By the numbers: Michigan looking to stay perfect in non-conference home games under Jim Harbaugh

Michigan Wolverines football is looking to start off another season on the right note in its matchup with Colorado State Saturday afternoon (noon ET on ABC). Under eighth-year head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Maize and Blue are 5-2 in season-openers, with the two losses coming at Utah in 2015 (24-17) and at Notre Dame in 2018 (24-17).

In season-openers at The Big House, Harbaugh and Co. are 3-0. The average score of those contests, all against non-Power Five opponents, is 50-12.7, a 37.3-point average margin. In fact, Michigan has been perfect in non-conference home games under Harbaugh, going 16-0, with signature victories against BYU (2015), Colorado (2016), Notre Dame (2019) and Washington (2021). All three of U-M’s non-conference tilts this year will be played at The Big House, with the other opponents being Hawai’i and UConn.

This matchup will mark Colorado State’s first trip to Michigan Stadium. The Wolverines and Rams have faced off only once before, in the 1994 Holiday Bowl, a 24-14 U-M triumph to cap off Gary Moeller‘s final season at the helm in Ann Arbor.

Michigan is 7-1 all time against the Mountain West Conference and has a chance to improve that mark to 9-1 this season, with the Rainbow Warriors heading to town next week (Sept. 10).

New-look Colorado State team

Colorado State has a new head coach in Jay Norvell, who was hired from in-conference foe Nevada, and 10 new assistants, five of whom worked for him at Nevada at one point or another.

There are also 54 newcomers to the roster, including 11 transfers from the Wolf Pack and several freshmen who decommitted from that program and joined Norvell in Fort Collins. All told, the Rams added 25 players either from the transfer portal or the JUCO ranks.

To put in perspective just how unique it is to be playing a season-opener against a team that received such a facelift in the offseason, Michigan is watching film on at least four different programs in preparation for Saturday — Colorado State’s personnel, Nevada’s offense, Montana State’s defense and UTSA‘s special teams.

Michigan vs. Colorado State betting trends

It’s a new season, but there are some betting trends to watch for Michigan — a 30.5-point favorite — and Colorado State.

Michigan fared well against the spread (ATS) last season, going 11-3. The Wolverines were 3-0 ATS in non-conference contests and 6-1 in home outings a year ago. The over/under was much harder to read, with seven contests going over and seven going under. The projected point total for Saturday is 61.5.

Only four 2021 Michigan games went over 61.5 points last season — a 63-10 win over Northern Illinois, a 37-33 loss at Michigan State, a 59-18 victory at Maryland and a 42-27 beatdown of Ohio State.

Meanwhile, just three of Colorado State’s contests went over 61.5 points last season, though six tilts did hit the game’s projected over, including the final four. Colorado State averaged just 23.7 points per game, tied for 97th in the nation.

The Rams were 4-8 ATS in 2021 and failed to cover their last six clashes.

By the numbers: Michigan vs. Colorado State

1 Colorado State player — redshirt freshman tight end Tanner Arkin — was named preseason All-Mountain West. A former three-star recruit per the On3 Consensus, Arkin is taking over the position for 2021 Mackey Award winner Trey McBride, a second-round draft pick and Arizona Cardinals rookie.

2-2 Was Michigan’s record against Norvell during his playing career at Iowa from 1982-85. The Wolverines won the first two meetings (1982-83) and dropped the last two (1984-85). Harbaugh was U-M’s starting quarterback for both of those losses and was on the roster for all four contests. The two head coaches were also teammates with the Chicago Bears in 1987.

3 Career pass attempts for Colorado State redshirt freshman quarterback Clay Millen, the projected starter. He’s played in just two contests with 2 completions for 18 yards. He threw for 292 yards and 4 touchdowns in the Rams’ April 23 spring game.

3 Michigan players hail from the State of Colorado, all offensive linemen: junior Reece Atteberry (Aurora), freshman Andrew Gentry (Littleton) and freshman Connor Jones (Monument).

4 Seven-plus win seasons and bowl games for Norvell in five seasons at Nevada. He compiled a 33-26 record in his first head-coaching stop. He’s Colorado State’s fourth head coach in the last nine seasons.

8 Returning starters for the Michigan offense, which racked up 6,203 yards last season, the second-most ever by a U-M team. The defense is tasked with replacing seven full-time starters but has six players who have made five-plus career starts.

13-36 Is Colorado State’s record against ranked opponents since 1993. In that same time frame, the Rams have a 2-17 mark against top-10 teams (Michigan ranks No. 8 in the preseason AP Poll). CSU has not beaten a ranked team since taking down top-10 Colorado in 2002.

49.7 Percent of Michigan senior quarterback Cade McNamara‘s drives have ended in points (80 of 161), a metric on which Harbaugh places great importance. McNamara, a team captain, will get the Week 1 starting nod and is the program’s record-holder for highest career completion percentage (65.2) and lowest career interception percentage (1.51 percent).

92 Career combined starts for the expected Colorado State starting offensive line, though none of them have come together as a unit.

116-23-3 Is Michigan’s overall record in season-opening tilts.

976 Wins for Michigan football, which dates back to 1879, the most in college football history. The Wolverines have won a conference-leading 43 Big Ten championships and 11 national titles.