Michigan football FPI projections lower after loss to Washington
The Michigan Wolverines are into the bye week sitting at 4-2 on the season and a 2-1 record in Big Ten play. With the first half of the season in the rearview mirror, some of the advanced metrics have updated to reflect the six-game stretch.
ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing the year with a 6.9-5.2 record this season, moving down five spots to the metric’s No. 31 team in the country. The Wolverines came into the year as the metric’s No. 12 team nationally.
A few other FPI numbers of note are a 0.4% chance of winning the Big Ten, a 2.9% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 0.1% chance of making the national championship game. Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 3 of its 6 remaining games, according to FPI. The metric suggests a higher likelihood of losses vs. Oregon, at Indiana and at Ohio State.
So what exactly is FPI?
“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”
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After this week’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.
Michigan football’s updated FPI outlook and win projections
| Win Out % | 6 Wins % | Win Conf% | Playoff% | Make NC% | Win NC% |
| 0.1% | 94.3 | 1.5% | 8.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Aug. 31 vs. Fresno State (FPI rank: 78th): 30-10 W (1-0)
Sept. 7 vs. Texas (1st): 31-12 L (1-1)
Sept. 14 vs. Arkansas St. (156th): 28-18 W (2-1)
Sept. 21 vs. USC (13th): 27-24 W (3-1, 1-0 B1G)
Sept. 28 vs. Minnesota (51st): 27-24 W (4-1, 2-0 B1G)
Oct. 5 at Washington (27th): 27-17 L (4-2, 2-1 B1G)
Oct. 19 at Illinois (47th): 55.8% chance of victory
Oct. 26 vs. Michigan State (66th): 75.4% chance of victory
Nov. 2 vs. Oregon (8th): 32.6% chance of victory
Nov. 9 at Indiana (14th): 27.2% chance of victory
Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (87th): 86.3% chance of victory
Nov. 30 at Ohio State (2nd): 7.6% chance of victory
What’s next for the Wolverines?
Michigan is on the bye this week after a 4-2 start to the season and coming off a 27-17 loss to Washington in Week 6. The Wolverines are back in action on Oct. 19 against Illinois in a game set for a 3:30 p.m. kickoff on CBS.
