Michigan football's resume takes a hit in latest ESPN FPI projections
Michigan football moved to 4-0 on the season with a 34-27 win over Maryland on Saturday afternoon, but it was not very comfortable for a decent chunk of the game. This has led people to question the validity of the Wolverines’ standing among the national elite.
ESPN’s Football Power Index adjusted its numbers but thinks people should settle down.
FPI has Michigan finishing with a 10.2-2.0 record on the season. Everything took a bit of a downtick this week after a close call against the Terrapins and adjusting for action across the country.
So what exactly is FPI?
“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”
Other FPI percentages on Michigan’s resume include:
Win Out: 3.8%
Six Wins or More: 100%
Win Big Ten East: 18.3%
Win Big Ten: 11.7%
College Football Playoff: 29.9%
Make National Title Game: 10.6%
Win National Title: 3.6%
Each week, we will update Michigan’s resume and also take a look ahead to the rest of the 2022 schedule. Here is how it breaks down ahead of Week 5.
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Michigan football’s FPI outlook
Sept. 3 vs. Colorado State: 51-7 W (1-0)
Sept. 10 vs. Hawaii: 56-10 W (2-0)
Sept. 17 vs. UConn: 59-0 W (3-0)
Sept. 24 vs. Maryland: 34-27 W (4-0, 1-0 B1G)
Oct. 1 at Iowa: 76.8% chance of victory
Oct. 8 at Indiana: 90.1% chance of victory
Oct. 15 vs. Penn State: 64.0% chance of victory
Oct. 29 vs. Michigan State: 83.2% chance of victory
Nov. 5 at Rutgers: 91.0% chance of victory
Nov. 12 vs. Nebraska: 95.3% chance of victory
Nov. 19 vs. Illinois: 89.5% chance of victory
Nov. 26 at Ohio State: 21.2% chance of victory
Bowl projections and what’s next
ESPN also put out its latest batch of bowl projections with both Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach predicting a Rose Bowl appearance for Michigan against the USC Trojans.
Saturday’s game at Kinnick Stadium is set for a 12 p.m. ET kickoff and will be broadcast nationally via Fox’s Big Noon Saturday coverage. Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt and Jenny Taft will once again be on the broadcast call for the game.
Michigan’s October slate from there involves a trip to Indiana on Oct. 8 followed by a home game vs. Penn State on Oct. 15. A bye week follows before returning to game action against Michigan State at home on Oct. 29.
