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ESPN FPI changes Michigan football's outlook heading into Big Ten play

Anthony Broomeby:Anthony Broome•09/16/24•

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NCAA Football: Arkansas State at Michigan
Sep 14, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore reacts on the sideline during the second half against the Arkansas State Red Wolves at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The Michigan Wolverines got back in the victory column on Saturday with a 28-18 non-conference finale decision over Arkansas State Following the win, some of the analytics have been adjusted to account for the first three weeks of performances heading into Big Ten play.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing the year with an 6.9-5.2 record this season, falling four spots to the metric’s No. 21 team in the country. It plays the No. 12 team in the FPI on Saturday with the USC Trojans coming to town. The Wolverines came into the year as the metric’s No. 12 team nationally.

A few other FPI numbers of note are a 1.9% chance of winning the Big Ten, a 6.6% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 0.4% chance of making the national championship game. Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 4 of its 9 remaining games, according to FPI. The metric suggests a higher likelihood of losses to USC, at Washington, vs. Oregon, at Indiana and at Ohio State.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After this week’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.

Michigan football’s updated FPI outlook and win projections

Win Out %6 Wins %Win Conf%Playoff%Make NC%Win NC%
0.1%81.61.9%6.6%0.4%0.1%

Aug. 31 vs. Fresno State (FPI rank: 61st): 30-10 W (1-0)
Sept. 7 vs. Texas (1st): 31-12 L (1-1)
Sept. 14 vs. Arkansas St. (94th): 28-18 W (2-1)
Sept. 21 vs. USC (12th): 42.3% chance of victory
Sept. 28 vs. Minnesota (43rd): 72.2% chance of victory
Oct. 5 at Washington (30th): 47.2% chance of victory
Oct. 19 at Illinois (46th): 65.4% chance of victory
Oct. 26 vs. Michigan State (62nd): 78.6% chance of victory
Nov. 2 vs. Oregon (11th): 42.8% chance of victory
Nov. 9 at Indiana (19th): 40.5% chance of victory
Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (83rd): 87.8% chance of victory
Nov. 30 at Ohio State (3rd): 12.6% chance of victory

What’s next for the Wolverines?

Michigan and USC meet for the first time ever outside of the Rose Bowl in Ann Arbor on Saturday in a game scheduled for 3:30 p.m. kickoff on CBS. The Trojans began the week as 6.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 47.5.

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