Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Minnesota

Michigan Wolverines basketball is set to begin play with a Thursday night tilt at Minnesota. The Maize and Blue have lost two straight, to Virginia and Kentucky, and are looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since last December-January. They’re 5-3 on the season but haven’t won since Nov. 23 against Jackson State.

Head coach Juwan Howard‘s crew will be without graduate point guard Jaelin Llewellyn, who suffered a season-ending knee injury Sunday against Kentucky in London.

Minnesota is 4-4 and ranks 147th nationally in adjusted efficiency margin. The Gophers have lost three consecutive games, to UNLV, Virginia Tech and Purdue, and were picked to finish 12th in the conference by the media.

Here is everything you need to know ahead of tip-off.

RELATED

• What’s next for Michigan with Jaelin Llewellyn out for season? Here are three takes

• Michigan basketball: It’s Dug McDaniel’s time to shine

Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Minnesota

Date	Thursday, Dec. 8, 2022
Venue	Williams Arena (Minneapolis, Minn.)
Time	9:01 p.m. ET (8:01 p.m. CT)
TV / Stream	Big Ten Network / FOX Sports app
On The Call	Cory Provus (play-by-play) and Shon Morris (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -4.5, o/u 135
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan 69, Minnesota 64

Michigan projected starters

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Averaging 15 minutes per game and tallying 4.1 points, 2.1 assists and 2.1 boards … Expected to make his first career start … Shoots 34.1 percent overall — 36.7 percent on twos and 27.3 percent (3-of-11) on threes.

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Averaging 9.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game … Shooting 37 percent from the field, including just 6-of-29 from three (20.7 percent).

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — The head coach’s youngest son is posting 15.3 points, 2.3 assists and 2.4 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 23 made triples on 54 tries (42.6 percent) … Has a 60.7 effective field goal percentage on spot-up shots.

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Recording 7.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per clash while connecting on 38.2 percent of his overall shots and 30 percent of his three-pointers (9-of-30).

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 75th percentile nationally with 1.015 points per post-up possession … Averaging 19.6 points and 9.1 rebounds per game while shooting a whopping 56.1 percent from the field and 3-of-10 from three-point range.

Key bench contributors

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer is averaging 4.4 points and 2.3 rebounds per game while shooting 10-of-21 from long range (47.6 percent) … He’s 1-of-5 on two-point attempts.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 2.4 points and 2.4 rebounds in 9.1 minutes per night … Connects on 58.3 percent of his field goals and is just 5-of-14 from the free throw line.

Minnesota projected starters

• #55 – Junior guard Ta’Lon Cooper (6-4, 195) — The Morehead State transfer is averaging 11.4 points, 7.1 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game, while shooting 48.3 percent from the field, including 54.5 percent from beyond the arc (12-of-22) … Generates 0.9 points per play on pick-and-rolls (including passes), shoots a 70.3 effective field goal percentage on jumpers and connects on only 47.6 percent of his looks at the rim.

• #24 – Freshman guard/forward Jaden Henley (6-7, 200) — Registering 6.3 points and 1.7 rebounds in 24.3 minutes per outing … Shoots 31.8 percent overall and 25 percent from three-point range … Used as a spot-up shooter and pick-and-roll ball handler but is average as both.

• #10 – Junior forward Jamison Battle (6-7, 220) — Has played in just three games after missing the first four with an injury … Averaging 14.7 points and 3.7 rebounds per clash, while connecting on 34.1 percent of his overall shots and 35.7 percent of his triple tries … Is very good at using off-ball screens (1.1 points per possession), spots up and uses ball screens … Shoots 31.4 percent of Minnesota’s shots when he’s on the floor.

• #3 – Sophomore forward Dawson Garcia (6-11, 230) — The North Carolina transfer averaged 9 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in 16 appearances with 12 starts last season … Putting up 13.7 points and 5.6 rebounds per outing this year, while shooting 49.2 percent on two-pointers and 29.6 percent on threes … Produces 0.86 points per post-up possession (including passes) and is also solid as a pick-and-roll roll man (0.91) and cutter (0.93).

• #42 – Sophomore center Treyton Thompson (7-0, 210) — Started the first six games but missed the Purdue tilt with an illness … Averages 11.7 minutes per game and contributes 2.2 points and 2.2 rebounds, while shooting 5-of-17 from the field, including 2-of-10 from long range … Has no post-up possessions this season.

