Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Rutgers

Michigan Wolverines basketball (15-12, 9-7 Big Ten) will take on Rutgers (17-10, 9-7) Thursday night in Piscataway. To get you ready for tip-off, here’ a breakdown of each team’s lineup, three things to watch and our final score prediction.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Rutgers

Date	Thursday, Feb. 23, 2023
Venue	Jersey Mike’s Arena (Piscataway, N.J.)
Time	8:30 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	Fox Sports 1 / FoxSports.com
On The Call	Jason Benetti (play-by-play) and Jim Jackson (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Rutgers -6, over/under 133.5
Kenpom Prediction	Rutgers 70, Michigan 64

Projected Michigan starters

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Tallying 7.5 points, 3.6 assists and 3.1 boards per game … Shoots 36.8 percent overall — 39.1 percent on twos and 31.8 percent on threes (20-of-63) … Generates 0.977 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which ranks in the 78th percentile nationally … He’s shooting 44.8 percent on mid-range jumpers (77th percentile).

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Averaging 12.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game … Shooting 48 percent from the field, including 31-of-90 from three (34.4 percent) … Puts up 0.901 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which slots in the 62nd percentile in the country … Shooting jump shots at a 34.2-percent rate but finishes at the rim on a stellar 71.4 percent of his tries.

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — A game-time decision after injuring his right foot Saturday against Michigan State … Posting 14.4 points, 2.1 assists and 2.7 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 69 made triples on 187 tries (36.9 percent) … Has a 53.3 effective field goal percentage on jump shots, which ranks in the 77th percentile in the country … Produces 0.942 point per ball-screen possession (including passes), slotting in the 71st percentile in the land.

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Missed the last two games and is questionable for tonight’s tilt, though he did practice this week … Recording 6.8 points and 6.1 rebounds per clash while connecting on 40.4 percent of his overall shots and 27.4 percent of his three-pointers (17-of-62) … Is used as a spot-up shooter and offensive rebounder on the offensive end, but has struggled with his shot, going 9-of-28 on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (29.9 percent).

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 67th percentile nationally with 0.963 points per post-up possession (including passes), producing 11.5 points per game in those situations (third-most in the Big Ten behind Zach Edey and Trayce Jackson-Davis) … Averaging 17.6 points and 8.5 rebounds per game while shooting 55.2 percent from the field and 17-of-42 from three-point range (40.5 percent).

Key bench contributors

• #42 – Redshirt freshman forward Will Tschetter (6-8, 240) — Started the last two games with Williams out of the lineup … Averaging 2.8 points and 1 rebound per game … Scored 7 points versus MSU … Shoots 55 percent from the field and 4-of-15 from long range.

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer is averaging 5.3 points and 2.2 rebounds per game while shooting 33-of-78 from long range (42.3 percent) … He’s 14-of-36 on two-point attempts (38.9 percent) for the season … 81.7 percent of his shots are jumpers, on which he has a 54.3 effective field goal percentage, and he’s shooting a 55 percent at the rim.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 3.6 points and 3.7 rebounds in 11.8 minutes per night … Connects on 56.3 percent of his field goals (all two-pointers) … Is just 18-of-48 from the free throw line (37.5 percent) but has made 11 of his last 15 attempts … Commits 6.4 fouls per 40 minutes.

Projected Rutgers starters

• #4 – Senior guard Paul Mulcahy (6-7, 213) — Recording 8.7 points, 5.1 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.7 steals (fifth in the Big Ten) per game, while connecting on 43.5 percent of his field goals and 39.5 percent of his three-point attempts (15-of-38) … Runs the most ball screens on the team, generating 0.849 points per play, including passes (51st percentile nationally) … Favors his left hand when driving … He shoots 1 runner per game, converting on 28.6 percent of his attempts, and makes 57.8 percent of his shots at the rim.

