Michigan football: ESPN's FPI updates projected record, matchup projections ahead of Week 2
Michigan football kicked off its season last Saturday against the Colorado State Rams, blowing them out 51-7. They are hoping is the first step toward a second-straight Big Ten Championship and beyond. With most of the data updated after the first full weened of games, the Wolverines now rate as the No. 5 team in the country, per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Michigan slid up a spot after Notre Dame’s loss at Ohio State. The Buckeyes and Irish are now ranked No. 3 and No. 6, respectively. The updated AP Poll will be out on Tuesday this week since there is a Labor Day game between No. 4 Clemson and Georgia Tech.
FPI has Michigan finishing with a 10.1-2.1 record on the season. Whatever the Wolverines did in its thrashing of the Rams on Saturday, mixed with results from other opponents on the schedule, added about half a victory to their projection.
“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”
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Other FPI percentages on Michigan’s resume include:
Win Out: 4.0%
Six Wins or More: 100%
Win Big Ten East: 17.9%
Win Big Ten: 13.9%
College Football Playoff: 25.6%
Make National Title Game: 7.8%
Win National Title: 2.5%
Each week, we will update Michigan’s resume and also take a look ahead to the rest of the 2022 schedule. Here how it breaks down ahead of Week 2.
Michigan football’s FPI outlook
Sept. 3 vs. Colorado State: 51-7 W
Sept. 10 vs. Hawaii: 99.7% chance of victory
Sept. 17 vs. UConn: 99.1% chance of victory
Sept. 24 vs. Maryland: 85.5% chance of victory
Oct. 1 at Iowa: 83.9% chance of victory
Oct. 8 at Indiana: 88.3% chance of victory
Oct. 15 vs. Penn State: 73% chance of victory
Oct. 29 vs. Michigan State: 74.8% chance of victory
Nov. 5 at Rutgers: 89.3% chance of victory
Nov. 12 vs. Nebraska: 89.8% chance of victory
Nov. 19 vs. Illinois: 91.3% chance of victory
Nov. 26 at Ohio State: 19.7% chance of victory
What’s next for the Wolverines?
The Wolverines will host Hawaii in Week 2 at 8 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network. Sophomore J.J. McCarthy gets the start at quarterback with the staff set to make a further determination ahead of Week 3 versus UConn.
