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Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy a first-round pick in Mel Kiper Jr.'s latest mock draft

clayton-sayfieby:Clayton Sayfie•01/23/24•

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J.J. McCarthy
(Photo by Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Michigan Wolverines football junior quarterback J.J. McCarthy is the No. 5 quarterback and outside the top-25 overall prospects on Mel Kiper Jr.’s NFL Draft big board, but the ESPN analyst projected him as a first-round pick in his latest mock draft. No other Michigan player was listed in the one-round mock.

Kiper placed McCarthy at No. 16 overall to the Seattle Seahawks, the fourth quarterback off the board behind USC’s Caleb Williams (No. 1 to the Chicago Bears), LSU’s Jayden Daniels (No. 2 to the Washington Commanders) and North Carolina’s Drake Maye (No. 3 to the New England Patriots).

“OK, here’s a spot for the next quarterback,” Kiper wrote. “While I don’t have a first-round grade on McCarthy right now — a lot can change before Round 1 on April 25 — he does have first-round arm talent, along with the ability to beat defenses with his legs.

“He’s the type of quarterback teams will take a shot at in the middle of the first round, especially when you consider he just turned 21 a few days ago. He rarely turns the ball over — he threw 44 touchdown passes and had nine picks over the past two seasons — and can make every throw.

“McCarthy just wasn’t asked to beat teams with his arm for the Wolverines, because they so often dominated at the line of scrimmage. As of now, I’m betting on a team seeing his upside and trying to take him somewhere in the teens.”

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Seattle currently has starter Geno Smith under contract, but Kiper said he wonders if the former West Virginia star is long for the Seahawks’ organization. It’s worth noting that the club also is searching for a new head coach, after Pete Carroll moved into a front office role.

“I could see the Seahawks severing ties and starting fresh for whomever the new coach ends up being,” Kiper wrote.

Earlier in his mock draft, Kiper also alluded to the Atlanta Falcons — which possess the No. 8 overall pick — as a potential landing spot for the Michigan quarterback. Head coach Jim Harbaugh has interviewed with the Falcons once and is slated to do so again soon, sparking Kiper’s comment.

“If the Falcons hire Jim Harbaugh, I reserve my right to predict Michigan signal-caller J.J. McCarthy to join his former coach,” Kiper wrote after projecting Alabama outside linebacker Dallas Turner to Atlanta.

McCarthy was 27-1 as a starter at Michigan, with that .964 win percentage standing as the best among college football quarterbacks since 1971. McCarthy is 65-3 since becoming a starting varsity high school player. He turned 21 years old Jan. 20.

The 6-foot-3, 202-pounder was named first-team All-Big Ten and became Michigan’s first-ever winner of the Griese-Brees Big Ten Quarterback of the Year award this season. He completed 240 of his 332 passes (72.2 percent) for 2,991 yards and 22 touchdowns with 4 interceptions. He added 64 rushes for 202 yards and 3 scores.

McCarthy led the Maize and Blue to the Big Ten championship and College Football Playoff victories over Alabama (27-20 in overtime in the Rose Bowl) and Washington (34-13 in the title game in Houston). They also beat Ohio State, 30-24, their third-straight triumph over the hated rival that McCarthy revered as a youth.

On his big board, Kiper has Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. as the fourth-best signal-caller and No. 17 overall prospect in the draft. He does have Williams No. 1 in both categories but believes Maye is better than Daniels.

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