Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Tarleton State

No. 20 Michigan Wolverines basketball is looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 80-62 loss to Arizona in the Roman Main Event championship, and has a solid opportunity to do so with 1-4 Tarleton State — led by head coach Billy Gillespie — heading to Crisler Center for a Wednesday night matchup.

Michigan has wins over Buffalo, Prairie View and UNLV, while the Texans have fallen to Stanford, Kansas, Wichita State and North Dakota State, with a victory over NAIA school Paul Quinn.

Here is everything you need to get ready for the game, including breakdowns on key players, analysis on the matchup, our final score prediction and more.

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Game Information: Michigan vs. Tarleton State

Date: Wednesday, Nov. 24, 2021

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Venue: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)

Channel: Big Ten Network

On The Call: Kevin Kugler (play-by-play) and Brian Butch (color)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Michigan -22, o/u 129.5

Kenpom Prediction: Michigan 74, Tarleton State 63

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (4-1 ATS): Michigan 77, Tarleton State 62

Michigan Projected Starters

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 8.6 points, 4.6 assists and 6.2 rebounds per game, while shooting 46.9 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from long range … He’s averaging 3.2 fouls per contest and has been in foul trouble in three of five tilts.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain is posting 15.8 points, 4.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists per outing, while shooting 54.0 percent overall and 47.4 percent from three.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 7.8 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists per clash, while shooting 31.0 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from long range.

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — Notching 5.4 points and 2.4 boards per outing, while shooting 37.9 percent from the field and 1-of-8 from three-point range.

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The 2021 second-team All-American is leading the team with 16.0 points and 7.8 rebounds, with 10 assists … Shooting 61.8 percent from the field and has made one of his four three-point attempts.

Key Bench Contributors

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — Playing 16.4 minutes per game off the bench … Averaging 6.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per tilt … Made 13-of-21 shot attempts (61.9 percent) and is 6-of-15 from the free throw line.

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 17.8 minutes per contest, while averaging 6.8 points and 4.0 rebounds and shooting 38.5 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from long range.

• #2 – Freshman guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 175) — Averaging 10.4 minutes per game … Contributing 3.4 points and 1.4 rebounds per clash, while shooting 45.5 percent from the field and 1-of-5 from deep.

Tarleton State Projected Starters

• #11 – Senior guard Montre Gipson (5-11) — Averaging 14.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game, while shooting 50.0 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from deep … He leads the country by playing 98.1 percent of the team’s minutes.

• #3 – Sophomore guard Shamir Bogues (6-4) — Putting up 7.6 points and 1.6 rebounds per tilt, while shooting 43.2 percent overall and making just one of his four three-point attempts.

• #4 – Senior guard Tahj Small (6-5) — The Troy transfer is registering 11.8 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 45.5 percent from the field and just 21.4 percent from downtown.

• #13 – Senior guard Shakur Daniel (6-6) — Compiling 5.6 points 3.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists per contest, while shooting 34.4 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from long range … Is the team’s highest usage player in isolation sets.

• #2 – Sophomore guard/forward Freddy Hicks (6-6) — Averaging 8.8 points and 5.4 boards per outing, while shooting 28.9 percent frmo the field and 26.7 percent from long range.

Key Bench Contributor

• #14 – Junior guard Javontae Hopkins (6-0) — The only bench player who plays a significant role, Hopkins averages 13.4 minutes per game and contributes 2.2 points and 1.8 rebounds.

Matchup Breakdown

• Tarleton State’s offense has been poor through five games. The Texans have played three top-60 defensive teams in Stanford, Kansas and Wichita State, and it won’t get any easier in a game against the Wolverines, who rank eighth in Kenpom‘s defensive efficiency.

According to Synergy, the Texans run the 10th-most half-court isolation sets in the country (10.8 percent of possessions). They average 21.0 seconds per possession, the second-slowest rate in the nation, and have assists on only 38.1 percent of their made field goals (334th nationally). Michigan was torn apart by Arizona’s ball-screen offense, but it won’t face anything like that in this game. Tarleton State runs the pick-and-roll on just 6.3 percent of its possessions (341st most in the nation), so we won’t get the opportunity to see what changes or improvements the Wolverines have made to their ball-screen coverage in this one.

• Some stats to consider when discussing Tarleton State’s offense: 42.6 effective field goal percentage (313rd nationally), 19.6 turnover percentage (196th), 25.4 offensive rebound percentage (246th), 23.9 three-point field goal percentage (338th), 45.6 two-point field goal percentage (253rd).

• Tarleton State is also one of the shortest teams in the country when it comes to who plays, and their bench sees the floor just 16.2 percent of its minutes (321st). This will be an undersized team with not much depth to turn to when things go south. They see 14.1 percent of their shots get blocked and allow 31.6 percent of opponents’ shots to result in offensive rebounds.

• The Texans’ defense isn’t much better than their offense. Kansas scored a whopping 1.33 points per possession, with the Texans hardly putting up a fight, and they’re allowing exactly one point per play on the year. Opponents are shooting 38.7 percent from long range and shoot 47.4 percent of their shots from long range. It will be telling if the Wolverines’ three-point struggles continue in this game, considering how bad the Texans are at defending the arc.

• Tarleton State runs man-to-man defense and pressures full court on 12.4 percent of possessions. The Texans force turnovers on 22.4 percent of possessions, and Michigan has had trouble with giveaways this year (19.3 turnover percentage; 181st nationally). They double team the post more than half of the time, and either switch or trap ball screens depending on the situation.

• Let’s talk Michigan now. The Wolverines will likely run away with a 20-plus-point victory, and we’re not sure there will be a lot to take away due to Tarleton State’s roster composition, style of play and lack of talent. However, head coach Juwan Howard‘s group has a lot to work on, including knowing the right plays and taking coaching with the right attitude (those are things he publicly identified), and it will be obvious whether or not strides were made. The Maize and Blue have a road test at North Carolina and at home against San Diego State next week. Those two games are losable if they don’t put forth a better effort.