Michigan travels to Happy Valley to take on Penn St in a must win game

Michigan comes in 11-9 overall, 5-5 in conference play. The Wolverines look to regather themselves after a tough loss at #4 ranked Purdue on Saturday. Michigan kept the game close for the most part but a 2nd half 10-0 Purdue run ended up being too much to overcome. The loss bumps Michigan back to 8th in the conference standings and the big question is if Michigan can get back in the NCAA tournament conversation. Looking at the schedule and what teams are doing around the country, the simple answer is yes. Michigan has ten games left, they have to go 6-4 at minimum. There are two “absolutely can not lose” games during that stretch. They have to win the next game against Penn St, and then must win at home against Rutgers later this month. Find a way to get four more wins among the other eight Quad 1 opportunities. This puts them at 17-13 going into the Big Ten Tournament with five Quad 1 wins, then they must win two games in the Big Ten Tournament to finish 19-14.

Penn St comes in 9-10 overall, 4-7 in conference play. They rank 90th on the NET, making this a Quad 2 game. Despite their record, the Nittany Lions are still a formidable team. When playing at home, they have shown the capability to beat anyone. They have beaten Indiana and recently beat Iowa in their last home game. Penn St is coming off of a tough road loss at 11th ranked Wisconsin where they had possession down by two points with a chance to win or force overtime. They remind me a bit of Minnesota. A fearless team with big guards, and multiple players who can take over games in tight situations.

Michigan vs Penn St Stat Overview

Team Defensive Efficiency: Penn St ranks 190th in defensive efficiency, allowing 0.998 points per possession (PPP).

Pace: Penn St is one of the slower teams in the country, averaging 65.9 possessions per game which ranks 338th out of 358 teams nationally.

Short Clock Offense: Michigan has to play defense for a full 30 seconds. Penn St ranks 16th in the country in efficiency when the shot clock is four seconds or less. Around 11-12% of their possessions end in late clock situations.

Cutting: Off ball defense has to be disciplined in this game. Penn St scores 1.318 PPP on cutting plays which ranks 36th in the country.

Penn St vs Zone: When going against zone defense, Penn St scores on 0.768 PPP which ranks 330th in the country.

Penn St Main Personnel

#1 Seth Lundy: Lundy is a 6’6″ 210 pound wing out of New Jersey. He is the leading scorer, putting up 13 points and 5.8 rebounds on 40.1% shooting from the floor and 34.5% from 3pt range. Almost 39% of his offensive possessions come from spot up situations and he is averaging 1.029 PPP which ranks in the 73rd percentile. He is not very efficient but he relies heavily on his size to get space for his jump shot. Lundy has struggled a bit in his last few games but in his last home game, he had 17 points and 11 rebounds in an upset win over Iowa.

#22 Jalen Pickett: Pickett is a 6’4″ 200 pound Siena transfer guard from New York. He averages 12.8 points, 4.2 assists, and 4.1 rebounds. Penn St ranks 254th in assists per game, but Pickett is the creator on the team. Picket does a great job when he gets to his left, or when he is able to pull up from the mid range. He is the 7th most efficient player in the country when he drives to his left, and 79th in the country when shooting from 17-20 feet.

Penn St Supporting Personnel

#3 Sam Sessoms: Sessoms is a 6’0″ 190 pound guard out of Pennsylvania. He averages 11.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and three assists per game while shooting almost 48% from the floor, and almost 45% from the 3pt line. For someone to have decent efficiency from the floor, his games aren’t that consistent from one game to the next. Sessoms is an aggressive player, when he feels he has an advantage in a mismatch. In top of the key isolations, Sessoms is ranked 29th in the country. Sessoms had a pretty good game against Wisconsin, scoring 14 points on 55.6% shooting from the floor.

#21 John Harrar: Harrar is a 6’9″ 240 pound big man out of Pennsylvania. He averages 10.3 points and 9.5 rebounds per game on 65.8% shooting from the floor. Harrar’s 9.5 rebounds per game ranks 20th in the country, 2nd among Big Ten players. In their last home game, Harrar scored 19 points on 60% shooting and pulled in ten rebounds. When John Harrar is defending a spot up shooter, he struggles quite a bit. Harrar allows 1.512 PPP on spot up jump shots which is ranked in the 1st percentile, one of the worst defensive metrics in the NCAA.