• #10 – Senior guard Cam Spencer (6-4, 207) — The Loyola Marymount transfer ranks fifth in the Big Ten with a 42.5 three-point field goal percentage … Making 44 percent of his two-point tries and averaging 12.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game … Ranks fourth nationally in defensive box plus/minus … Runs the second-most ball screens on the team (including passes) and produces 0.755 points per play (28th percentile) … Likes to drive left into pull-up jump shots … Has a 55.2 effective field goal percentage on jump shots, which make up 74.2 percent of his overall attempts, and shoots 72.2 percent at the rim.

• #5 – Junior forward Aundre Hyatt (6-6, 227) — The LSU transfer joined Rutgers ahead of the 2021-22 season … Registering 10 points and 4.4 rebounds per contest, while shooting 39 percent overall and 31.7 percent from deep as a high-volume three-point shooter (29-of-123) … Used as a spot-up shooter on the wing.

• #1 – Junior forward Oskar Palmquist (6-8, 220) — The Sweden native made his first career start at Wisconsin with Caleb McConnell out of the lineup … Putting up 2.4 points and 1.1 rebounds per outing, while shooting 40 percent from the field and 38.1 percent from beyond the arc (8-of-21) … Despite his size, he has just 1 post-up possession this season, and is almost exclusively used as a spot-up man with 86.7 percent of his shots being jumpers.

• #11 – Junior center Clifford Omoruyi (6-11, 240) — Leads the team in points (13.4), rebounds (9.8) and blocks (2.1) per game … Shoots 50.5 percent from the field and is 4-of-21 from three-point range … Solid on post-ups, generating 0.903 points per play (including passes), which ranks in the 53rd percentile nationally, but also scores on cuts (2.7 points per game), put-backs (2.6) and ball-screen rolls (1.1) … He makes just 36.1 percent of his hook shots but 64 percent of his attempts at the rim.

Key bench contributors

• #0 – Freshman guard Derek Simpson (6-3, 170) — The former three-star, top-250 recruit is averaging 5.8 points, 1.4 assists and 1.3 boards per game, while shooting 36.4 percent from the field and 22.7 percent from range (10-of-44) … Not a very efficient scorer at this point, but he does have a knack for getting to the rim, with 61 of his 161 shot attempts having come in close.

• #21 – Junior forward Dean Reiber (6-10, 225) — Putting up 1.9 points and 1.2 rebounds per contest, and shooting 39.6 percent from the field (5-of-20 from three-point range).

Doubtful

• #22 – Fifth-year senior guard Caleb McConnell (6-7, 200) — Missed the last game at Wisconsin with a back injury and is doubtful for tonight’s clash … Known as an elite wing defender, ranking third nationally in defensive box plus/minus, and leads the Big Ten with 2.5 steals per game … Adds 9.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3 assists per game, while shooting 39.5 percent from the field and 10-of-50 from long range.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. Rutgers’ defense and how injuries impact it

Rutgers has always been good defensively under head coach Steve Pikiell, but this is his best team on that end of the floor, per the efficiency numbers. The Scarlet Knights rank fourth nationally and first in the Big Ten during league play on Kenpom.

Rutgers is very good at limiting opponents to woeful shooting numbers and forcing turnovers, a fantastic combination, and the only knock is that the defensive rebounding has slipped a bit during league play. The Scarlet Knights rank first in the league in two-point field goal percentage defense (45.8) and eighth in three-point field goal percentage defense (34.4) during the conference season. They’re forcing turnovers on 19.7 percent of possessions (second).

Pikiell’s group plays an aggressive style, leading the league with 9 steals per game, with three players who rank top five in the Big Ten in steals per game (McConnell is first, Spencer is third and Mulcahy is fifth). Omoruyi leads the Big Ten with a 9.4 block percentage in conference play, a great rim protector.

Despite Omoruyi grading out in the 81st percentile in post-up defense, they still bring double-teams and digs, which has allowed Big Ten opponents to shoot 42.8 percent of their looks from three-point range, the second-highest three-point volume allowed in the league.

