Michigan football's FPI outlook, record projection updated after Week 1
The Michigan Wolverines moved to 1-0 on the year with a 30-10 win over Fresno State on Saturday in a shaky showing that finished strong. But was there a tangible analytic impact on it?
ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing the year with an 8.3-3.9 record this season, falling two spots to the metric’s No. 14 team in the country. It plays the No. 3 team in the FPI on Saturday with the Texas Longhorns coming to town. The Wolverines came into the year as the metric’s No. 12 team nationally.
A few other FPI numbers of note is a 7.3% chance of winning the Big Ten, a 23.4% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 2.6% chance of making the national championship game. Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 9 of its 11 remaining games, according to FPI. The exceptions are Texas (26.2%) this weekend and Ohio State (22.3%) on Nov. 30 to end the regular season.
So what exactly is FPI?
“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”
Top 10
- 1
Underranked SEC
Lane Kiffin protests CFP rankings
- 2New
Saban chirped
Big 12 comes after GOAT
- 3
DJ Lagway
Fan flashes Florida QB to Pope
- 4Hot
Strength of Schedule
CFP Top 25 SOS ranking
- 5
Alabama needs a prayer
Tide can make the CFP but needs help
After this week’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.
Michigan football’s updated FPI outlook and win projections
| Rank | Proj. W-L | Win Out% | 6+ Wins% | Win Conf.% | Playoffs% | Make NC% | Win NC% |
| 14 | 8.3-3.9 | 0.4% | 94.0% | 7.3% | 23.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
Aug. 31 vs. Fresno State (FPI rank: 75th): 30-10 W
Sept. 7 vs. Texas (3rd): 26.2% chance of victory
Sept. 14 vs. Arkansas St. (103rd): 94.3% chance of victory
Sept. 21 vs. USC (15th): 57.9% chance of victory
Sept. 28 vs. Minnesota (61st): 83.5% chance of victory
Oct. 5 at Washington (26th): 52.6% chance of victory
Oct. 19 at Illinois (52nd): 76.3% chance of victory
Oct. 26 vs. Michigan State (79th): 88.4% chance of victory
Nov. 2 vs. Oregon (10th): 55.1% chance of victory
Nov. 9 at Indiana (73rd): 80.3% chance of victory
Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (67th): 86.8% chance of victory
Nov. 30 at Ohio State (4th): 22.3% chance of victory
What’s next for the Wolverines?
Texas comes to Ann Arbor this weekend for a 12 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday afternoon as part of FOX’s Big Noon Saturday coverage. The Longhorns are listed as 5.5-point favorites with the over/under for total points scored at 49.5.
