What they're saying about J.J. McCarthy's draft stock heading into Big Ten play

The Michigan Wolverines are 3-0 after a softer non-conference slate than some would prefer to see. Coming out of it, the play of junior quarterback J.J. McCarthy was a major storyline with some speculating on his stock heading into the 2024 NFL Draft.

McCarthy entered Week 3 against Bowling Green with slightly more incompletions (7) than touchdown passes (5) while throwing for 558 yards and hitting on 48-for-55 (87%) of his throws. Then, he put up an uncharacteristic 8-for-13 performance with 143 yards, two touchdowns and a career-high three interceptions against BGSU.

Coming out of Michigan’s non-conference play, Pro Football Focus ranks McCarthy as the No. 9 quarterback in the country with a 91.7 overall grade. What happens next will determine where his stock goes, but most believe he still has a chance to emerge from the 2023 season as a first-round-caliber prospect.

Here is a sampling of what national draft analysts had to say about the Michigan quarterback this past week.

Steve Muensch, ESPN.com

Who is the class’ QB3 behind USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye?
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan. Tough timing here on this question, as McCarthy is coming off arguably the worst game of his career after throwing for three interceptions against Bowling Green on Saturday. He can get into trouble when he tries to make too much happen, though the tape wasn’t quite as bad as the stat line.

Even after the rough start, I decided to stick with him as QB3 right now for the same reasons I ranked him there coming into the season. McCarthy is an effective intermediate-level passer who is more consistent than his completion percentage down the stretch in 2022 might suggest (53.6% in final six games). And while he needs to strike a better balance, he’s not afraid to be aggressive and attack. McCarthy is 15-1 as a starter, and the way he battled against TCU in the College Football Playoff last season shows his toughness and resolve even when almost everything goes wrong. Plus, at 6-foot-3 and 202 pounds, he has the mobility to extend plays and run for first downs.

Josh Edwards, CBS Sports

2024 NFL Mock Draft: Two teams control the first four selections as five QBs are taken in Round 1
No. 7 overall, Las Vegas Raiders: The jury is still out on J.J. McCarthy. The Bowling Green game was much worse than the prior two. It is known that Las Vegas is going to need a quarterback of the future.

Chris Trapasso, CBS Sports

2024 NFL Mock Draft: Patriots, Vikings, Seahawks take top-20 QBs; Cowboys continue adding to offense
No. 10 overall, Seattle Seahawks: McCarthy has the arm talent and predisposition to let it rip downfield that Pete Carroll will love, and it blends well with the likes of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at receiver.

Diante Lee, The Athletic

2024 NFL Draft QB tracker: Jayden Daniels stays hot; Joe Milton, J.J. McCarthy struggle
After posting QB ratings above 90 in his first two games to open the season, McCarthy suffered a significant regression to the mean against Bowling Green. Give credit to the defense on his first interception — defensive back Jalen Huskey sniffed out the route and left his man to jump the pass.

The second interception, however, came on a poor decision and underthrown post route, and the third was an unnecessary heave along the sideline while McCarthy tried to escape pressure. He even underthrew one of his two touchdowns, but WR Cornelius Johnson managed to bat the ball away from a defender and into his own hands. It seemed like McCarthy was aiming the ball on his worst throws of the night — an old habit that looked to be broken and something that needs to be ironed out as conference play begins.

Mitch Kaiser, Pro Football Focus

College Football 2023: 10 highest-graded quarterbacks through Week 3
No quarterback in the country looked as good as McCarthy over the first two games. However, his three turnover-worthy plays were all picked off last Saturday, leaving him with a 47.4 PFF grade for the week.

That said, his 10.0% big-time throw rate still ranks 10th among FBS signal-callers, and he boasts the highest completion percentage in the country at 82.4%. His pocket presence and confidence are night and day from a season ago.

What’s next for Michigan?

The Wolverines are in action on Saturday afternoon at 12 p.m. ET against Rutgers. The broadcast from Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor will take place on Big Ten Network.