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Michigan football's FPI projections, College Football Playoff odds entering OSU week

Anthony Broomeby:Anthony Broome•11/21/22•

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Michigan Wolverines football head coach Jim Harbaugh is in his eighth season at U-M. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

The week of The Game has arrived with Michigan and Ohio State set to meet this Saturday in Columbus. The path to the Big Ten Championship game and College Football Playoff is set in a game that will pit the nation’s 2nd and 3rd-ranked teams against each other.

Now, the computers have weighed in on what’s next for the Wolverines.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing with a 11.5-0.8 record on the season. The Wolverines rank 3rd among teams in the FPI rankings behind Georgia and Ohio State. Michigan is more likely to make the playoff than it is not, coming in at 72.2%. Georgia (97.6%) and Ohio State (93.6%) are the only teams ahead of the Wolverines. Next up are TCU (54.1%), Clemson (33.4%), Alabama (15.3%) and USC (14.9%).

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

Other FPI percentages on Michigan’s resume include:

Win Out: 24.1%

Six Wins or More: 100%

Win Big Ten East: 28.2%

Win Big Ten: 24.1%

College Football Playoff: 72.2%

Make National Title Game: 30.6%

Win National Title: 12.8%

Each week, we will update Michigan’s resume and also take a look ahead to the rest of the 2022 schedule. Here is how it breaks down ahead of Week 13 and the regular season finale at Ohio State.

Michigan football’s FPI outlook

Sept. 3 vs. Colorado State: 51-7 W (1-0)

Sept. 10 vs. Hawaii: 56-10 W (2-0)

Sept. 17 vs. UConn: 59-0 W (3-0)

Sept. 24 vs. Maryland: 34-27 W (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Oct. 1 at Iowa: 27-14 W (5-0, 2-0 B1G)

Oct. 8 at Indiana: 31-10 W (6-0, 3-0 B1G)

Oct. 15 vs. Penn State: 41-17 W (7-0, 4-0 B1G)

Oct. 29 vs. Michigan State: 29-7 W (8-0, 5-0 B1G)

Nov. 5 at Rutgers: 52-17 W (9-0, 6-0 B1G)

Nov. 12 vs. Nebraska: 34-3 W (10-0, 7-0 B1G)

Nov. 19 vs. Illinois: 19-17 W (11-0, 8-0 B1G)

Nov. 26 at Ohio State: 28.2% chance of victory

What’s next for U-M

Saturday’s game at Ohio Stadium kicks off at 12 p.m. ET on FOX with Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt on the call in Columbus.

Vegas odds are out with Michigan sitting as an 8.5-point underdog – the first time it has not been favored this season – heading into Saturday’s contest. The over/under for total points scored sits at 57.5 as of Monday morning.

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