Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Maryland

Michigan Wolverines basketball is looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 63-61 loss to Central Michigan as it hosts Maryland for U-M’s second Big Ten game of the season.

Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off, including our final score prediction.

RELATED

• Wolverine TV: Juwan Howard and Jace Howard react to loss to Central Michigan

• Central Michigan stuns Michigan basketball: Recap, box score

Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Maryland

Date	Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023
Venue	Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
Time	4:37 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	FS1 and Fox Sports App
On The Call	Brandon Gaudin (play-by-play) and Donny Marshall (analyst)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WTKA (1050 AM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -1, over/under 144
Kenpom Prediction	Maryland 72, Michigan 71

Michigan projected starters

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Tallying 6 points, 3 assists and 2.6 boards per game … Shoots 37.5 percent overall — 38.5 percent on twos and 35 percent on threes (7-of-20) … Generates 0.882 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which ranks in the 56th percentile nationally.

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Averaging 12.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game … Shooting 47 percent from the field, including 14-of-43 from three (32.6 percent) … Puts up 0.859 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which slots in the 51st percentile in the country.

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — The head coach’s youngest son is posting 15.3 points, 2.4 assists and 2.4 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 32 made triples on 83 tries (38.6 percent) … Has a 56.3 effective field goal percentage on jump shots.

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Recording 7.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per clash while connecting on 34.9 percent of his overall shots and 28.2 percent of his three-pointers (11-of-39) … Is used as a spot-up shooter and offensive rebounder on the offensive end.

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 76th percentile nationally with 1.03 points per post-up possession … Averaging 17.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per game while shooting 54.6 percent from the field and 5-of-13 from three-point range.

Key bench contributors

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer is averaging 4.3 points and 2 rebounds per game while shooting 13-of-28 from long range (46.4 percent) … He’s 3-of-11 on two-point attempts.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 2.9 points and 3.3 rebounds in 9.8 minutes per night … Connects on 53.6 percent of his field goals (all two-pointers) and is just 5-of-21 from the free throw line (23.8 percent).

Maryland projected starters

• #1 – Graduate guard Jahmir Young (6-1, 185) — The Charlotte transfer is averaging 14.7 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game, while connecting on 42.9 percent of his shot attempts and 28 percent from deep … Generating 0.964 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which ranks in the 73rd percentile nationally … Also very good in transition (1.289 points per play).

• #23 – Junior guard Ian Martinez (6-3, 185) — Started the last two games after coming off the bench the previous 11 … Averaging 7 points and 2.8 rebounds per outing, while shooting 48.5 percent from the field, including 36 percent from three-point range (9-of-25) … Used primarily as a spot-up shooter, with 58.8 percent of his shots coming on catch-and-shoot jumpers.

• #13 – Senior guard Hakim Hart (6-8, 205) — Recording 12.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game … Shooting 55.8 percent from the field, including 38.3 percent from beyond the arc (18-of-47) … Spot-up shooter and slasher from the wing position, and occasionally runs balls screens … Known as a good wing defender, too, especially on ball-screen situations.

• #24 – Senior forward Donta Scott (6-8, 230) — Averaging 13.2 points 6.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game … Shooting 43.4 percent from the field — 52.2 percent on twos and 30.6 percent on threes (19-of-62) … A do-it-all four man, Scott spot ups, posts up and can isolate … Plays the five as a backup to Julian Reese, as well.

• #10 – Sophomore forward Julian Reese (6-9, 230) — Registering 10.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per clash, while connecting on 71.4 percent of his field goal attempts (all two-pointers) … Posts up (0.946 points per play) and scores on put-backs (35 of his 130 points have come on those).

Key bench contributors

• #0 – Senior guard Don Carey (6-5, 187) — The Mount St. Mary’s (2017-19), Siena (2019-20) and Georgetown (2020-22) transfer started the first 11 games but has come off the bench the last two … Averaging 25.2 minutes per night … Puts up 7.9 points and 2.8 rebounds per clash, and shoots just 33.7 percent from the field (29 percent from three — 20-of-69).

• #15 – Graduate forward Patrick Emilien (6-7, 210) — The Western Michigan (2018-21) and St. Francis (2021-22) transfer averages 2.7 points and 3.3 rebounds per game, while connecting on 45.5 percent of his shots, with all of two coming from inside the arc … Is the backup at the ‘3’ and ‘4’ positions.

Scouting Maryland

Maryland is off to a good start under first-year head coach Kevin Willard, who was previously at Seton Hall. The Terrapins have improved mightily from last season on both ends of the floor, where they struggled in what was a tumultuous 2021-22 campaign.

Maryland shoots a prolific 57.4 percent from inside the arc, but actually attempts 41.3 percent of their shots from three-point range, where the Terrapins are only connecting on 31.7 percent of their looks. At least four, sometimes five, players can trigger from deep.

The Terrapins run ball screens on 26.4 percent of their possession and score 18.2 points per contest in those opportunities. Michigan has struggled to guard ball screens this season, ranking in the 42nd percentile nationally per Synergy. Maryland is also excellent in spot-up situations, producing 1.012 points per play (85th percentile). That includes catch-and-shoot jumpers but also drives to the bucket — and they shoot an efficient 64.4 percent at the rim.

Maryland runs man-to-man on all but 7.1 percent of defensive possessions, mixing in some zone. The Terrapins rank 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 17th in effective field goal percentage defense (43.4). Opponents shoot just 28.3 percent from three and 43.9 percent on twos.

They also allow the opposition to notch assists on just 42.1 percent of their makes, with Maryland staying home on outside shooters and allowing opponents to shoot just 28.4 percent on spot-up opportunities, which ranks in the 96th percentile in the country.

The Terrapins, too, are susceptible to allowing opponents to have success on ball screens.

Maryland has had impressive victories over Miami and Illinois, and avoided any bad losses, but has fallen to Wisconsin, Tennessee and UCLA — all three good teams, with the latter two ranking top five in Kenpom. The issue in those losses was the Terrapins’ offense, which failed to hit the 0.9 points-per-possession mark in all three games.

Prediction

Michigan is coming off a disastrous loss to Central Michigan — one of the Wolverines’ worst setbacks we can remember. They’ve really dug themselves into a hole this time, and the NCAA Tournament hopes look even more bleak than they did coming into the week.

This is a big game for not just the tournament hopes but the confidence of the team. Head coach Juwan Howard doesn’t want to lose his group this early in the season.

It starts with effort, especially on defense and with rebounding. It also will pay off to get Dickinson involved early and often, and he typically has some extra motivation going against his home-state team that didn’t recruit him.

Outside of going cold shooting the ball in its three losses, Maryland hasn’t beaten itself this season. The Terrapins take care of the ball, are efficient on offense, especially from inside the arc, and play sound defense. Michigan will have to match that, plus get some big-time efforts from Dickinson and others.

Big Ten basketball is a tricky thing to predict. Home teams coming off a lose are often tough to beat. However, we just haven’t seen enough from Michigan to predict a win here.

Prediction: Maryland 70, Michigan 67