What they're saying, predicting before Michigan takes on Minnesota for the Little Brown Jug
Michigan Wolverines football was impressive in a 45-7 blowout win over Nebraska last weekend, putting the nation on notice after a quiet, but dominant, first four contests. The Maize and Blue are on the road for the second straight week, set for a clash against Minnesota with the Little Brown Jug — college football’s oldest trophy game — at stake.
Here’s a look around the internet at what the media is saying before kickoff.
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Media predicts outcome of Michigan vs. Minnesota
TheWolverine.com
Chris Balas: Michigan 34, Minnesota 10
John Borton: Michigan 41, Minnesota 6
Clayton Sayfie: Michigan 38, Minnesota 9
Anthony Broome: Michigan 35, Minnesota 13
Doug Skene: Michigan 42, Minnesota 10
MLive
Ryan Zuke: Michigan 41, Minnesota 10
Andrew Kahn: Michigan 38, Minnesota 13
Aaron McMann: Michigan 35, Minnesota 14
The Detroit News
Angelique S. Chengelis: Michigan 31, Minnesota 13
John Niyo: Michigan 35, Minnesota 10
Tony Paul: Michigan 38, Minnesota 14
Bob Wojnowski: Michigan 37, Minnesota 9
The Athletic
Austin Meek: Michigan 31, Minnesota 13
Bob Wojnowski, The Detroit News: Wojo’s Pigskin Picks: Wolverines wary of Gophers, gravity and gristle
Jim Harbaugh is getting nervous, and that’s a positive sign. He’s nervous his team is doing so many good things, it’s bound to start doing bad things. I mean really bad, like maybe giving up a field goal and a touchdown in the exact same game. Also, they sometimes forget to score in the fourth quarter.
But mostly, he’s nervous someone will look up and notice the Wolverines are bashing pretty much the same opponent, over and over and over and over and over. The opponent is identifiable by these characteristics: smallish, slowish, skittish, not rated in the top 75 in any statistical category, including bench-pressing and throwing a spiral.
Michigan is 5-0, ranked No. 2 and has allowed these point totals in the past five games: 3, 7, 6, 7, 7. It’s more impressive when you consider they’ve allowed these point totals in the past six games: 51, 3, 7, 6, 7, 7.
I’m not here to denigrate the Wolverines’ comically cushy schedule. I’m here to point out that the last time they thought they were all high and mighty, they marched into the playoff semifinals and barfed on their shoes, losing to TCU, 51-45. It’s hard to see a shoe-barfing in the immediate future, but then it was hard to see that one coming. But Harbaugh knows it’s a short drop from gravy to gravity, and on Monday, he referenced one of the great football minds of the 17th century, Sir Isaac “Knute” Newton, who famously got hit by an apple and made a scientific discovery.
Bill Connelly, ESPN.com: What we know about Michigan, Georgia, Texas after one month
Michigan is the best team in the Big Ten (at the very least)
If you want to keep the “They ain’t played nobody” label slapped on Michigan’s resume for the time being, I can’t really stop you. Per SP+, the Wolverines have played the No. 112 schedule to date. They haven’t played a top-60 team yet, and they somehow won’t face a top-40 opponent until Week 11. Granted, the home stretch is rough — at Penn State (13th in SP+) in Week 11, at Maryland (31st) in Week 12, Ohio State (second) in Week 13 — but this back-loaded schedule is allowing Michigan to cruise.
If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times: It’s not who you play, it’s how you play. We can learn something about a team every single Saturday, and here’s what we’ve learned about the Wolverines through five cakey games:
First, they have the best defense of the Jim Harbaugh era. The bar is pretty high in that regard — they’ve finished seventh or better in defensive SP+ in six of Harbaugh’s eight seasons back in Ann Arbor — but evidence is pointing in that direction. They’re first in defensive SP+, first in success rate allowed, first in points allowed per drive, first in drive score percentage allowed (drives with a TD or field goal), seventh in three-and-out rate and, just for good measure, second in red zone touchdown rate allowed (not that they allow teams into the red zone).
In the first half of Saturday’s 45-7 win at Nebraska, the Wolverines picked off a pass on Nebraska’s second play, forced two punts and, in the one drive that NU actually moved the ball, they stuffed a fourth-and-1. The national average for my success rate measure (the percentage of time you gain 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second or 100% on third or fourth) is around 42%. Before garbage time, Nebraska’s was 21%. The Huskers made a couple of chunk plays in the second half, but the game was already over.
