Big Ten over/under win totals released by Vegas: Best and worst bets, surprises
The doldrums of the offseason are in full gear, but we have a batch of new over/under win totals from Vegas Insider. The Michigan Wolverines, coming off a Big Ten Championship in 2021, have theirs set at 9.5 heading into the 2022 campaign.
The Ohio State Buckeyes lead the way at 10.5 with the implication being that Nov. 26’s showdown with Michigan will be with the Big Ten East title on the line.
Here are a look at some of the best and worst bets to come from the conference win totals. First, we start with Michigan.
Best bet: Michigan over 9.5 wins
There are legitimate reasons to be concerned about Michigan’s defense without Aidan Hutchinson, but a soft early schedule should help get their feet wet. Michigan has an easy non-conference slate of games, all at home, followed by a showdown with Maryland in Ann Arbor. They play road games at Iowa and Ohio State, but could still finish with 10 wins if they dropped both of them. A balanced offensive attack with layers that get peeled back over the course of the year – and an elite offensive line – should offset defensive concerns, barring disaster. The Wolverines have a legit shot to play in Indianapolis again.
Honorable mention: Iowa over 7.5 wins
Iowa will be lurking in the shadows of the Big Ten West again and has Michigan and Wisconsin at home this year. Other crossover games include Rutgers and Ohio State on the road. It still feels like there is enough to get to eight wins here.
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Worst bet: Penn State over 8.5 wins
The preseason hype – if that is what you want to call it – is a batch that is not worth buying. Head coach James Franklin, fresh off a new mega-extension, is 11-11 (8-10 B1G) over the last two campaigns. Quarterback Sean Clifford returns, but this group has road games at Purdue and Auburn in the first three weeks. It plays Michigan on the road on Oct. 15. A win over Ohio State seems unlikely and Michigan State to end the year could be a toss-up.
If 8.5 wins stays on the board, smash the under.
Honorable mention: Ohio State under 10.5 wins
One would expect the Buckeyes to be on the warpath this year after Michigan ended their reign of terror on the conference in 2021. They will open against Notre Dame in Columbus, which could be an intriguing swing game. Wisconsin and Michigan also come to the Horseshoe this year. The under hitting in this bet seems contingent on slipping up against Michigan State or Penn State. The Buckeyes’ firepower should prevent that from happening, though they did go 10-2 last year in the regular season. It’s not the worst bet, just far from the safest.
Could surprise: Northwestern
This should not surprise anyone at this point. Northwestern is the king of good season, followed by a bad season, followed by a good season. They played for a Big Ten Championship in 2020 before falling to 3-9 (1-8 B1G) last year. The Vegas over/unders currently have them set at 4.5 wins. Non-conference games against Duke, Southern Illinois and Miami (OH) could provide a cushion for a strong start. Plus, they open the year against Nebraska in Ireland. If they can find a way to get one over on Scott Frost and the Cornhuskers in Week 0, the over could be a bet that hits before Halloween.
