What they're saying, predictions for Michigan's Frozen Four showdown with Boston College

The Michigan Wolverines are back in the Frozen Four for the third-straight year, looking to finally bust through and grab the program’s first national title since the 1998 season. However, it will go up against a juggernaut in Boston College, the No. 1 seed that sits at 33-5-1 on the year.

The hope is that the magical football season and run to a College Football Playoff National Championship can spread to the hockey program. The last time the Wolverines won it all, it came months after the 1997 football team took care of its business in the Rose Bowl.

But it will be tough sailing on Thursday.

Boston College is favored by 1.5 goals on Thursday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) with the over/under set at 7 goals between the two teams. BC is a -175 favorite on the moneyline with Michigan sitting at +135.

Here’s a look at what a sampling of analysts and writers are saying about Thursday night’s game at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota.

Chris Peters, Flo Hockey

Frozen Four Predictions: NCAA Men’s Hockey Tournament Semifinals
What a fun matchup this is if you love skilled hockey. The Frozen Four actually has the four highest-scoring teams in the country playing for the title, which makes for some fun games. This one in particular, however, could have a lot of fireworks. 

BC boasts four of the top six scorers in college hockey including Hobey Baker finalist Cutter Gauthier (ANA), who leads the NCAA with 37 goals. The Eagles also have the top-scoring line in the country with NCAA leading scorer Will Smith (SJS), 30-goal scorer Ryan Leonard (WSH) and one of the tops in points per game in Gabe Perreault (NYR).

Michigan will counter with a group that includes Big Ten player of the year Gavin Brindley (CBJ) and Winnipeg Jets first-rounder Rutger McGroarty, both of whom eclipsed 50 points this season. The Wolverines also have one of the nation’s most dynamic defensemen in Seamus Casey (NJD) who can produce from the back end.

To me, this matchup is going to come down to goaltending. With all due respect to Jake Barczewski, who was excellent in the regionals, Boston College’s Jacob Fowler (MTL) ranks fifth in the NCAA with a .924 save percentage. He also broke the NCAA record for wins by a freshman goalie with 31. He also is only a year removed from leading the Youngstown Phantoms to the Clark Cup in the USHL as a proven winner in the toughest part of the season. Michigan is going to test him, but I believe Fowler will be the difference in this battle of highly-skilled, high-scoring squads.

Tony Ferrari, The Hockey News

NCAA Frozen Four: Breaking Down the Finalists and NHL Prospects in 2024

This matchup should be a wild ride. Boston College has four of the top six scorers in the nation and arguably the best goalie in college hockey in Montreal Canadiens prospect Jacob Fowler. Michigan is loaded with NHL prospects and is hungry to go all the way.

…

After failing to reach the national title game last year, the Wolverines still have so many of the pieces that helped them get to that point. Nazar is fully healthy this season and has looked more dangerous as the season wore on. Brindley is one of the nation’s most exciting players with his blend of work ethic and skill. Rutger McGroarty (WPG) has been a force for the Wolverines all season. Seamus Casey (NJD) and TJ Hughes lead a blueline that has overperformed expectations all season. This Michigan team has a boatload of talent, but injuries and inconsistencies have been its enemy all year – until it matters most.

Boston College will have to eliminate a second team from last year’s Frozen Four if it plans on reaching the national championship game. Michigan will have to continue to defy the odds and take down the nation’s top teams if it wants to reach the natty. This matchup should be a ton of fun with two high-powered offenses going head to head.

Paul Kasabian, Bleacher Report

NCAA Frozen Four Hockey 2024: Schedule, Bracket, Odds, Live Stream, Predictions
Simply put, [Boston College] doesn’t have any weaknesses. BC is currently 33-5-1, outscoring its opponents by 92 goals.

The Wolverines aren’t going to let BC run them over en route to the championship, though. Michigan is on a Cinderella run after taking down North Dakota 5-2 before dispatching its arch rival (and the Big Ten champion) Michigan State, 5-2.

Seven Michigan players have 34 or more points, led by Gavin Brindley (25 goals, 28 assists) and Rutger McGroarty (16 goals, 36 assists). But the player to watch is Dylan Duke, who has scored four goals in the tournament (two apiece against North Dakota and Michigan State). Duke now has 26 goals on the year, and he’s someone BC will assuredly keep an eye on Thursday.

Ultimately, don’t expect a blowout here by any means, but BC is simply the better team and the pick to win, 5-3.

If those predictions hold, BC and BU would face each other in the final for just the second time in history. BU beat BC 5-3 in 1978 the first time around.

Noah Bieniek, Sports Gambling Podcast

Frozen Four Picks – NCAA Men’s Hockey Tournament Bets
The X-factor in this matchup is the Boston College power play. BC has the 2nd best PP% in the country (29.9%) and only trail Michigan’s PP which has a 34.5% success rate. Boston College has the #1 penalty kill in the country, meanwhile the Wolverines discipline is questionable. Michigan has taken the 7th most penalty minutes in the country and their PK ranks just 45th out of 64 D1 teams.

Additionally, Michigan’s defensive unit has been the big hole for them this year. The Wolverines are in the middle of an 8-2 span that took them from being left out of the Big Dance to sneaking in as an at-large bid.

The week and a half of off time most negatively impacts Michigan’s defense, whereas Boston College will be able to pick up their historic season right where they left off. I think BC will put up 5+ goals, while Michigan’s offense also contributes to hitting the over.

Curtis Flannery, BC Interruption

Frozen Four Preview: #1 Boston College Men’s Hockey vs #10 Michigan
This thing could turn into a shootout if Boston College doesn’t play carefully. Michigan’s powerplay is the most effective in the nation, even more effective than BC’s, while Boston College boasts the most effective penalty kill in the nation. Something’s gotta give on Thursday night, and BC has gotten into a bad habit of committing too many penalties this postseason. They really can’t afford those mistakes against a lethal offense like UM, because even Quinnipiac managed to convert 2/4 powerplay opportunities against the Eagles in the regional.

Other than that, this is a great match-up for Boston College. The Eagles have excelled this season when their top two lines are able to play with space in open ice, and the high-flying Michigan offense is sure to give them plenty of space. Their struggles against Quinnipiac and Michigan Tech were largely results of the style of the defense that those two teams played with an aggressive forecheck and a lot of pressure in the neutral zone, something that is not a strength of the Michigan defense. BC will essentially be betting on the success of their top two lines against the Michigan goalie versus the success of the Michigan offense against Jacob Fowler. I would take the BC side of that bet 10 out of 10 times.

Alex Drain, MGoBlog

2024 Frozen Four Preview
This one is an uphill battle for Michigan, a hell of a test for a team that has come a long way over the course of the season. I’m going to keep it brief because you can read the rest of my thoughts in the game preview tomorrow, but Michigan is going to need to be sound defensively, get an exceptional goaltending game from Jacob Barczewski, and let your top-end scorers cook. I expect this to be a high scoring game… with BC’s offensive talent, it’s likely going to take four goals and any victory will probably only be by one. I picked in Michigan’s favor the last two years in the national semifinal so this time I’m going for a reverse jinx and will take BC.