Second, they flip to cruise control very quickly. Here’s Michigan’s scoring margin by quarter.
Q1: 42-7 (+35)
Q2: 58-6 (+52)
Q3: 55-0 (+55)
Q4: 17-17 (+0)
Star rusher Blake Corum has 24 carries in the first quarter, 20 in the second, 26 in the third and four in the fourth. The starters play for 45 minutes and tag out, the backups lose some battles, and opponents snare some backdoor covers. Michigan is 1-3-1 against the spread this season, which is often the sign of a wobbly team. But it’s hard to make the case that there’s anything actually wobbly here. The defense is great, quarterback J.J. McCarthy ranks first in Total QBR … the Wolverines are flying, even if you adjust for their opponents.
Bill Connelly, ESPN.com: Strengths, weaknesses and rankings for all 22 remaining undefeated CFB teams
Biggest statistical strength: The most efficient defense in the country. It’s nice to have that to fall back on, isn’t it? The Wolverines rank first in success rate allowed (percentage of time an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth), first in points allowed per drive and, even once you’ve adjusted for a weak strength of schedule, second in defensive SP+. The moment you get the ball against them, you’re behind schedule.
Biggest statistical weakness: We don’t know what happens when they have to act with urgency. I guess that’s less of a weakness and more of an absence of known strength. Still, the passing game hasn’t been very aggressive (because it hasn’t had to be), the big plays aren’t particularly big and while the Wolverines have been great on third down, they’re also waiting until third down a lot: Only 67% of their first downs have come on first or second down — 67th in FBS and 17th among AP top-25 teams.
Randy Johnson, Star Tribune: Do Gophers have an upset formula for No. 2 Michigan? Randy Johnson’s prediction
ONE STAT THAT MATTERS
3 Red-zone scores allowed by Michigan (one TD, two field goals). Opponents have made only eight trips into the Wolverines red zone.
The Gophers will win if … they force multiple turnovers by Michigan and cash them in for touchdowns; they get an early lead and shorten the game with a running game that produces long drives; their defense avoids allowing explosive plays through 60 minutes; and their special teams make a positive difference in key moments.
The Wolverines will win if … they establish their dominance by scoring early and taking the Gophers’ run game away; if McCarthy is his usual accurate self and avoids turnovers; if Corum and fellow running back Donovan Edwards keep the chains moving and keep Minnesota’s offense on the sideline.
CBS Sports: Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction, pick, spread, football game odds, live stream, watch online, TV channel
Can Minnesota score? While the Gophers will try to establish the run early, they’re going to have to hit on some explosives and get creative if they want to score against Michigan. The Wolverines have the best scoring defense in the NCAA, allowing just six points per game. They’ve held each of their first five opponents under seven points. Minnesota is averaging just 20 points in three games against power conference competition, but even that’s a little bit skewed. The Gophers scored 34 against Northwestern, but posted just 26 combined points against Nebraska and North Carolina.
Pete Fiutak, College Football News: Michigan vs Minnesota Prediction Game Preview
Michigan has taken nine of the last ten Little Brown Jugs in this classic battle that began in 1892, when a powerhouse Minnesota team sent Frank Barbour’s Wolverines home with a 14-6 in the program’s first real college football game – if you don’t want to count the inaugural season’s lid-lifter against a team made up of University of Minnesota alumni.
There’s a brilliance in Michigan’s methodical style. It’s not taking a whole lot of chances, the defense is holding up drive after drive, JJ McCarthy is playing like a Heisman candidate, and … 13.
That’s how many penalties Michigan has been hit with, being flagged just once against Bowling Green.
Michigan didn’t get flagged against Nebraska. The team is sharp, and that’s not stopping in the Bank.
Owen Pustell, Wolverines Wire: Five keys for Michigan football against Minnesota
Limit chunk plays
Another key to beating down the Gophers is keeping their offense grounded. U-M has allowed a couple of chunk plays this year, and while it isn’t quite an issue, they do tend to pile up. If the starters pitch another shutout, it will be tough to count Saturday’s matchup as anything but a resounding success.
Rotating Rod Moore and Mike Sainristil in will help as well. Both are working through minor injuries and still looking to stay on the field despite strong play from their backups. This game isn’t important enough to push them, but letting them ease into things bodes well for games down the line.
