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Michigan football's FPI game-by-game projection revealed

Anthony Broomeby:Anthony Broome•07/09/22•

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Michigan football heads into the offseason as a top 10 team for the 2022 offseason. (Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)

The updated Football Power Index (FPI) projections are in from ESPN with Michigan football’s outlook revealed. Long has it been assumed that the schedule sets up nicely for another late-season title bout with Ohio State. The projections paint a picture of what lies ahead for that to happen.

FPI projects Michigan to finish with a 9.5-2.6 record this year, which lines up with how Vegas views the Wolverines. Most over/under win totals have them set at 9.5 on the season and the computer projection appears dead-on there. Games at Iowa and Ohio State and home tilts with Penn State and Michigan State are the likely swing games on the schedule for this campaign.

Michigan football’s FPI outlook

Sept. 3 vs. Colorado State: 97.6% chance of victory

Sept. 10 vs. Hawaii: 98% chance of victory

Sept. 17 vs. UConn: 99.1% chance of victory

Sept. 24 vs. Maryland: 82.6% chance of victory

Oct. 1 at Iowa: 70% chance of victory

Oct. 8 at Indiana: 85.9% chance of victory

Oct. 15 vs. Penn State: 66.9% chance of victory

Oct. 29 vs. Michigan State: 69.5% chance of victory

Nov. 5 at Rutgers: 88.6% chance of victory

Nov. 12 vs. Nebraska: 80% chance of victory

Nov. 19 vs. Illinois: 93.1% chance of victory

Nov. 26 at Ohio State: 15.2% chance of victory

Lindy’s football preview sees little chance of beating OSU

The football preview magazines are out in full force with Lindy’s making the strongest argument against Michigan this year. The publication foresees another struggle with Ohio State.

“That was a historic 2021 season but making the college football playoff again will be a stretch,” Lindy’s preview said of Michigan. “They won’t be able to beat Ohio State with their roster this season. … As was the case last year, the run game will need to dominate for the Wolverines to even have a chance. It’s going to be interesting to see if Donovan Edwards can emerge as a difference-maker. Physically ready. Can help you in the passing game. If he breaks out in a big way, that’s a helluva one-two punch with [Blake] Corum. As good as anybody’s.

“Nobody should underestimate the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald [to the Baltimore Ravens]. … At quarterback, of course, the best player should play. Still a number of questions there. You want to let them compete. Jim [Harbaugh] knows what’s best, but how that plays out will be fascinating.”

ESPN FPI Top 25

*Team (FPI) | Projected Record

  1. Alabama (29.0) | 11.4 – 1.5
  2. Ohio State (28.3) | 11.8 – 1.0
  3. Georgia (27.9) | 11.6 – 1.3
  4. Clemson (22.8) | 11.1 – 1.7
  5. Notre Dame (17.7) | 9.1 – 2.9
  6. Michigan (16.8) | 9.5 – 2.6
  7. Texas (16.7) | 9.3 – 3.3
  8. Oklahoma (14.9) | 9.1 – 3.4
  9. Miami (14.5) | 9.2 – 3.3
  10. LSU (14.0) | 7.7 – 4.3
  11. Auburn (13.6) | 7.4 – 4.7
  12. Texas A&M (13.0) | 7.4 – 4.6
  13. Utah (12.9) | 9.4 – 3.0
  14. Oklahoma State (12.8) | 8.7 – 3.6
  15. Michigan State (12.6) | 8.0 – 4.1
  16. Penn State (12.6) | 8.0 – 4.1
  17. Ole Miss (12.4) | 7.7 – 4.3
  18. Kentucky (12.0) | 8.2 – 3.9
  19. North Carolina (11.1) | 8.3 – 4.0
  20. Pittsburgh (11.1) | 8.7 – 3.5
  21. Wisconsin (11.1) | 8.2 – 4.1
  22. Baylor (10.9) | 7.7 – 4.5
  23. Oregon (10.6) | 8.6 – 3.8
  24. Mississippi State (9.7) | 6.5 – 5.5
  25. Tennessee (9.7) | 7.1 – 4.9

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