Rutgers has been hit with the injury bug as of late. Junior starting power forward Mawot Mag went down with a season-ending knee injury Feb. 4 against MSU at Madison Square Garden, and the Scarlet Knights’ defense has suffered as a result. They lost their next three games, surrendering over 1 point per possession in each despite only doing so five other times throughout the season.

In those three losses, opponents shot 55 percent from inside the arc. The Scarlet Knights allowed 27, 27 and 28 points at the rim in those games, after not allowing more than 26 in a contest since November.

Now, McConnell is doubtful to play. He’s one of the top wing defenders in the country, a total game-changer. He missed the game against Wisconsin — the Badgers had one of their typical mediocre offensive games — but if Michigan is healthy itself the Wolverines may be able to better exploit Rutgers not having McConnell.

2. Rutgers is not a good offensive team

Pikiell is much better at recruiting and teaching defense than offense, but that may improve as he continues to build his program and land more talented recruits (Rutgers’ 2024 class currently ranks fourth on the On3 Consensus, with one five-star and one four-star!).

Rutgers doesn’t use many ball screens, instead running 14.8 post-up possessions per game (including passes), the fourth-most in the Big Ten, with 12.7 of their points on average coming in that setting.

That leads to a lot of hook shots and passes to cutters — luckily for their opponents, not a lot of three-point attempts, with Rutgers ranking 325th nationally in three-point volume. They do notch assists on 59.6 percent of their shot attempts, though (20th).

Rutgers shoots 32.4 percent on threes (258th in the country) and 48.2 percent on twos (258th), but turns it over on just 17.3 percent of its trips down the floor (97th).

Michigan has to be aware of Spencer at all times. He hit 6 of 10 three-point attempts last game against Wisconsin. McDaniel may draw that matchup to start, with Bufkin on Mulcahy, given the latter’s size at 6-foot-7 (he’s not afraid to post up smaller defenders and generates 1.133 points per possession in that setting). The Scarlet Knights run him around a lot of off-ball screens, and whoever is guarding him will have to fight through those.

3. Michigan injuries and everything on the line

Michigan was waiting to see how Williams (knee contusion) reacted to being a full practice participant earlier in the week, but it seems likely he plays barring a setback. Jett Howard, too, will go if he can, a “game-time decision” after appearing to sprain his ankle Saturday night.

That’s the case for Howard because Michigan is in full-on desperation mode heading into the final four regular-season games. And given Rutgers’ recent slippage and injury situation, this looks like the most winnable road game out of the last three, with Illinois and Indiana being the others.

The Wolverines have won just two road games this season — at Minnesota and at Northwestern — and will play in a daunting venue in Piscataway. Road Big Ten teams are shooting just 45.3 percent on twos and 30.3 percent on threes at Jersey Mike’s Arena. Nebraska just came in and made everything, though, shooting 74.1 percent on twos and 42.9 percent on threes, in a 10-point win last Tuesday, so it’s not impossible to have that type of performance (the Cornhuskers have actually won four of five).

With the amount of help Rutgers gives on defense, Michigan is going to have opportunities to knock down three-pointers. Whether or not the shots go in could decide the game. Rutgers is 1-7 when opponents make 40 or more percent of their threes.

Here’s what the Scarlet Knights did against Wisconsin’s Steven Crowl. Just imagine what it’ll be like against Dickinson. Having Jett Howard will help here, and Baker’s shot-making could be key.

Prediction

Kenpom has this as a six-point game in favor of Rutgers, but that doesn’t take injuries into account. The Scarlet Knights are a better team, especially at home, but are as ripe to be picked off as they’ve been this season due to being short-handed.

This is still going to be tough for Michigan to pull off. It has to be strong with the ball and knock down enough shots in a hostile environment.

Prediction: Rutgers 68, Michigan 65