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Michigan football: ESPN FPI updates outlook, projected bowl spot heading into Big Ten play

Anthony Broomeby:Anthony Broome•09/19/22•

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Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh
Michigan Wolverines football head coach Jim Harbaugh was the AP Coach of the Year in 2021. He's accepted Big Ten expansion. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

Michigan football’s standing in the latest batch of ESPN Football Power Index numbers after a Week 3 demolition of UConn. The Wolverines now rank 4th in the nation behind Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State, respectively.

FPI has Michigan finishing with a 10.3-2.0 record on the season. Most of the FPI percentages and projections this week took a leap compared to the last batch.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

Other FPI percentages on Michigan’s resume include:

Win Out: 5.4%

Six Wins or More: 100%

Win Big Ten East: 22.8%

Win Big Ten: 17.2%

College Football Playoff: 31.6%

Make National Title Game: 12.6%

Win National Title: 4.8%

Each week, we will update Michigan’s resume and also take a look ahead to the rest of the 2022 schedule. Here is how it breaks down ahead of Week 4.

Michigan football’s FPI outlook

Sept. 3 vs. Colorado State: 51-7 W (1-0)

Sept. 10 vs. Hawaii: 56-10 W (2-0)

Sept. 17 vs. UConn: 59-0 W (3-0)

Sept. 24 vs. Maryland: 84.7% chance of victory

Oct. 1 at Iowa: 83.6% chance of victory

Oct. 8 at Indiana: 92.1% chance of victory

Oct. 15 vs. Penn State: 65.0% chance of victory

Oct. 29 vs. Michigan State: 78.1% chance of victory

Nov. 5 at Rutgers: 90.8% chance of victory

Nov. 12 vs. Nebraska: 95.9% chance of victory

Nov. 19 vs. Illinois: 92.6% chance of victory

Nov. 26 at Ohio State: 26.6% chance of victory

Bowl projections and what’s next

ESPN also put out its latest batch of bowl projections with both Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach predicting a Rose Bowl appearance for Michigan. Bonagura has them taking on Utah, while Schlabach predicts they will see Oregon. Time will tell as the season rolls along who winds up where.

Michigan football opens Big Ten play on Saturday afternoon against Maryland. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.

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