Michigan football: Opening lines released for MSU, Penn State, Ohio State games
Michigan football is gearing up for another run at the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff this year, but will have to earn it playing in one of the toughest divisions in the country. The Big Ten East provides showdown games with Michigan State, Penn State and Ohio State and FanDuel Sportsbook has posted its early opening lines for the contests.
First up on the docket is the Michigan at MSU matchup in East Lansing on Oct. 21. FanDuel’s opening odds list the Wolverines as a 15-point favorite over their rivals, who went 5-7 last season and missed a bowl game. Michigan won a 29-7 game in Ann Arbor, ending a two-game win streak for head coach Mel Tucker over the Wolverines.
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Michigan travels to a historically-tough environment at Penn State on Nov. 11. The Wolverines are listed as a 1.5-point road favorite in that matchup. The Wolverines grabbed a 41-17 victory over Penn State last season in Ann Arbor. The Nittany Lions would bounce back from it, finishing the 2022 season with an 11-2 record and win over Utah in the Rose Bowl. PSU’s only losses came at Michigan and home vs. Ohio State.
The Game between Michigan and Ohio State also has an early opening line. The Nov. 25 showdown in Ann Arbor has the Wolverines listed as a slim 1-point favorite. The Wolverines will be looking to extend their win streak over the Buckeyes to three games after a 42-27 win in Ann Arbor in 2021 and 45-23 victory in Columbus last season. Both rivals made the College Football Playoff with a chance to play each other for a national title. They would lose to TCU and Georgia, respectively.
Michigan bringing back a ‘jarring’ and experienced group
Ohio State and Michigan are once again considered the class of the Big Ten, ranking No. 2 and 3 in ESPN’s SP+ metric. Plenty of scribes and pundits have continued to rank the Buckeyes over Michigan during the offseason in what is essentially a recruiting talent composite vs. established player debate.
Of course, Michigan brings back the brunt of the experience. As our Clayton Sayfie wrote recently, Michigan ranks No. 5 in the country in returning production. The Wolverines bring back 14 players that started at least half of the Wolverines’ games in 2022 (six offense and eight defense).
“On average, teams returning at least 80 percent of production improve by about 5.8 adjusted points per game in the following season’s SP+ ratings,” Connelly wrote. “That’s a pretty significant bump! For a team ranked 25th in SP+ last year, adding 5.8 points to its rating would have bumped it to 10th. And in the past two seasons that weren’t majorly impacted by a pandemic (2019 and 2022), the average improvement for teams at 80 percent or higher is 6.8 points.”
“It’s pretty jarring to see a team that made the CFP one year also rank in the top five in returning production the next,” he continued.
