Michigan playoff chances improve after a CFB survival weekend
A shorthanded Michigan team pulled out a come-from-behind, 19-17 win over Illinois on a last-second Jake Moody field goal. The Wolverines would still have controlled their Big Ten championship (and probably playoff) destiny had they lost — they travel to No. 2 Ohio State Saturday in a winner take all Big Ten East Division championship game — but their chances of securing a playoff bid even with a loss in Columbus went up significantly Saturday.
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In short, another bid opened up when South Carolina thrashed Tennessee, 63-38, at home. The Volunteers now have two losses and won’t have a championship, either. Most had them as a third team lock behind Georgia, which will likely win the SEC and will have 1 loss at worst if it beats a bad Georgia Tech team.
The Bulldogs will also play LSU in the SEC championship game — the Tigers have two losses, but might get some consideration with a win, but they still play at underachieving Texas A&M Saturday.
So … it’s Georgia, the Michigan – Ohio State winner, and then who?
There are only a few left in contention now. North Carolina, another one-loss team, fell to Georgia Tech. They were a long shot, but that still helps the Wolverines. They’ll still have a chance to help Michigan with a win over Clemson in the ACC title game. There will be some who pine for a one-loss ACC champion Clemson team, even one that got crushed 35-14 by an average Notre Dame team, if it comes to that.
But … the Tigers still need to beat South Carolina at home, too. As we saw last night, the Gamecocks are dangerous.
TCU controls its destiny, as well, after coming back and pulling out a squeaker at Baylor. The Horned Frogs are undefeated and might move past Michigan in the CFP standings Tuesday. They play Iowa State at home and then Kansas State, most likely, if the Wildcats beat Kansas Saturday. They beat KSU once already this year, 38-28 at home.
If they’re undefeated, they’re in. If they aren’t, it’s hard to imagine them getting in over U-M. The loss would likely be to Kansas State, and that would prevent a championship.
Finally, USC is the other one to watch. The defense-optional Trojans held on for a 48-45 win over rival UCLA thanks to a late interception. They still host improving Notre Dame, however, before playing in the Pac-12 title game — Oregon looks like the most likely opponent — and there’s a decent shot at a loss there, too.
In short — if you’re a Michigan fan, you root against USC, Clemson, and TCU the next couple weeks. There are essentially four teams vying for two spots, and if even two of those teams lose once, the Wolverines could be in solid shape.
The easiest course of action, of course, would be to beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten title game and capture the bid that way. That’s their plan … but it won’t come easy. The Buckeyes are a touchdown favorite to beat U-M and capture the East.
