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Michigan football: Game-by-game predictions, Big Ten title percentages updated after bye

Anthony Broomeby:Anthony Broome•10/24/22•

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Michigan rushing offense got off to a slower start against ECU, but it opened the passing game.(Photo by Lon Horwedel / TheWolverine.com)

Michigan football is back in action this week after the bye, welcoming the rival Michigan State Spartans to Ann Arbor. They had a break during a relatively quiet week in college football without much of a shakeup in the rankings or projections.

FPI has Michigan finishing with a 11.2-1.1 record on the season. The Wolverines rank 4th among teams in the FPI rankings behind Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia. Tennessee, Texas, Clemson, Utah, LSU and USC round out the top 10. Some of U-M’s percentages did dip this week, likely due to OSU’s blowout of Iowa changing the math a bit.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

Other FPI percentages on Michigan’s resume include:

Win Out: 14.8%

Six Wins or More: 100%

Win Big Ten East: 28.4%

Win Big Ten: 23.9%

College Football Playoff: 48.8%

Make National Title Game: 21.3%

Win National Title: 8.8%

Each week, we will update Michigan’s resume and also take a look ahead to the rest of the 2022 schedule. Here is how it breaks down ahead of Week 9 and a rivalry showdown with Michigan State

Michigan football’s FPI outlook

Sept. 3 vs. Colorado State: 51-7 W (1-0)

Sept. 10 vs. Hawaii: 56-10 W (2-0)

Sept. 17 vs. UConn: 59-0 W (3-0)

Sept. 24 vs. Maryland: 34-27 W (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Oct. 1 at Iowa: 27-14 W (5-0, 2-0 B1G)

Oct. 8 at Indiana: 31-10 W (6-0, 3-0 B1G)

Oct. 15 vs. Penn State: 41-17 W (7-0, 4-0 B1G)

Oct. 29 vs. Michigan State: 90.2% chance of victory

Nov. 5 at Rutgers: 94.1% chance of victory

Nov. 12 vs. Nebraska: 96.0% chance of victory

Nov. 19 vs. Illinois: 88.2% chance of victory

Nov. 26 at Ohio State: 24.3% chance of victory

Bowl projections and what’s next

Both ESPN projectors – Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach – have Michigan playing in the Rose Bowl on against Oregon. The Wolverines have not moved from that destination in their projections since the beginning of the season.

Michigan’s game against Michigan State kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night with the broadcast set for ABC.

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