Michigan football's FPI win probabilities vs. PSU, OSU shift after bye week
The Michigan Wolverines had a week to rest up with a bye and hold an 8-0 record heading into November. The table has been set for what will be the defining stretch of the season in hopes of defending a Big Ten title and winning a national championship.
ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing with an 11.3-1.1 record on the season, ranking No. 2 in the country, staying put in the same spot from last week’s rankings. The Wolverines ranked sixth heading into the start of their 2023 season. At one point this year, the metric had U-M ranked 14th during the non-conference.
Only Ohio State ranks ahead of Michigan with Alabama, Oregon and Penn State rounding out the top five. Georgia, Florida State, Oklahoma, Texas and LSU make up the rest of the teams in the top ten.
Michigan’s chances against Penn State and Ohio State have also increased from last week’s update. U-M is now at 54.6% to beat PSU on the road on Nov. 11, while they are 53.8% likely to take care of the Buckeyes at home on Nov. 25.
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So what exactly is FPI?
“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”
After Sunday’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.
Michigan football’s updated FPI outlook and win projections
| Rank | Proj. W-L | Win Out% | 6+ Wins% | Win Division% | Win Conference% | Playoff% | Make NC% | Win NC% |
| 2 | 11.3-1.1 | 23.5% | 100.0% | 37.2% | 34.3% | 49.2% | 28.0% | 15.6% |
Sept. 2 vs. East Carolina (FPI rank: 100th) – 30-3 W (1-0)
Sept. 9 vs. UNLV (84th) – 35-7 W (1-0)
Sept. 16 vs. Bowling Green (99th) – 31-6 W (3-0)
Sept. 23 vs. Rutgers (44th) – 31-7 W (4-0, 1-0 B1G)
Sept. 30 at Nebraska (61st) – 45-7 W (5-0, 2-0 B1G)
Oct. 7 at Minnesota (53rd) – 52-10 W (6-0, 3-0 B1G)
Oct. 14 vs. Indiana (85th) – 52-7 W (7-0, 4-0 B1G)
Oct. 21 at Michigan State (77th) – 49-0 W (8-0, 5-0 B1G)
Oct. 28 – BYE
Nov. 4 vs. Purdue (73rd) – 97.6% chance of victory
Nov. 11 at Penn State (5th) – 54.2% chance of victory
Nov. 18 at Maryland (32nd) – 87.9% chance of victory
Nov. 25 vs. Ohio State (1st) – 53.8% chance of victory
What’s next for U-M football?
Michigan is back in action next Saturday night at home against the Purdue Boilermakers in a contest set for 7:30 p.m. NBC will carry the telecast, which will also be available on streaming via the Peacock app.