Key bench contributors

• #4 – Freshman guard Braedon Carrington (6-4, 195) — Averages 24.2 minutes per game with five appearances … Posting 7.6 points and 5 rebounds, with a 31.4 field goal percentage, including a 26.9 percent clip from beyond the three-point arc.

• #21 – Freshman forward Pharrel Payne (6-9, 255) — Averaging 6.9 points and 4.7 rebounds in 20.4 minutes per game — eating up the most minutes at the ‘5’ position … Is a good finisher, hitting 75 percent of his shots from the field (21-of-28), all inside the arc … Grades out as an average post-up defender.

• #1 – Freshman forward Joshua Ola-Joseph (6-7, 215) — Started against Purdue in replacement of Thompson (illness) … Averages 18.4 minutes per game … Registers 7.7 points and 2.6 rebounds per night, while shooting 52.3 percent from the field (1-of-5 from three-point range).

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. Minnesota ball screens

Turn the calendar back one year, and Michigan was in an almost identical spot. The Wolverines had lost three non-conference games before their Dec. 11 early Big Ten tilt against an abysmal Minnesota team, and lost 75-65 on their home floor. The Gophers scored 41 of their 75 points on pick-and-roll action and hit a bunch of off-the-dribble jump shots (11). Michigan looked helpless on defense.

Minnesota’s offense has been even worse statistically this season (48.6 effective field goal percentage vs. 50.7), ranking 180th in the nation in offensive efficiency, per Kenpom. But the Gophers still run a lot of ball screen possessions — 26.8 per game, the second-most in the Big Ten behind Michigan. They’re not very efficient at it (0.876 points per play, 172nd in the country), but they weren’t when they carved up Michigan last season, either.

Michigan ranks in the 37th percentile nationally in ball-screen defense, allowing 0.87 points per play (including passes). It’s been an issue in several games, including the blowout loss to Arizona State and a close call against Eastern Michigan in Detroit.

The Wolverines will have to play well in this area even with McDaniel making his first career start at point guard.

Overall offensively, the Gophers have turnover issues (19.6 turnover rate), shooting woes (32.1 percent from three, 48.9 percent from two), free throw struggles (worst nationally at 54.9 percent) and get a lot of shots blocked (11.6 percent).

2. Hunter Dickinson should feast

This is essentially something to watch for every game, but we just saw Purdue dominate inside against Minnesota Sunday night, shooting 54.2 percent on two-pointers and getting 31 points from center Zach Edey.

Dickinson has scored 23 points in each of the last two games and posted 20 or more in five of eight contests this season.

The Gophers rank 52nd in the country by allowing a 45.2-percent two-point shooting mark but have allowed each of their last two opponents — Virginia Tech and Purdue — to shoot over 50 percent from inside the arc. A lot of the good two-point defensive numbers have come against light competition.

Minnesota is also one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the land, with opponents grabbing 36.7 percent of their own missed shots (ranks 346th). Michigan hasn’t been great at grabbing offensive rebounds, but it won’t have to worry about defending a stellar transition offense, since Purdue plays at one of the slowest tempos in the sport, averaging 18.7 seconds per offensive possession.

3. Dug McDaniel and Michigan’s point guard spot

With Llewellyn out for the season, it’s McDaniel’s time to step up. He’s had a rollercoaster of a season as just a bench player but will now have to be a steady hand, and his first game in his new role is an extremely important one if the Wolverines want to stay on track to competing for an NCAA Tournament bid (and potential success in the Big Ten regular season).

McDaniel will get the starting duties at point guard, but expect to see Bufkin run some point for Michigan as well. He’s been one of the Wolverines’ best passers this season and run a lot of ball screens as it is. Jett Howard will also see increased time with the ball in his hands.

That means wing players like Baker and sophomore Isaiah Barnes will likely earn more minutes and have to be productive. It’s “all hands on deck,” as Juwan Howard says, starting tonight.

Prediction

Despite losing the last two games to good teams (Virginia and Kentucky), Michigan has played much better basketball. That has come even without a ton of offensive production from Llewellyn, who combined for 10 points and 6 assists over that stretch, so there’s optimism it can continue. McDaniel can’t be a net negative when he’s on the floor, and Bufkin — who’s a much-improved player from last season — will have to show his increased maturity level to keep things afloat in the backcourt.

Michigan should lean on Dickinson, and needs to get some help from perimeter shot-makers. If the Wolverines stay connected defensively, something they’ve improved upon, at least a bit, as of late, they should be able to hold a brutal Minnesota offense in check.

Prediction: Michigan 68, Minnesota 62