Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball at UCF

Michigan Wolverines basketball is set to take on Central Florida Thursday night in Orlando.

The Maize and Blue are 7-4 and had its last game against Purdue Fort Wayne canceled due to COVID-19 concerns within the opponent’s program, meaning they haven’t played in 12 days. They’ve been in Orlando since Monday morning after some time off for Christmas.

The Knights are 8-2 with its only losses coming to Oklahoma and Auburn, and are on a four-game winning streak.

Here is everything you need to know before the game, including a breakdown of key players, analysis on the matchup, our final score prediction and more.

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Game Information: Michigan Basketball vs. UCF

Date: Thursday, Dec. 30, 2021

Time: 7:01 p.m. ET

Venue: Addition Financial Arena (Orlando, Fla.)

Channel: ESPN2

On The Call: Rich Hollenberg (play-by-play) and Jon Crispin (color)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Michigan -3.5, over/under 137.5

Kenpom Prediction: Michigan 69, UCF 67 (58-percent chance of victory)

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (8-3 ATS): Michigan 70, UCF 65

Michigan Projected Starters

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 7.4 points, 4.1 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game, while shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from long range.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain is generating 12.6 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.6 assists per outing, while shooting 42.9 percent overall and 35.8 percent from three.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 10.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists per clash, while shooting 40.0 percent from the field and 36.5 percent from long range.

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — Averaging 7.6 points and 5.8 rebounds per tilt … Made 31-of-51 shot attempts (60.8 percent) and is 13-of-26 from the free throw line.

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The 2021 second-team All-American is leading the team with 15.6 points and 9.1 rebounds, with 22 assists … Shooting 60.3 percent from the field and has made five of his 15 three-point attempts … Registered double-doubles in each of his last four outings.

Key Bench Contributors

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — Notching 5.6 points and 2.5 boards per outing, while shooting 44.0 percent from the field and 5-of-17 from three-point range.

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 15.7 minutes per contest at the ‘3’ and ‘4’ positions, while averaging 6.0 points and 3.4 rebounds and shooting 42.3 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from long range.

• #10 – Freshman guard Frankie Collins (6-1, 185) — Seen action in nine games, averaging 13.2 minutes per appearance … Averaging 3.7 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists per contest, while shooting 42.9 percent from the field and 2-of-6 from three.

UCF Projected Starters

• #2 – Fifth-year senior guard Darius Perry (6-2, 185) — The Louisville transfer averages 11.7 points, 5.2 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game, while shooting 48.8 percent from the field and 46.3 percent from long range (76th nationally).

• #22 – Darin Green Jr. (6-4, 185) — Registers a team-high 14.8 points per game, while adding 2.3 rebounds per contest and shooting 48.8 percent overall and 46.3 percent from three-point range.

• #13 – Fifth-year senior guard Brandon Mahan (6-5, 205) — The Texas A&M transfer posts 8.8 points and 3.4 rebounds per outing, while connecting on just 30.1 percent of his attempts from the field and 24.1 percent from long range.

• #21 – Junior forward C.J. Walker (6-8, 205) — The Oregon transfer generates 9.6 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, while hitting 59.7 percent of his overall looks (he’s 3-of-6 from downtown) … His

• Fifth-year senior forward Chiekh Mbacke Diong (6-11, 235) — The UNLV transfer averages 5.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per contest … Shoots 57.9 percent from the field and has not attempted a three-pointer … His 10.6 block percentage ranks 29th nationally.

Key Bench Contributors

• #0 – Freshman guard Darius Johnson (6-1, 190) — The former four-star recruit posts 2.0 points and 2.1 boards per contest, while playing 17.3 minutes … Shoots 25.0 percent from the field and is 0-for-12 from long range.

• #3 – Sophomore forward Isaiah Adams (6-6, 210) — The backup wings sees 16.6 minutes of action per game … Averages 5.7 points and 3.0 rebounds per night … Shoots 40.0 percent from the field and is 3-of-17 from deep.

• #11 – Redshirt sophomore forward Tyem Freeman (6-6, 210) — Posts 8.1 points and 3.0 rebounds per game, while hitting 69.6 percent of his shots from the field (he’s 3-for-10 from long range).

Matchup Breakdown

• Head coach Johnny Dawkins has fielded solid defensive teams ever since taking over at UCF in 2016-17, with his squads finishing top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency each of his five full seasons, including two campaigns inside the top 20.

• This team ranks 68th in defense on Kenpom, and has given up over 70 points or more just twice this season while running man-to-man on 94.2 percent of possessions and zone on the other 5.8 percent. The Knights run a full-court press on 29.1 percent of their possessions and bring traps with it (and at other times in the half court). They force turnovers on 23.1 percent of defensive possessions, a mark that slots 30th in the country, with the aggressiveness paying off.

The Knights allow a 47.3 effective field goal percentage, which ranks 93rd in the country, and are especially good at guarding three-pointers (27.8 percent, 26th nationally). Opponents have shot 46.4 percent of their field goal attempts from three-point range (the national average is 38.3) but aren’t doing so with much success.

On the other hand, UCF is yielding a 52-percent clip from inside the arc, which checks in 262nd in the sport. Post-ups have meant trouble for the Knights, who’ve given up 1.227 points per play in that department, and 1.32 PPP in non-post up shots attempted from around the basket. While Chiekh Mbacke Diong is a shot blocker, UCF doesn’t protect the rim all that well.

• So far, this is one of Dawkins’ better offensive teams, ranking 55th nationally in adjusted efficiency. The Knights play quickly, averaging just 16.0 seconds per possession, and are relatively efficient, with a 53.0 effective field goal percentage, though they do turn it over on 20.8 percent of their trips. They connect on 54.8 percent of their twos (45th nationally) and 33.6 percent of their threes (159th).

UCF likes to run, with 20.8 percent of its possessions being transition opportunities, but is actually better in the half court, scoring 0.945 points per play in the latter. With that said, the Knights don’t do anything fancy on offense, but they do excel at finishing off of spot-up shots plays and cuts. The ball screen is also a strength, with an average of 0.972 PPP, even though they only run it on 23.1 percent of possessions.

• UCF has fared well this season and is a formidable opponent, but the Knights have only beaten one top-100 team on Kenpom — No. 99 Miami. They’ve lost their other two games against such squads — 65-62 to No. 36 Oklahoma and 85-68 to No. 12 Auburn. While the challenge is there, it’s also a game Michigan should win — even with it being on the road — and it’s a great opportunity to pick up a quality win before Big Ten play starts back up.