Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Penn State in Big Ten Tournament

Michigan Wolverines basketball enters the Big Ten Tournament in Minneapolis as the No. 14 seed after an 8-23 regular season (3-17 in Big Ten). The Maize and Blue will take on No. 11 seed Penn State Wednesday night for the right to play No. 6 seed Indiana Thursday.

Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off, including our final score prediction.

Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament

Date	Wednesday, March 13, 2024
Venue	Target Center (20,000)
Time	Approx. 9 p.m. ET (25 minutes after first game)
TV / Stream	Peacock (streaming only)
On The Call	Noah Eagle (play-by-play), Robbie Hummel (color) and Zora Stephenson (sideline)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Penn State -6.5, over/under 151
Kenpom Prediction	Penn State 80, Michigan 76 (34-percent chance of U-M victory)

Michigan projected starters

Michigan starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, redshirt sophomore forward Will Tschetter and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua is out for the season after undergoing wrist surgery. Junior guard Jace Howard missed Sunday’s game against Nebraska after being listed as ‘questionable.’

Penn State projected starters

• #1 – Senior guard Ace Baldwin Jr. (6-1, 190) — The VCU transfer was the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year and on the conference’s All-Defensive Team in 2022-23. He’s averaging 14.6 points, 7.1 assists and 3 rebounds per game. He’s dished out 8 or more assists in each of the last four outings. Baldwin is shooting 42.7 percent on twos and 34.8 percent on 135 three-point attempts. He’s up to 37.2 percent from deep during the conference season. He produces 0.9 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which ranks in the 56th percentile in the country per Synergy.

• #2 – Junior guard D’Marco Dunn (6-5, 195) — The North Carolina transfer is registering 7.8 points and 2.1 rebounds per game, while connecting on 42.3 percent of his twos and 36.2 percent of his 80 threes. He has a solid 54.3 effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jump shots.

• #3 – Junior guard Nick Kern Jr. (6-6, 200) — The VCU transfer is posting 9.9 points, 3.6 boards and 1.4 assists per clash. He’s shooting 58.8 percent from inside the arc and is just 4-of-17 from three-point range. He draws 3.9 fouls per 40 minutes (24th in the Big Ten during league play). Kern is a plus athlete who’s seen 87 of his 101 made buckets come at the rim, including 16 dunks. He generates 1.140 points per possession as a cutter.

• #24 – Junior forward Zach Hicks (6-8, 200) — The Temple transfer is putting up 8.5 points and 4.1 rebounds per contest, while shooting 38.7 percent from inside the arc and 32.6 percent on a whopping 178 attempts from downtown. He’s seen 80.9 percent of his field goal attempts come from long range. He’s a spot-up shooter who doesn’t create much off the bounce. His 52 effective field goal percentage on guarded jump shots ranks in the 66th percentile nationally.

• #22 – Graduate forward Qudus Wahab (6-11, 245) — The Georgetown (2019-21, 2022-23) and Maryland (2021-22) transfer is tough to deal with on the glass, where he averages 7 rebounds per game. He ranks eighth and sixth in the Big Ten during league play in offensive rebounding rate and defensive rebounding rate, respectively. He’s blocked 6.8 percent of conference opponents’ shots while he’s on the floor (third). Wahab shoots 62.8 percent from the field (all two-pointers) and is averaging 9.6 points per game. Wahab registers 1.022 points per post-up (including passes), but his strength is as a cutter (1.421) and pick-and-roll man (1.184).

Key bench contributors
• #4 – Senior guard/forward Puff Johnson (6-8, 205) — The North Carolina transfer is averaging 7.1 points and 2.7 rebounds in 18.1 minutes per game as the team’s undersized backup ‘4’ and ‘5.’ He’s shooting 51.3 percent on twos and 35.3 percent on 68 threes.

• #11 – Graduate forward Leo O’Boyle (6-7, 225) — The Lafayette transfer is putting up 2 points in 10.1 minutes per contest as a backup wing. He’s shot 15-of-51 (29.4 percent) from three and 5-of-10 on twos.

