oregon. The Ducks enter that contest as 9-point favorites over a team they lost to earlier this season.

Things could change if Georgia loses to Alabama and Michigan has a claim to the No. 1 seed, which they may have already with a pair of top-10 wins and a potential top-20 win coming on Saturday. Should that be the case, the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans is in play.

But for now, the tea leaves have Michigan heading to Pasadena, and most national experts agree. Here is a roundup of the bowl projections heading into championship weekend.

On3.com – Andy Staples

On3’s Andy Staples has Michigan heading to the Rose Bowl taking on future Big Ten foe Oregon.

“Michigan defeated Ohio State for the third straight time and now head to the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa,” Staples wrote. “The Big Ten title game probably won’t be competitive as Iowa’s struggles on offense have been well-documented.

“Oregon gets its rematch against Washington on Friday in the Pac-12 title game. Vegas continues to favor the Ducks, and a win should get Oregon in the playoffs.”

ESPN.com – Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach

In the latest bowl/CFP projections from Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach of ESPN, Michigan heads to the CFP’s Rose Bowl semifinal. Bonagura has Michigan playing Washington, while Schlabach predicts a matchup with Oregon.

“For Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State, their conference championship games should be straightforward: Win and you’re in. If an undefeated Power 5 champion gets left out, the playoff would be a joke and rendered meaningless. It’s not going to happen,” Bonagura said.

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“If one or more of those teams lose, however, things would start to get interesting — especially if Texas wins the Big 12. Unlike last year when TCU lost in the Big 12 title game and still qualified for the playoff, no team is locked in. It’s possible a team like Georgia or Michigan could lose and stay in, but it would require a chaotic championship weekend.”

CBS Sports – Jerry Palm

The CBS Sports projections have Michigan and Florida State playing in the Rose Bowl as the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, respectively. Georgia and Oregon would play in the Sugar Bowl with the winners of both games heading to Houston.

As far as the other Big Ten Powers go, Ohio State would play Louisville in the Orange Bowl and Penn State would take on Missouri in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta.

Athlon Sports – Steven Lassan

Athlon is another outlet that has a Michigan vs. Florida State matchup in the Rose Bowl with Georgia and Oregon on the other side of the bracket. Athlon also projects at Michigan vs. Georgia national title game in Houston.

Action Network – Brett McMurphy

McMurphy has Michigan playing Oregon in the Rose Bowl and has a line set at 1-point in favor of the Wolverines. U-M would then advance to the national title game in Houston against Georgia (a 11.5-point favorite over Florida State in the Sugar Bowl), which Action Network currently has set as a 2.5-point game in favor of Georgia.

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