Starting to make threes could turn Michigan's fortunes around in a hurry: 'They're gonna drop'

Michigan Wolverines basketball has lost three straight and four of its last six games, limping into the postseason but realizing it has new life ahead of the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis this week.

Head coach Dusty May insisted before the year that the Maize and Blue would be at their best from January on, considering all the new pieces that needed time to mesh together, but they now find themselves looking to take on the form they showed earlier in the season.

The competition increased, and Michigan dealt with injuries and illness while playing its final six games in a 17-day span. Those are definite factors. But the Wolverines also don’t feel they’ve played their best, trying to find answers in hopes of making noise in the postseason.

It’s hard to pinpoint exactly where things went wrong, but the three-point shooting woes are one of the first things to point to.

Michigan made 38.4 percent of its three-point attempts in its first 17 games, ranking 20th in the country, but are making only 27.2 percent of them in the 14 contests since then (358th nationally).

The Maize and Blue won nine-consecutive close games, decided by four points or fewer, after having bigger margins, due in part to success from beyond the three-point line, earlier in the season. Then, once the competition did get tougher and other factors came into play (bad matchups, rebounding and turnover problems, etc.), Michigan started dropping games on a regular basis.

May has been adamant — and frustrated — that Michigan doesn’t have the margin to both miss open shots and not be great at rebounding or taking care of the ball. One of those things is going to have to chance, and the one that can the easiest is flipping the three-point fortunes.

“We have guys that are gonna make shots, without a doubt in my mind,” May said. ” I’m obviously a very optimistic person that believes in our guys, but I thought [against MSU] there were probably 8 or 10 shots that, from my angle and my view, I thought they were going in, and they rimmed in or out, they hit the back of the rim.”

Michigan shot 3-of-24 from three-point distance in a 17-point loss against the Spartans.

The Wolverines have played from behind most of the time lately. Michigan has led for an average of nine minutes and 28 seconds over its last six games, never holding a double-digit advantage but trailing by more than 10 points in all but one of the contests.

“And then I started just thinking about it on a deeper level,” May continued. “Are our starts causing us to play just a little bit tighter because we’re playing from behind, or is it just that point in the season when your shot just aren’t dropping, where your legs are a little bit tired, whatever the case? There are a million reasons why those things happen.

“But the last two days in practice leading up to Michigan State, we shot the ball like we did earlier in the season, and I felt like other than 1 or 2 of our threes, we generated really good looks against Michigan State. You gotta believe that if you keep doing that, then they’re gonna drop, especially with a little bit of a break here now, and hopefully some renewed confidence going into the new season.”

The No. 3-seeded Michigan Wolverines have a double-bye and won’t play until Friday night against one of Purdue, Rutgers or USC.

In college basketball, progress isn’t always linear, nor does the outcome of a game tell the full story of how good a team is.

“I think we’re a victim of what the scoreboard said at the end of games,” May said when asked if Michigan is a victim of its earlier success, before being asked to elaborate.

“We went 3-of-24 from three [against MSU],” May pointed out. “If we go 9-of-24 from three yesterday, we win the game, and are we a better basketball team because those shots went in? Yeah.

“Are we better than we were? Absolutely, we’re much, much better. Has the competition and the quality of opponent much greater? Without a doubt.”

The Wolverines will face great competition in the postseason — especially the NCAA Tournament — but will look for a long-range breakout to keep their season alive.

“When you look throughout history, the VCU team had a stat one year where they maybe made double-digit threes one time all year, and then they made double-digit threes four out of five games,” May said. “So, you can catch fire and go on a run. And even Michigan State, the last five games, when you look at the last five games compared to the percentages the previous 25 games or whatever it is, there’s a big discrepancy.”