Michigan football schedule prediction improves after USC win, per ESPN FPI
The Michigan Wolverines grabbed a victory on Saturday with a 27-24 win over Big Ten opponent USC. Following the win, some of the analytics have been adjusted to account for the first four weeks of performances heading into late September and early October.
ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing the year with an 7.5-4.6 record this season, moving up one spot to the metric’s No. 20 team in the country. It plays the No. 57 team in the FPI on Saturday with the Minnesota Golden Gophers coming to town. The Wolverines came into the year as the metric’s No. 12 team nationally.
A few other FPI numbers of note are a 2.6% chance of winning the Big Ten, a 11.3% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 0.5% chance of making the national championship game. Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 4 of its 8 remaining games, according to FPI. The metric suggests a higher likelihood of losses at Washington, vs. Oregon, at Indiana and at Ohio State.
So what exactly is FPI?
“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”
After this week’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.
Michigan football’s updated FPI outlook and win projections
| Win Out % | 6 Wins % | Win Conf% | Playoff% | Make NC% | Win NC% |
| 0.2% | 92.2 | 2.6% | 11.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Aug. 31 vs. Fresno State (FPI rank: 58th): 30-10 W (1-0)
Sept. 7 vs. Texas (1st): 31-12 L (1-1)
Sept. 14 vs. Arkansas St. (107th): 28-18 W (2-1)
Sept. 21 vs. USC (12th): 27-24 W (3-1, 1-0 B1G)
Sept. 28 vs. Minnesota (57th): 77.1% chance of victory
Oct. 5 at Washington (30th): 45.3% chance of victory
Oct. 19 at Illinois (40th): 62.1% chance of victory
Oct. 26 vs. Michigan State (60th): 77.7% chance of victory
Nov. 2 vs. Oregon (10th): 44.6% chance of victory
Nov. 9 at Indiana (15th): 39.3% chance of victory
Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (84th): 89.0% chance of victory
Nov. 30 at Ohio State (3rd): 12.7% chance of victory
What’s next for the Wolverines?
Michigan and Minnesota meet on Saturday in the Battle for the Little Brown Jug, which the Wolverines currently own. Game time is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX with U-M set as a 10-point favorite ahead of the rivalry showdown.
