Michigan football: ESPN analytics project win probabilities for 2023 season

The Michigan Wolverines get their 2023 season started on Saturday in the season opener against the East Carolina Pirates (12 p.m. ET, Peacock). An offseason’s worth of hype and expectations finally materializes into game action in one of the most anticipated campaigns in program history.

The 2nd-ranked Michigan squad is expected to compete for a Big Ten and national championship this season, and most of the analytics back that up. According to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, the Wolverines are projected to win every game but one this season with a coin-flip thrown in for good measure.

We know U-M might not be tested by the caliber of competition in the non-conference slate with East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green, but its toughest opponent might be itself. Michigan is dealing with a self-imposed suspension for head coach Jim Harbaugh for the first three games of the season, leading to a rotating cast of gameday coaches over the first three weeks. Conference play gets going on Sept. 23 with Rutgers coming to Ann Arbor, which marks the return of Harbaugh.

From there, the schedule gets a little more difficult each week with road games in three of four weeks at Nebraska, Minnesota and Michigan State. Trips to Penn State and Maryland come in November leading into the Ohio State game. There are plenty of challenges, but also plenty of opportunities to make a statement.

Here is what win probabilities look like heading into the 2023 season.

Week 1 vs. East Carolina, Sept. 2

Win probability: 94.9 percent

The Pirates, who are making their first-ever trip to Michigan Stadium, won eight games last season under head coach Mike Houston. They are expected to fall off this year, but we know the nation will be pulling for them to pull the upset. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter gets to run the gameday operation Week 1 in his turn as the man in charge.

Week 2 vs. UNLV, Sept. 9

Win probability: 98.2 percent

Michigan is splitting interim head coaching duties for this game with running backs coach/run game coordinator Mike Hart helming the first half and safeties coach/special teams coordinator Jay Harbaugh getting second-half duties. The Rebels went 5-7 last season and this game should be as lopsided as the win probability suggests.

Week 3 vs. Bowling Green, Sept. 16

Win probability: 98.5 percent

In the last game before the expiration of Harbaugh’s gameday suspensions, offensive coordinator/offensive line coach Sherrone Moore gets his chance to run the show. Michigan alum Scott Loeffler leads his Falcons into the Big House coming off a 6-7 season.

Week 4 vs. Rutgers, Sept. 23

Win probability: 94.9 percent

Harbaugh makes his return for the Big Ten opener against the Scarlet Knights. Despite having a massive talent advantage, Rutgers has played the Wolverines tough in 10 of the last 12 quarters played against the two teams. It should be a physical game, but one that U-M reigns victorious in.

Week 5 at Nebraska, Sept. 30

Win probability: 84.9 percent

The Wolverines head back to Lincoln, most likely for a noon kickoff, in a stadium where they barely escaped victorious in 2021. Most believe the Cornhuskers will be much better coached under Matt Rhule and that this could be a trap game. Avoiding a night game atmosphere would be a plus for Michigan.

Week 6 at Minnesota, Oct. 7

Win probability: 77.7 percent

Minnesota has question marks this season but might have their biggest and most physical roster yet, especially in the trenches. This one could wind up being a dogfight as the Gophers try to make a statement as a contender in the Big Ten West.

Week 7 vs. Indiana, Oct. 14

Win probability: 92.7 percent

Indiana has fallen off hard over the last few seasons, and there are very few indications this might be a team that pulls itself out of that hole. The Hoosiers have been prone to giving U-M a scare in the past, but there is no reason the Wolverines should struggle much here… unless it gets caught looking ahead to next week.

Week 8 at Michigan State, Oct. 21

Win probability: 77.4 percent

If NBC has its way, this will be a night game at Spartan Stadium. Given how the year is projected to go for MSU, that might be the one thing that gets their fanbase fired up and ready to roll. It’s “Beat Michigan or bust” in a year where the Spartans might not have much more than that to play for. Even with a talent advantage, it is always wise to have your head on a swivel in this rivalry.

Week 10 vs. Purdue, Nov. 4

Win probability: 90.9 percent

Purdue is breaking in a first-year head coach in Ryan Walters and loses a ton of talent from last season. There could be some bye week rust to shake off, but this is a good spot to do it in with a trip to Penn State looming next week.

Week 11 at Penn State, Nov. 11

Win probability: 50.6 percent

ESPN’s analytics have this as a coin-flip game, and it is hard to argue with that. It took some late-game heroics for Michigan to pull out a victory in Happy Valley in 2021. Luckily, it looks like U-M has avoided a White Out atmosphere and will play in the daylight. If there is a “letdown” spot before Ohio State, this is the most logical choice.

Week 12 at Maryland, Nov. 18

Win probability: 79.9 percent

Maryland’s talent level has steadily improved over the last few years, and they will take on a pass-happy offense that should give Michigan plenty of reps heading into the Ohio State game. The week before OSU is always seen as a trap game and the Terrapins gave them hell last year.

Week 13 vs. Ohio State, Nov. 25

Win probability: 27.6 percent

ESPN is giving Michigan a little over a 1-in-4 chance of being able to beat Ohio State this year, but that looks a lot like what the analytics have said over the last two seasons. Recruiting rankings and predictive analysis are baked into their numbers, but this game is not played with computers. This will be a coin-flip game, most likely.