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Michigan football's projected record, bowl prediction updated by ESPN

Anthony Broomeby:Anthony Broome•10/03/22•

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Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) passes to the end zone for a touchdown during a college football game between the Michigan Wolverines and the Iowa Hawkeyes, October 01, 2022, at Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA. Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images),

Michigan football moved to 5-0 on the season with a 27-14 win over Iowa at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday afternoon. It was a mostly dominant effort in a recent house of horrors for top-5 teams, which has solidified the Wolverines’ standing among the national elite.

ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks the Wolverines 4th in the country behind Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia, respectively. Clemson is behind them and rounds out the top 5.

FPI has Michigan finishing with a 10.7-1.6 record on the season. All of the numbers took a tick upward this week after passing a difficult road test.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

Other FPI percentages on Michigan’s resume include:

Win Out: 7.7%

Six Wins or More: 100%

Win Big Ten East: 23.3%

Win Big Ten: 18.1%

College Football Playoff: 40.7%

Make National Title Game: 15.7%

Win National Title: 5.6%

Each week, we will update Michigan’s resume and also take a look ahead to the rest of the 2022 schedule. Here is how it breaks down ahead of Week 6.

Michigan football’s FPI outlook

Sept. 3 vs. Colorado State: 51-7 W (1-0)

Sept. 10 vs. Hawaii: 56-10 W (2-0)

Sept. 17 vs. UConn: 59-0 W (3-0)

Sept. 24 vs. Maryland: 34-27 W (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Oct. 1 at Iowa: 27-14 W (5-0, 2-0 B1G)

Oct. 8 at Indiana: 91.9% chance of victory

Oct. 15 vs. Penn State: 71.0% chance of victory

Oct. 29 vs. Michigan State: 85.5% chance of victory

Nov. 5 at Rutgers: 92.4% chance of victory

Nov. 12 vs. Nebraska: 95.2% chance of victory

Nov. 19 vs. Illinois: 87.4% chance of victory

Nov. 26 at Ohio State: 22.6% chance of victory

Bowl projections and what’s next

ESPN also put out its latest batch of bowl projections with both Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach predicting a Rose Bowl appearance for Michigan against the USC Trojans.

Saturday’s game in Bloomington is set for a 12 p.m. ET kickoff and will be broadcast nationally via Fox’s Big Noon Saturday coverage. Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt and Jenny Taft will be on the broadcast call for the game for the 3rd consecutive week.

Michigan’s October slate from there involves a home game vs. Penn State on Oct. 15. A bye week follows before returning to game action against Michigan State at home on Oct. 29.

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