What Kenpom's preseason ratings say about Michigan basketball: Projected record, more
Ken Pomeroy‘s Kenpom.com released its preseason ratings for the 2022-23 season, projecting teams’ efficiency and the results of each game. Given that Kenpom’s efficiency ratings are purely predictive, they’ll get more and more accurate once the season starts and wears on, but we’ll examine what the analytics site says about Michigan Wolverines basketball.
Michigan is pegged at the No. 26 team in the country with a +19.18 efficiency margin. The Wolverines are projected to have the 15th-most efficient offense (111.1 points scored per possession) and the 53rd-most efficient defense (91.9 points allowed per play). Kenpom expects Michigan to play at the 219th-fastest pace in the country (out of 363 teams).
Michigan’s offense is once again expected to be prolific, thanks in large part to junior center Hunter Dickinson, who’s led the Maize and Blue in scoring and rebounding each of the last two seasons. They slotted 21st in offense last year, ninth in 2020-21 and 20th in head coach Juwan Howard‘s first season (2019-20).
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The Wolverines’ defensive numbers have been all over the map the last few years. They were 28th nationally in 2019-20, fourth in 2020-21 and 74th in 2021-22. Despite losing their best defender in guard Eli Brooks, Kenpom has Michigan improving on the defensive end of the floor.
Michigan slots fourth in the Big Ten per Kenpom, behind Indiana (12th nationally), Iowa (23rd) and Purdue (25th). Due to an extremely efficient offense, Iowa typically ranks higher on the projection sites than they do in polls (the Hawkeyes were picked seventh in the Big Ten preseason media poll). Michigan State (31st), Ohio State (32nd) and Illinois (33rd) are close behind the Wolverines.
Kenpom projects Michigan to go 12-8 in the league, creating a tie with Iowa and Purdue. Indiana is expected to post a 13-7 Big Ten record.
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Here’s a look at where Big Ten teams stand in Kenpom’s preseason ratings:
| National Rank | Team | Projected Big Ten Record |
| 12th | Indiana | 13-7 |
| 23rd | Iowa | 12-8 |
| 25th | Purdue | 12-8 |
| 26th | Michigan | 12-8 |
| 31st | Michigan State | 11-9 |
| 32nd | Ohio State | 11-9 |
| 33rd | Illinois | 11-9 |
| 46th | Penn State | 10-10 |
| 50th | Rutgers | 10-10 |
| 55th | Wisconsin | 10-10 |
| 56th | Maryland | 10-10 |
| 70th | Northwestern | 8-12 |
| 108th | Nebraska | 5-15 |
| 109th | Minnesota | 6-14 |
Michigan is predicted to hold a 19-11 overall record, with its non-conference slate standing as extremely challenging. It’s actually favored to win 21 of its games, per Kenpom, but with some of them set to be toss-ups, the projected win total is at 19.
The site expects Michigan to notch victories over Purdue Fort Wayne (155th overall), Eastern Michigan (311th), Pittsburgh (84th), Ohio (205th), Jackson State (319th) and Central Michigan (303rd). The Wolverines will also play one of Arizona State (75th overall) or VCU (94th) in Brooklyn, so it’s safe to assume that would be a projected win.
Kenpom is anticipating losses to Virginia (5th overall), Kentucky (1st) and North Carolina (9th) in the non-conference portion of the schedule.
The rest of Michigan’s Kenpom page is empty, awaiting results from the season. The Wolverines tip off the campaign Nov. 7 against Purdue Fort Wayne, following a Nov. 4 exhibition matchup with Ferris State.
