Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Penn State

Michigan Wolverines basketball will look to collect a second straight win when it hosts Penn State Wednesday night. Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Penn State

Date	Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023
Venue	Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
Time	7:01 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	Big Ten Network or Fox Sports App
On The Call	Kevin Kugler (play-by-play) and Stephen Bardo (analyst)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WTKA (1050 AM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -3, over/under 139.5
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan 72, Penn State 70

Michigan projected starters

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Tallying 6.2 points, 2.9 assists and 2.5 boards per game … Shoots 37.5 percent overall — 39.7 percent on twos and 31.8 percent on threes (7-of-22) … Generates 0.883 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which ranks in the 57th percentile nationally.

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Averaging 12.1 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game … Shooting 47.1 percent from the field, including 15-of-44 from three (34.1 percent) … Puts up 0.838 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which slots in the 47th percentile in the country.

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — The head coach’s youngest son is posting 14.6 points, 2.6 assists and 2.7 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 32 made triples on 87 tries (36.8 percent) … Has a 54.5 effective field goal percentage on jump shots.

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Recording 7.5 points and 6.7 rebounds per clash while connecting on 36.7 percent of his overall shots and 30 percent of his three-pointers (12-of-40) … Is used as a spot-up shooter and offensive rebounder on the offensive end.

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 79th percentile nationally with 1.062 points per post-up possession (including passes) … Averaging 18.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game while shooting 57.1 percent from the field and 5-of-13 from three-point range.

Key bench contributors

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer is averaging 4.5 points and 2.2 rebounds per game while shooting 14-of-29 from long range (48.3 percent) … He’s 3-of-11 on two-point attempts.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 3 points and 3.2 rebounds in 9.8 minutes per night … Connects on 53.1 percent of his field goals (all two-pointers) and is just 5-of-22 from the free throw line (22.7 percent).

Penn State projected starters

• #22 – Fifth-year senior guard Jalen Pickett (6-4, 209) — The Siena transfer joined Penn State before last season … Averaging 16.8 points, 7.5 assists (third in the country) and 7.4 rebounds per game … Shooting 48.2 percent from the field, including 27.7 percent from beyond the arc … Runs nearly half of PSU’s ball screens and produces 1.099 points per play, ranking in the 89th percentile in the country … Posts up on 22.8 percent of his possessions, posing a different challenge than most other point guards.

• #11 – Fifth-year senior guard Camren Wynter (6-2, 200) — The Drexel transfer is recording 9.9 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2 assists per outing, while shooting 45.4 percent from the field and 38.6 percent from three-point range … Generates 1.086 points per play on ball screens.

• #10 – Fifth-year senior guard Andrew Funk (6-5, 200) — The Bucknell transfer is putting up 12.4 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists per clash, while connecting on 45.5 percent of his shots from the field and 43.6 percent of his triple tries … Used primarily as a spot-up shooter and on off-ball screens … Shoots a 62.2 effective field goal percentage on jumpers.

• #1 – Senior guard/forward Seth Lundy (6-6, 220) — Registering 13.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game … Shooting 48.7 percent overall, including 40.3 percent from beyond the arc … Starts at the ‘4’ but sees a lot of time at the ‘5,’ too, with the ability to stretch the floor with his shooting and drive to the bucket.

• #3 – Freshman forward Kebbe Njie (6-10, 237) — Started seven of his 14 appearances this season, including the last three games … Averaging only 13.5 minutes per outing … Posts 4.6 points and 3.9 rebounds per game, and shoots 49 percent from the field (1-of-5 from deep) … Used as a pick-and-roll roll man and cutter more than as a post-up big.

Key bench contributors

• #2 – Fifth-year senior guard/forward Myles Dread (6-4, 235) — Averaging 7.6 points, 2.8 rebounds and 1 assist in 23.1 minutes per game … Shooting 45.8 percent from three-point range, and is only 2-of-3 on two-pointers … Grades out as an ‘excellent’ wing defender, allowing opponents to put up only 0.6 points per spot-up possession … Has 106 career steals.

• #12 – Freshman guard/forward Evan Mahhaffey (6-6, 200) — Posting 2.5 points and 1.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 48.1 percent from the field (1-of-6 from three).

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. Scouting Penn State

From a roster construction standpoint, Penn State is one of the most interesting teams in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions are extremely small, starting a 6-foot-10 center in Njie but having the 6-foot-6 Lundy as the tallest player on the floor most of the time. They run a five-out offense predicated on taking care of the ball and shooting a ton of threes.

Penn State has been very good at it this season. It ranks 33rd in offensive efficiency, first in turnover rate (12.9), 18th in three-point shooting percentage (38.8) and second in two-point field goal percentage (53.5).

The Nittany Lions shoot 47.6 percent of their looks from beyond the arc, the 12th-highest rate in the country, and register assists on 56.4 percent of their makes (61st). Four Nittany Lions have taken more than 40 three-pointers and have a three-point shooting percentage better than 38 percent.

Head coach Micah Shrewsberry, a former Matt Painter assistant at Purdue and Brad Stevens staffer with the Boston Celtics, is known as a top offensive mind. Mostly due to improved shooting numbers, his squad has taken a huge step forward on the offensive end this season.

The Nittany Lions score 25 points per game out of ball screens, the 12th-most in the country.

Penn State’s defense is tough, ranking 64th in efficiency, but different than a year ago. There’s no John Harrar to anchor the middle, so guarding the post has been a struggle (opponents are scoring 1.055 points per post-up possession, including passes), but their quickness on rotations and close-outs has been a positive.

Opponents are shooting just 44.6 percent on twos and 32.5 percent on threes. They’re shooting only 39.8 percent of their shots from deep, with PSU doing a good job of limiting those attempts.

Despite being small, Penn State is a good defensive rebounding team. However, the Nittany Lions don’t force many turnovers at all.

2. Contrast in styles

Michigan is much more traditional, touting a big man, two wings and a pair of guards. That means Dickinson will have to guard the perimeter on the defensive end, where he’s struggled at times during his career. The Wolverines may switch screens and try different things — it’ll be interesting to see what works and what doesn’t.

Michigan has played some teams with similar (lack of) size, but not one that’s as talented and well-coached as Penn State. Jackson State and Ohio lacked size. JSU actually had some success double teaming the post, making Dickinson pass the ball out and recovering with its quickness. Penn State will try to do the same.

At the same time, Dickinson should feast down low if he plays under control and picks his spots. He’s going to be swarmed — Penn State brings help on almost half of opponents’ post-up possessions — and needs to make good decisions. That includes going up over one or two defenders when he has good position.

We wrote more about the contrasting styles between Michigan and Penn State after talking with assistant Saddi Washington and Dickinson here.

Prediction

Michigan held a players-only meeting the morning after Dec. 29’s embarrassing loss to Central Michigan. Candid conversations took place without hurting anyone’s feelings, from the sounds of it, a positive step. Then they went out and dominated Maryland by 35 points.

Now, Washington said this week, Michigan put that performance on film. That’s the new standard, and at the very least, there’s no excuse for not matching the effort that was displayed.

Michigan is really going to be tested by Penn State’s ball-screen offense, and the Nittany Lions will try to pick on Dickinson on the defensive end. The Wolverines are going to give up some buckets and look out of sorts on defense at times. That’s fine as long as they get some back on the other end, specifically using Dickinson’s size to their advantage.

We’ll go with a second-straight Michigan win and some momentum heading into Saturday’s matchup with Michigan State.

Prediction: Michigan 74, Penn State 69