Previewing Michigan vs. Penn State with a Nittany Lion insider

TheWolverine.com caught up with BlueWhiteIllustrated.com‘s Nate Bauer to gather some intel on the Nittany Lions ahead of their clash with Michigan this Saturday.

Bauer gave a projected starting lineup, broke down the team’s strengths and weaknesses and made a final score prediction.

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Penn State Projected Starters On Offense

• Fifth-year senior QB Sean Clifford — He’s completed 199 of his 311 pass attempts for 2,371 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions. He’s also rushed for 122 yards and two touchdowns on 61 carries.

• Junior RB Noah Cain — He leads the team with 293 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 93 carries. Sophomore Keyvone Lee rotates in and has accumulated 296 rushing yards and one score on 56 attempts.

• Senior WR Jahan Dotson — The 5-11, 184-pounder had a Penn State-record 242 receiving yards and scored three touchdowns last week against Maryland. He leads the Nittany Lions with 932 receiving yards (second in the Big Ten) on 71 receptions with nine touchdowns. He lines up wide on 77.3 percent of his snaps and in the slot on the other 22.7 percent of plays, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• Sophomore WR Parker Washington — He’s second on the team with 498 receiving yards on 43 catches with two touchdowns. He lines up in the slot on 90.8 percent of his snaps.

• Sophomore WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith — His 27 grabs and 419 receiving yards rank third on the squad, and he’s scored two touchdowns on the season. He plays out wide 84.7 percent of the time when he’s in.

• Redshirt sophomore TE Brenton Strange — He’s notched 14 catches for 156 yards and three touchdowns, and has a 72.6 PFF run-blocking rating that ranks second on the team among players who have seen 100-plus snaps.

• Redshirt junior LT Rasheed Walker — The 6-6, 325-pounder and 2020 third-team All-Big Ten standout has started 25 career clashes. His 59.5 overall PFF grade slots 27th on the offense, and he’s given up two sacks and 19 pressures on the year.

• Senior LG Eric Wilson — The Harvard transfer and 6-4, 307-pounder has opened the team’s last eight contests. His 66.9 overall PFF grade ranks seventh on the unit, with a 72.7 pass-blocking rating that is the highest among the starting offensive linemen. He’s yielded two sacks and eight pressures.

• Fifth-year senior C Mike Miranda — The 6-3, 305-pounder has started 26 career games for the Nittany Lions. His 62.8 overall PFF grade ranks 15th on the offense, and he’s given up two sacks and 10 pressures this year.

• Redshirt junior RG Juice Scruggs — The 6-3, 307-pounder is set to start his 10th career outing. His 66.9 overall PFF rating slots seventh on the offense and his 71.8 pass-blocking grade is second on the starting O-line. He’s yet to allow a sack but has given up 11 pressures.

• Redshirt sophomore RT Caedan Wallace — The 6-5, 323-pounder has opened 16 career contests. His 48.3 overall PFF rating is 40th out of 41 on the offense, and he’s yielded team highs in sacks (four) and pressures (26).

Penn State Projected Starters On Defense

• Fifth-year senior DT Derrick Tangelo — The Duke transfer has registered 20 tackles, 4.5 stops for loss, two sacks, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery, with nine pressures.

• Redshirt freshman DT Coziah Izzard — He’s made 12 stops, two tackles for loss, one sack and one quarterback hurry.

• Fifth-year senior DE Arnold Ebiketie — The Temple transfer is fourth on the team with 46 tackles, and has made 13.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks and five quarterback hurries. His 90.1 PFF pass-rushing grade tops the team, and he’s notched 37 pressures.

• Senior DE Jesse Luketa — He missed the last game with an injury but could potentially return for this one. He’s accumulated 34 tackles, six stops for loss, a half-sack, one interception, five quarterback hurries and 11 pressures.

• Junior LB Brandon Smith — He’s second on the squad with 61 tackles, while adding 8.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, four pass breakups, three quarterback hurries and one forced fumble. He’s the Nittany Lions’ top cover man from the linebacker spot, having yielded 24 receptions for just 166 yards on 31 targets.

• Fifth-year senior LB Ellis Brooks — His 69 tackles are the most on the team. He’s contributed 2.5 stops for loss, one sack and one pass breakup, and has notched 11 pressures.

• Sophomore LB Curtis Jacobs — He’s posted 37 tackles, five stops for loss, two sacks, one interception and one quarterback hurry.

