ESPN FPI gives Michigan football title odds, game-by-game projections
Michigan Wolverines football is chasing its third consecutive Big Ten title and hoping to cash in with a national championship next January in Houston. The Maize and Blue were a consensus top-three team nationally in “way-too-early” rankings released back in January.
However, ESPN.com’s Football Power Index (FPI) is slightly less bullish on ninth-year head coach Jim Harbaugh‘s club, which returns the fifth-most returning production in the country, according to ESPN’s own metric. FPI is “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.”
Michigan ranks sixth in FPI, behind No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 LSU and No. 5 Texas. In order, USC, Clemson, Notre Dame and Penn State round out the top 10. Besides Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, Wisconsin is the only other Big Ten team in the top 25, standing No. 20.
Before we get into what FPI says about each Michigan game, here are its probabilities for what the Wolverines will accomplish this fall.
| Proj. W-L | Win Out% | 6 Wins% | Win Division% | Win Conference% | Make Playoff% | Make NC% | Win NC% |
| 10.0-2.1 | 4.3 | 100 | 17.6 | 14.3 | 25.9 | 10.3 | 3.9 |
Michigan has fewer question marks than most, if not all, other contenders, but ESPN’s computer believes in Ohio State more when it comes to the Big Ten race, giving OSU a 71.2-percent chance to win the league. FPI projects the Buckeyes will beat Michigan at The Big House (that would mark their first win over the Wolverines since 2019) and that U-M will drop one other game. FPI gives the Buckeyes the best chance to make the playoff (82.2 percent), advance to the national championship game (57.2) and win it all (36.7).
It doesn’t predict that the Wolverines will lose another contest from an individual standpoint, but given the percentages, it believes another setback is coming, with the likeliest candidate being at Penn State (53.1-percent chance of victory).
Here’s a look at FPI’s percentage chances that Michigan will win each game:
East Carolina, Sept. 2: 96.7 percent chance of victory
East Carolina FPI rank: 76th
Projected record: 6.3-5.8
UNLV, Sept. 9: 98.6 percent chance of victory
UNLV FPI rank: 105th
Projected record: 5.9-6.2
Bowling Green Sept. 16: 99 percent chance of victory
Bowling Green FPI rank: 125th
Projected record: 4.3-7.7
Rutgers, Sept. 23: 96.7 percent chance of victory
Rutgers FPI rank: 78th
Projected record: 4.1-7.9
at Nebraska, Sept. 30: 87.6 percent chance of victory
Nebraska FPI rank: 52nd
Projected record: 5.7-6.3
at Minnesota, Oct. 7: 78.7 percent chance of victory
Minnesota FPI rank: 33rd
Projected record: 6.5-5.7
Indiana, Oct. 14: 95.9 percent chance of victory
Indiana FPI rank: 75th
Projected record: 3.9-8.1
at Michigan State, Oct. 21: 77.7 percent chance of victory
Michigan State FPI rank: 31st
FPI rank: 6.9-5.1
Purdue, Nov. 4: 93.4 percent chance of victory
Purdue FPI rank: 50th
Projected record: 5.4-6.7
at Penn State, Nov. 11: 53.1 percent chance of victory
Penn State FPI rank: 10th
Projected record: 9.3-2.7
at Maryland, Nov. 18: 83.2 percent chance of victory
Maryland FPI rank: 44th
Projected record: 6.6-5.4
Ohio State, Nov. 25: 29.6 percent chance of victory
Ohio State FPI rank: 1st
Projected record: 11.8-1
