What ESPN's FPI says about Michigan football: Projected record, national championship odds, strength of schedule, more
ESPN has released its Football Power Index (FPI) ahead of the 2023 season, and Michigan Wolverines football checks in as one of the top teams in the sport, ranking No. 12 overall.
Before diving into the rankings, here’s an explanation of what FPI is, from ESPN.com: “The FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game.”
Here’s what FPI says about Michigan ahead of the 2024 campaign.
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Strength of schedule
Michigan’s schedule is extremely difficult this season, highlighted by home games against Texas (Sept. 7), USC (Sept. 21) and Oregon (Nov. 2) and road tilts at Washington (Oct. 5) and Ohio State (Nov. 30).
According to FPI, the Wolverines have the 18th-toughest schedule in the nation. Florida, Mississippi State, Georgia, Kentucky and Auburn have the five most challenging nationally. The Wolverines’ slate ranks as the sixth-most difficult in the Big Ten, behind Purdue (11th), UCLA (12th), Washington (13th), Illinois (15th) and Ohio State (16th).
Overall ranking and projected record
As mentioned, Michigan ranks No. 12 in the country entering the season, behind No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Oregon, No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Ohio State, No. 5 Alabama, No. 6 Penn State, No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 9 Tennessee, No. 10 Missouri and No. 11 Florida State.
FPI projects Michigan’s regular-season record to be 8.3-3.9. Rounding to the nearest game, that’d put the Maize and Blue at 8-4. They have won just eight games in a full-length regular season since posting that identical number in 2017.
Michigan has a 92.4-percent chance to win six games and become bowl eligible.
Chances to win the Big Ten
Michigan has won the Big Ten crown each of the last three seasons, but FPI doesn’t believe it will win a fourth consecutive title. In fact, per the metric the Wolverines have just a 7.3-percent chance to stand atop the conference.
FPI gives Oregon (37.5 percent) the best odds of winning the Big Ten, followed by Ohio State (25.7 percent) and Penn State (22.2 percent).
College Football Playoff odds
The College Football Playoff has expanded from four to 12 teams, and while Michigan has made the last three events, FPI gives it just a 28.5-percent chance to make the field in 2024. The metric has them with a 4-percent chance to make the national championship and a 1.7-percent chance to repeat as national champions. The Maize and Blue have an 0.7-percent likelihood of winning all of their games en route to another title.