• Fifth-year senior CB Tariq Castro-Fields — He’s made a team-leading six pass breakups, while adding 27 tackles. In coverage, he’s yielded 22 receptions for 292 yards and one touchdown on 42 challenges.

• Redshirt sophomore CB Joey Porter Jr. — He’s recorded 40 tackles, four pass breakups, one interception and one forced fumble. On 44 targets in coverage, he’s allowed 28 receptions for 292 yards and no touchdowns.

• Senior S Ji’Ayir Brown — He’s third on the squad with 48 tackles, including one for loss, and has made a team-high four interceptions while adding four pass breakups, two fumble recoveries and one forced fumble. He’s given up 14 receptions for 153 yards and two touchdowns on 22 targets in coverage.

• Fifth-year senior S Jaquan Brisker — His 43 tackles rank fifth on the team, and he’s contributed five stops for loss, four pass breakups, two interceptions, one quarterback hurry and one fumble recovery. He’s given up 11 receptions for 87 yards and one score on 20 targets in coverage.

Penn State Specialist

• Fifth-year senior K/P Jordan Stout — Handles kickoff, place kicking and punting duties for the Nittany Lions. He’s 13 of 18 on field goals, with a long of 50 yards and a 4-of-7 mark on kicks of 40-plus yards. He has punted 47 times with an average of 46.7 yards per boot and 21 pins inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. He has notched 44 touchbacks on 48 kickoffs.

Top Strength Of PSU’s Offense

“Receiver Jahan Dotson is a stud,” Bauer said. “He might not be a superlatives guy in terms of size (5-11, 184) or speed, but he catches everything, and Penn State’s offense has relied heavily on that fact this season.

“His 71 catches for 932 yards and nine touchdowns are all better than his outstanding 2020 season in the same amount of games, and only twice has he been kept both under 100 yards and out of the end zone.”

Biggest Weakness Of PSU’s Offense

“The glaring weakness is absolutely a running game that can’t get going, for which the blame can be spread all over,” Bauer began. “However, that’s not where I’m going with this answer.

“The true vulnerability of this Penn State offense is how limited its options are when Sean Clifford isn’t playing well. The fifth-year senior quarterback has at times been very good this season, but the combination of opponents stopping him, and his health challenges in the middle of the year, have taken an already inconsistent offense and crippled it at times.”

Clifford has been especially erratic when facing pressure. According to PFF, he’s completing just 45.8 percent of his passes when under heat, and five of his six interceptions have come in those situations.

“Important, critical note about who and what this team is offensively: Against Power Five opponents, Penn State has yet to score more than 28 points offensively in a game,” Bauer pointed out.

Top Strength Of PSU’s Defense

“Illinois surely didn’t make it seem this way, but the prioritization of stopping the run has largely been successful and is the foundation of what Penn State’s defense does,” Bauer said, dispelling the notion that the Nittany Lions are weak against the run. 

“The numbers are more or less middling, allowing 137.2 yards per game on the ground, but two elements are created from it that matter. The first is a pass defense that can be aggressive and takes advantage of third-and-long situations while not letting much get behind it. And the second is a red-zone production that is sixth in the nation at allowing just 62.9 percent scoring on trips into Penn State’s scoring area. 

“The concept that defensive coordinator Brent Pry is betting on is fairly straightforward: Most college offenses aren’t mature enough to plod their way down the field time and time again through a game, and Penn State is opportunistic when it counts. In other words, bend but don’t break exemplified.”

Biggest Weakness Of PSU’s Defense

While the Penn State front seven has been solid for the most part, Michigan and its 234.1 rushing yards per game present a big challenge. Injuries have taken their toll, as well.

“They’re pretty good overall, but Michigan’s rushing strength might stress the interior of the Nittany Lions’ defensive line that has been weakened in the absence of P.J. Mustipher,” Bauer said. “The senior D-tackle went down to a season-ending injury at Iowa and, though the likes of Coziah Izzard, Derrick Tangelo, and D’von Ellies, have largely managed to hold their own, a pounding Michigan front and bruising tailbacks could test the lack of depth and experience there.”

Bauer’s Final Score Prediction

“I’m probably letting historical perspectives come into play here, but I just don’t see a ton of points for either side in this one,” Bauer began. “The first team to 24 wins, maybe?

“I think both defenses are probably better than the respective offenses they’ll be facing. I think Michigan will have some success moving the ball between the 20s. I think Penn State will probably hit on a couple of chunk passing plays. And I think there will be plenty of punting.

“I’m going to give the home team its three-point bonus.

Prediction: Penn State 24, Michigan 23