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Michigan vs. Michigan State Vegas odds, Big Ten picks for Week 9

Anthony Broomeby:Anthony Broome•10/25/24•

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J.J. McCarthy Paul Bunyan Trophy
(Photo by Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)

The Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans renew their in-state rivalry on Saturday night in a game that has had a lot of Vegas action since last Saturday

Heading into last week, U-M was a 9.5-point favorite, but the line went all the way down to 2.5 in favor of the home team. The market evened itself out, and the Wolverines are back up to 4.5 points as of this posting.

In this piece overall, we got a game back last week by going 4-3 in the Big Ten slate. We’ll try to stack another good one as we close out the month of October.

Here’s where things stand after eight weeks (and seven weeks worth of picks):

Week 8 record: 4-3
Season Overall: 35-39

Let’s get right into this week’s slate of games.

The Michigan vs. Michigan State pick

Michigan State at Michigan (-4.5, o/u 39.5), 7:30 p.m., Big Ten Network

Conventional wisdom states that this one should be a low-scoring slugfest of teams that aren’t quite ready for primetime despite the game designation. This is a rivalry game, which means records and wisdom should be thrown out the window, and we suspect that each staff will have some tricks lined up. MSU’s arrow is pointing up offensively, while Michigan is in the mud spinning its wheels. It’s hard to give U-M the benefit of the doubt here.

Side note: I’m tired of this being a night game. I’m sure both programs agree.

Pick: Michigan State +4.5

The rest of the Big Ten

Rutgers at USC (-14, o/u 56.5), Friday at 11 p.m., FOX

As of this posting, Kyle Monongai is listed as questionable for Rutgers heading out west in what is a travesty of a kick time, regardless of new conference membership for USC. The wheels have fallen off for Rutgers lately, while the Trojans are in a similar boat. Hard to put a finger on this one, so we default to the home team.

Pick: USC -14

Nebraska at No. 4 Ohio State (-25, o/u 47.5), noon, FOX

Call it homerism or whatever you will, but I’m still not buying into this Ohio State team having a killer instinct. Nebraska has its issues, but they find a way to cover the big number in this game and incite some more doubt in Columbus.

Pick: Nebraska +25

Washington at No. 13 Indiana (-5.5, o/u 53.5), noon, Big Ten Network

Oh look, another kick-time travesty! It’s a theme this week. Washington playing a 9 a.m. kick, according to their body clocks, is awful. However, I have faith that the Fighting Fischs can keep this close, and perhaps throw a wrench in Indiana’s CFP plans while the Hoosiers deal with an injury to QB Kurtis Rourke.

Pick: Washington +5.5

No. 20 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon (-22.5, o/u 54.5), 3:30 p.m., CBS

On the surface, 22.5 points feel like a lot for a ranked matchup, but Illinois wasn’t all that impressive against Michigan, and Oregon sleepwalked through a win at Purdue last week. This one could be a physical game, though, and it would not be surprising to see this turn into one of those competitive Big Ten bar fights.

Pick: Under 54.5

Northwestern at Iowa (-14.5, o/u 37.5), 3:30 p.m., Big Ten Network

It’s an Iowa game, so the under is always in play. If I were a betting man, I might even take a lower alternate point total for this game. Gross.

Pick: Under 37.5

Maryland at Minnesota (-5.5, o/u 46.5), 3:30 p.m., Fox Sports 1

Minnesota is 5-1 against the spread in their last six contests, and that’s a trend we are going to stick with because it’s the only interesting thing I could find when researching this game

Pick: Minnesota -5.5

No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin (+6.5, o/u 47.5). 7:30 p.m., NBC

Call it a gut feeling, but I think that Penn State has a chance to get close to hitting the total on its own in this game. We’ll see if the Dairy Raid can hang and help the cause.

Pick: Over 47.5

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