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Michigan falls in ESPN's FPI rankings for third-consecutive week

Anthony Broomeby:Anthony Broome•09/17/23•

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NCAA Football: Bowling Green at Michigan
Sep 16, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive lineman Kenneth Grant (78) tries to block a kick in the first half against the Bowling Green Falcons at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Michigan Wolverines football team closed out its non-conference slate with a 31-6 win over Bowling Green on Saturday night, but the light show at the Big House did not equate to a ton of fireworks on the field.

The effort and game were a bit sloppy, but a win is a win. However, it made for the third consecutive week of a downward trend in one metric.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing with a 9.5-2.6 record on the season, ranking No. 14 in the country and falling four spots from last week’s update. The Wolverines ranked sixth heading into the start of their 2023 season.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After Sunday’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.

Michigan football’s updated FPI outlook and win projections

RankProj. W-LWin Out%6+ Wins%Win Division%Win Conference%Playoff%Make NC%Win NC%
1149.5-2.62.7%99.5%10.9%8.7%9.0%1.4%

Sept. 2 vs. East Carolina (FPI rank: 94th) – 30-3 W (1-0)
Sept. 9 vs. UNLV (103rd) – 35-7 W (1-0)
Sept. 16 vs. Bowling Green (108th) – 31-6 W (3-0)
Sept. 23 vs. Rutgers (46th) – 85.0% chance of victory
Sept. 30 at Nebraska (68th) – 84.6% chance of victory
Oct. 7 at Minnesota (47th) – 79.3% chance of victory
Oct. 14 vs. Indiana (66th) – 88.7% chance of victory
Oct. 21 at Michigan State (48th) – 80.5% chance of victory
Oct. 28 – BYE
Nov. 4 vs. Purdue (61st) – 90.6% chance of victory
Nov. 11 at Penn State (6th) – 31.2% chance of victory
Nov. 18 at Maryland (39th) – 72.8% chance of victory
Nov. 25 vs. Ohio State (1st) – 27.5% chance of victory

What’s next for U-M?

Michigan opens Big Ten play next week with a visit from the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 p.m. ET from the Big House with the broadcast set for Big Ten Network.

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