• #5 – Sophomore guard Jameel Brown (6-4, 188) — Registering 4.4 points in 10.4 minutes per game, shooting 50 percent on twos (8-of-16) and 32.2 percent on 90 threes.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Penn State

1. Defending Ace Baldwin and Penn State ball screens
Penn State leads the Big Ten with a whopping 35.2 ball-screen possessions per game. The next highest in the league is Michigan at 25. Baldwin, who followed head coach Mike Rhoades from VCU, is second in the conference behind McDaniel with 17.1 possessions per contest.

Penn State is sixth in ball-screen efficiency at 0.937 points per play, and Baldwin is quick and effective as a creator for himself and others. Michigan — which ranks in the sixth percentile nationally in pick-and-roll defense — will have its hands full trying to defend Baldwin and Co.

From an overall standpoint, the Wolverines have allowed over 1.2 points per possession in four of their last five games, ever since Nkamhoua left the lineup with a season-ending injury. The only exception was giving up 1.149 to Ohio State, still much too high of a number. Penn State it 1.098 in the 79-73 win over the Maize and Blue in Philadelphia Jan. 7.

Michigan was the No. 14 defense in the Big Ten during the conference’s regular season and the group has only gotten worse as the season’s gone on.

2. Michigan needs the good Tarris Reed Jr.
Reed has been up and down all season, averaging 8.9 points and 7.2 rebounds on the year, but he’ll have to have one of his good games in this one. There’s an opportunity to win this game on the interior, and certainly the Wolverines’ chances would’ve been much better if Nkamhoua were healthy.

Penn State ranks dead last in the Big Ten in two-point field goal percentage defense (54.9), 13th in defensive free throw rate and 13th in defensive rebounding rate. The Nittany Lions allow 30.1 points at the rim per contest, the third-worst mark in the league (Michigan has the worst at 33.7).

Reed is coming off two disappointing performances, combining for 12 points on 5-of-14 shooting from the field in losses to Nebraska and Ohio State, but he’s bounced back to have some nice nights on occasion this season. Wahab will give him all he can handle down low, but Reed, Tschetter and others will have to hit the offensive glass for second-chance opportunities and finish down low.

Getting stops (easier said than done for Michigan) and clearing the ball with defensive rebounds will also be key. Penn State only grabbed 25.8 percent of its own missed shots during the conference season, ranking 12th in the Big Ten, and doesn’t shoot the ball well with a 51.2 effective field goal percentage.

3. Penn State defense
As mentioned, Penn State has been bludgeoned down low, and the Nittany Lions rank 10th in the Big Ten in overall defensive efficiency.

However, the Nittany Lions have been able to both be aggressive and force a lot of steals (19.1 percent of possessions; second in Big Ten) and limit three-point attempts (33.9 percent of attempts; seventh). The Nittany Lions sprinkle in full-court pressure on just over 25 percent of defensive possessions. They play mostly man to man, switching it up to zone four-percent of the time, per Synergy.

Michigan doesn’t have many ball-handlers, so expect Penn State to get up into McDaniel and the Wolverines’ guards. Turnovers have been an issue for the Wolverines, who gave the ball away on 18.5 percent of trips down the floor during the Big Ten regular season, last in the league.

Big Ten opponents have shot just 31.9 percent on threes against the Nittany Lions. They’re 4-11 when teams shoot better than 27 percent from distance. Michigan hasn’t won a game this season without connecting on 34.6 percent of its three-point tries and likely won’t be able to Wednesday night, either.

Prediction

This is a game between two teams that had some of the most unique situations in the Big Ten this season, behind Illinois guard Terrence Shannon Jr.‘s suspension and subsequent reinstatement after being charged with rape. McDaniel was suspended for six road games, and Penn State leading scorer Kanye Clary was kicked off the team weeks ago after being unhappy with his playing time following his return from injury. Stuff you don’t see every Big Ten season.

Either way, Penn State has been able to weather its storm better than Michigan has its. The Nittany Lions turned over almost their entire roster in Rhoades’ first season, and they’ve gotten better as the season has gone on, going 6-5 in their final regular-season games with a 90-89 signature victory over Illinois Feb. 21. They’ve also beaten Indiana twice, Iowa and Maryland — three competent teams. Michigan, on the other hand, hasn’t proven it can beat anybody, let alone squads like that, having lost 18 of its last 20 and eight contests in a row.

This one will be fast-paced and ugly for stretches, but it’ll be close.

Prediction: Penn State 83, Michigan 81