Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Northwestern

Michigan Wolverines basketball is looking to go on a three-game win streak for the first time this season, and would do so with a victory over Northwestern Wednesday evening.

The Maize and Blue are fresh off wins over Maryland and Indiana, while the Wildcats have lost two straight — versus Wisconsin and at Purdue — but have shown they can pick up tough road wins after winning at Michigan State Jan. 15.

Here is everything you need to know before tip-off, including breakdowns of key players, analysis on the matchup, our final score prediction and more.

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Game Information: Michigan vs. Northwestern

Date: Wednesday, Jan. 26, 2022

Time: 6:31 p.m. ET

Venue: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)

Channel: Big Ten Network

On The Call: Brandon Gaudin (play-by-play) and Robbie Hummel (color)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Michigan -8, over/under 140.5

Kenpom Prediction: Michigan 74, Northwestern 67

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (12-4 ATS): Michigan 75, Northwestern 70

Michigan Projected Starters

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 8.4 points, 3.9 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game, while shooting 45.8 percent from the field and 45.2 percent from long range.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain generates 11.5 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists per outing, while shooting 41.8 percent overall and 36.2 percent from three.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 10.3 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.4 assists per clash, while shooting 39.9 percent from the field and 35.4 percent from long range … Is 8-of-11 from deep over his last two games and shooting 41.2 percent from beyond the arc during league play.

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — Averaging 9.1 points and 6.1 rebounds per tilt … Made 53-of-93 shot attempts (57 percent) and is 28-of-45 from the free throw line.

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The 2021 second-team All-American is leading the team with 17 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, with 35 assists … Shooting 61.1 percent from the field and has made nine of his 23 three-point attempts.

Michigan Key Bench Contributors

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — Notching 5.2 points and 2.2 boards per outing, while shooting 44.4 percent from the field and 6-of-18 from three-point range.

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 16.3 minutes per contest at the ‘3’ and ‘4’ positions, while averaging 5.3 points and 2.9 rebounds, and shooting 44.4 percent from the field and 39.3 percent from long range.

• #10 – Freshman guard Frankie Collins (6-1, 185) — Seen action in 13 games, averaging 12.7 minutes per appearance … Averaging 3.5 points, 2.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists per contest, while shooting 45 percent from the field and 2-of-8 from three.

Northwestern Projected Starters

• #0 Junior guard Boo Buie (6-2, 180) — Second on the team with 15 points per game, while adding 5.5 assists and 2.7 rebounds per contest … Shoots 38.9 percent overall and 35.2 percent from long range … Runs 53.1 percent of Northwestern’s ball screens and produces 0.868 points per play (56th percentile nationally).

• #3 – Sophomore guard Ty Berry (6-3, 185) — Averaging 7.7 points and 2.2 rebounds per contest, while shooting 40.7 overall and 41.3 percent from three-point range (31-of-75) … Mostly used as a spot-up man.

• #1 – Redshirt junior guard Chase Audige (6-4, 200) — The William & Mary transfer posts 11.9 points and 4.5 boards per outing, and hits 38.2 percent of his looks from the floor … Shoots 26.1 percent from beyond the arc … Used as a pick-and-roll ball handler from the top of the key or the left wing, and generates 0.98 points per possession in such situations.

• #31 – Junior forward Robbie Beran (6-9, 215) — The former top-100 recruit puts up 6.5 points and 4.5 rebounds per tilt, while shooting 46.2 percent overall and 32.6 percent from three-point range … Struggles to guard on the perimeter but is solid down low and has the ninth-best block rate in the Big Ten during league play (4.5).

• Senior forward Pete Nance (6-10, 225) — Leads the team in scoring with 16.1 points and rebounding with 7.3 boards … Shoots 51.8 percent from the field and 44 percent from long range (22-of-50) … Dangerous on the pick-and-pop, with 1.259 points per possession in those situations … Also strong when rolling or slipping to the basket.

Key Bench Contributors

• #15 – Junior forward Ryan Young (6-10, 240) — Averages 18 minutes per game but has played at least 21 minutes in each of the last three … Plays the five in bigger lineups, and can be paired with Nance in the front court … Registers 9.9 points and 4.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 57.3 percent from three … His offensive game relies on post-ups, cuts and put-backs.

• #2 – Senior guard Ryan Greer (6-2, 190) — Puts up 4.2 points and 2.1 rebounds per game, while hitting 41.5 percent of his overall looks and 36.8 percent of his triple tries … Plays the ‘1’ and the ‘2’ off the bench.

• #5 – Freshman guard Julian Roper II (6-3, 180) — The Detroit native notches 3.8 points and 3.4 rebounds while playing the ‘2’ and ‘3’ positions … Shoots 34.5 percent from the field and 35 percent from beyond the arc.

Matchup Breakdown

• Chris Collins-coached Northwestern teams usually take care of the ball, but this Wildcats’ club is his best in that regard, ranking fourth nationally with a 13 percent turnover rate. They grab just 28.1 percent of their missed shots, but they value their possessions and don’t allow many transition opportunities defensively.

• The Wildcats don’t get out and run much themselves — just 13.7 percent of the time, the 257th-most in the country — but are efficient when doing so, with 1.119 points per play (49th).

The efficiency on offense ends there, however. Northwestern shoots 34.9 percent on threes (112th nationally) and 48.4 percent from two-point range (227th). The Wildcats generate 0.911 points per play in the half court and are at their best when using spot-up shooters.

• As mentioned above, Nance is a dangerous pick-and-pop man, and guarding that aspect of his game may be a challenge for Michigan center Hunter Dickinson. Former U-M wing Franz Wagner actually drew the Nance assignment last season and fared well with his athleticism. Freshman forward Moussa Diabate — a much more athletic option — may be better suited to guard Nance, while Dickinson could check forward Ryan Young, when he’s on the floor (that’s Dickinson’s best matchup), or forward Robbie Beran, who can hit shots on the perimeter but doesn’t often put the ball on the deck. The front court matchups will be one of the top things we’ll be watching right out of the gate.

• Northwestern ranks 96th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Wildcats are solid inside the arc, allowing opponents to shoot 45.9 percent on twos (48th nationally) but are susceptible to giving up great looks from deep — with the opposition shooting 42.4 percent of their shots from beyond the three-point line and draining 35.5 percent of them.

While Northwestern has strong numbers against two-pointers, the Wildcats struggle guarding the post, yielding 0.925 points per play (inclding passes). They’re better against ball screens (0.8 PPP) and have a tough time when facing isolations (0.848 PPP).

• The Wildcats play man-to-man 94.4 percent of the time and have zoned up on 5.6 percent of its possessions. They bring full-court pressure just 1.9 percent of the time.