Michigan football's remaining games ranked by win probability

Michigan football is out to a 7-0 start this season and enters its bye week ranked 4th in the nation. All of the Wolverines’ goals are still ahead of them. Beat Michigan State. Beat Ohio State. Win a Big Ten Championship. Win a national championship.

It is all there to be had.

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Before Michigan can think about its higher aspirations, it has to get through the final 5 weeks of the regular season. Two of those games provide an opportunity to knock out the above goals. The Wolverines close out the month of October with a rivalry tilt with Michigan State before a November slate that is a slow burn up until the final week of the regular season.

Using ESPN’s Football Power Index’s win percentages, here is how the rest of the games on the schedule rank with thoughts on each contest.

1. at Ohio State (Nov. 26): FPI 24.9% chance of victory

Analysis: By far the toughest game left on the schedule features Michigan and Ohio State’s yearly season-ending clash. Michigan grabbed some momentum in a 42-27 win over the Buckeyes at home, but it did not do enough to move the needle as far as the national perspective goes. Should Michigan and Ohio State go into this game undefeated, there will be arguments made that both are still deserving of a spot in the College Football Playoff. The truth of it is, the game against OSU *is* a playoff game. There is no trip to Indianapolis without it. There likely is not a trip to the playoff without it.

As far as the percentages go, OSU will certainly be favored on its home field. Michigan at its best probably has higher than a 1-in-4 chance of beating the Buckeyes again. The computers felt similar about the Wolverines last year. Can they make it two in a row? The rest of the season is a buildup to answer that very question.

2. vs. Illinois (Nov. 19): FPI 88.6% chance of victory

Analysis: Despite Illinois’ 6-1 record, the computers have not changed their stance on Michigan’s game with them just yet. Right now, Bret Bielema’s team looks like the group to beat in the Big Ten West, but there is still a lot of season to go, especially on that side of the conference. The Illini still have to go to Nebraska, play Michigan State and Purdue at home, head to the Big House and close the season out at Northwestern.

Illinois plays a stout, physical style of football that will serve as more of a test the week before Ohio State than expected. Given the chippy football game it is likely to be, this is one where you hope Michigan is able to stay healthy and limit the bumps and bruises. It could also be a potential preview of the Big Ten Championship game two weeks later. Illinois’ run game will test Michigan’s defense, but this should still be a multiple-score victory.

3. vs. Michigan State (Oct. 29): FPI 90.3% chance of victory

Analysis: If this list was a ranking based on opinion, MSU would take the No. 2 spot. Up until last week’s win at Wisconsin, this program looked lifeless over the last month of the season. The Spartans were able to salvage a victory and now have good vibes heading into a two-week build-up to the Michigan game. There is probably not an area on paper were someone would not favor Michigan in the Oct. 29 contest, but this has never been a rivalry played on paper.

The Wolverines are 0-2 against Mel Tucker. Make excuses about the COVID season all you want. Shake your first at the sky at the officiating and Kenneth Walker in the 2021 loss to the Spartans. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s record against Tucker is what it says it is. MSU always plays up for this game. Will Michigan stay focused? The gut says yes. They have had this one circled for awhile. The Wolverines do not want another special season blemished by a loss to a Spartan team they are clearly better than.

4. at Rutgers (Nov. 5):  FPI 94.5% chance of victory

Analysis: It is hard to see where Rutgers wins a game the rest of this season after a 3-0 non-conference record. The Scarlet Knights have dropped 3-straight games since their win streak to start the year and let a winnable game against Nebraska slip through their fingers a few weeks back. Rutgers hosts Indiana, goes to Minnesota, hosts Michigan, travels to Michigan State, hosts Penn State and closes out the year at Maryland. The Indiana and Maryland games might be their only shot at cracking more than 3 wins this season.

The last time Michigan traveled to Rutgers, it barely escaped in an odd, and arguably course-altering victory in Piscataway. If the Wolverines lost to Rutgers during the COVID season, there might have been very different conversations about Harbaugh’s future in Ann Arbor. This year’s game will not be close, but there is a potential MSU hangover in play. Michigan is too talented to drop this one, though.

5. vs. Nebraska (Nov. 12): FPI 96.1% chance of victory

Analysis: It was a nightmarish start to the year for Nebraska, yet there are right in the thick of the Big Ten West race, as is everyone out there. This game will no longer feature the Scott Frost vs. Michigan subplot that has been fun to follow in recent years, but there could still be something for them to play for. Home games against Illinois and Minnesota before a trip to Ann Arbor will determine what is on the line the rest of this season.

This was once thought of as a trap game for the Wolverines. It still could be given U-M’s knack for getting everyone’s best shot (except for Penn State). We will see what happens, but the computers like this as the most winnable game left on the schedule.