Michigan football's outlook tumbles in latest FPI update
The Michigan Wolverines head into Michigan State week and the Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy sitting at 4-3 on the season and a 2-2 record in Big Ten play. With a two-game losing streak heading into the final five games of the regular season, some of the advanced metrics have been updated to reflect the six-game stretch.
ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing the year with a 5.9-6.1 record this season, moving down five spots to the metric’s No. 38 team in the country. The Wolverines came into the year as the metric’s No. 12 team nationally.
A few other FPI numbers of note are a 0.1% chance of winning the Big Ten, a 0.1% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 0.0% chance of making the national championship game. Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 2 of its 5 remaining games, according to FPI. The metric suggests a higher likelihood of losses vs. Oregon, at Indiana and at Ohio State.
So what exactly is FPI?
“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”
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After this week’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.
Michigan football’s updated FPI outlook and win projections
| Win Out % | 6 Wins % | Win Conf% | Playoff% | Make NC% | Win NC% |
| 0.1% | 68.4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Aug. 31 vs. Fresno State (FPI rank: 81st): 30-10 W (1-0)
Sept. 7 vs. Texas (2nd): 31-12 L (1-1)
Sept. 14 vs. Arkansas St. (109th): 28-18 W (2-1)
Sept. 21 vs. USC (15th): 27-24 W (3-1, 1-0 B1G)
Sept. 28 vs. Minnesota (45th): 27-24 W (4-1, 2-0 B1G)
Oct. 5 at Washington (39th): 27-17 L (4-2, 2-1 B1G)
Oct. 19 at Illinois (55th): 21-7 L (4-3, 2-2 B1G)
Oct. 26 vs. Michigan State (62nd): 67.1% chance of victory
Nov. 2 vs. Oregon (8th): 22.8% chance of victory
Nov. 9 at Indiana (11th): 17.3% chance of victory
Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (78th): 78.5% chance of victory
Nov. 30 at Ohio State (1st): 6.1% chance of victory
What’s next for the Wolverines?
Michigan hosts Michigan State on Saturday night in Ann Arbor in the third-straight primetime game in the series, set for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Big Ten Network. The Wolverines are currently set as a 5.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 40.5 total points.
