Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Toledo

Michigan Wolverines basketball (17-15) is a No. 3 seed in the NIT and set to host MAC regular-season champion Toledo (27-7) Tuesday night at Crisler Center. Here’s a breakdown of key players, three things to watch for and our final score prediction.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Toledo

Date	Tuesday, March 14, 2023
Venue	Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
Time	7:01 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	ESPN2
On The Call	Doug Sherman (play-by-play) and Cory Alexander
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -6, over/under 163
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan 87, Toledo 79

Projected Michigan starters

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Tallying 8.1 points, 3.5 assists and 3 boards per game … Shoots 37.1 percent overall — 39.3 percent on twos and 32.5 percent on threes (27-of-83) … Generates 0.973 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which ranks in the 79th percentile nationally … He’s shooting 45.2 percent on mid-range jumpers (79th percentile).

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Averaging 13.7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game … Shooting 47.7 percent from the field, including 40-of-115 from three (34.8 percent) … Puts up 0.927 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which slots in the 68th percentile in the country … Shooting jump shots at a 35.7-percent rate but finishes at the rim on a stellar 70.9 percent of his tries (92nd percentile).

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — Posting 14.2 points, 2 assists and 2.8 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 78 made triples on 212 tries (36.8 percent) … Has a 53.4 effective field goal percentage on jump shots, which ranks in the 79th percentile in the country … Produces 0.935 point per ball-screen possession (including passes), slotting in the 71st percentile in the land.

• #42 – Redshirt freshman forward Will Tschetter (6-8, 240) — Started the last seven games but has played 20 or fewer minutes in each of the last six … Averaging 2.3 points and 1.3 rebounds per game … Shoots 51.2 percent from the field and 4-of-18 from long range … Commits a team-high 6.2 fouls per 40 minutes.

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 65th percentile nationally with 0.953 points per post-up possession (including passes), producing 12.2 points per game in those situations (seventh nationally) … Averaging 18.4 points and 9 rebounds per game while shooting 55.6 percent from the field and 24-of-55 from three-point range (43.6 percent) … Averaging 25.5 points per game over his last four.

Key bench contributors

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Recording 6.2 points and 5.9 rebounds per clash while connecting on 38.4 percent of his overall shots and 25.4 percent of his three-pointers (17-of-67) … Is used as a spot-up shooter and offensive rebounder on the offensive end, but has struggled with his shot, going 9-of-31 on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (29 percent).

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer is averaging 5.1 points and 2.2 rebounds per game while shooting 38-of-100 from long range (38 percent) … He’s 14-of-42 on two-point attempts (35.7 percent) for the season … 81.1 percent of his shots are jumpers, on which he has a 50.4 effective field goal percentage, and he’s shooting 48 percent at the rim.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 3.5 points and 3.9 rebounds in 12.8 minutes per night … Connects on 53 percent of his field goals (all two-pointers) … Is just 23-of-59 from the free throw line (39 percent) … Commits 5.9 fouls per 40 minutes … Is an athletic, switchable defender who blocks 7.4 percent of opponents’ shots when he’s on the floor.

Projected Toledo starters

• #10 – Junior guard RayJ Dennis (6-2, 185) — The Boise State transfer and unanimous choice for MAC Player of the Year is averaging 19.7 points, 5.7 assists and 4.4 rebounds per contest, while shooting 49.2 percent overall and 37.1 percent from three (52-of-140) … Generates 0.945 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), which checks in the 74th percentile in the country … Scores 2.6 points per game from isolations, which ranks 17th in the country, and 10.6 points per contest from ball screens, including passes (74th) … Here are some quick clips of his dribble jumper, floater and ability to get to the rim for layups.

• #21 – Sophomore guard Dante Maddox Jr. (6-2, 195) — The Cal State Fullerton transfer puts up 11.5 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.9 assists per contest, shooting 49.4 percent overall with a 45.4-percent three-point clip (64-of-141) … 70.7 percent of his shots are jumpers, on which he has an elite 63.2 effective field goal percentage … Mostly a spot-up shooter but will also run ball screens and isolate.

• #0 – Sophomore guard Ra’Heim Moss (6-4, 205) — Registers 8.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists per outing … Shoots 46.5 percent overall and 32.2 percent from beyond the arc (29-of-90) … He doesn’t have a high usage rate (15.1) but 57 of his 61 made twos have come at the rim.

• #4 – Senior forward Setric Millner (6-7, 205) — The Grand Rapids (Mich.) Christian product and former high school teammate of Kobe Bufkin was a second-team All-MAC selection this season … Averages 16 points, 6 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game, while shooting 49.7 percent overall and 43.3 percent from three-point range (58-of-134) … A jack-of-all-trades offensively, he scores 4.9 points per game in spot-up situations, 2.6 in transition, 2.3 on cuts, 1.2 on post-ups and 1.1 on isolations.

• #32 – Senior forward JT Shumate (6-7, 210) — The first-team All-MAC choice posts 16 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.4 assists per contest, connecting on 53.9 percent of his field goal attempts, including 40.2 percent of his three-point tries (53-of-132) … Has made 7 pick-and-pop threes this season, scores 1.318 points per possession on post-ups and also makes catch-and-shoot jumpers out of spot ups.

Key bench contributors

• #2 – Sophomore guard EJ Farmer (6-5, 175) — Plays the ‘2’ and ‘3’ off the bench … Registers 6 points and 1.8 boards per contest, while shooting 53.2 percent overall (12-of-30 on threes) … Spots up, cuts and runs ball screens.

• #15 – Junior forward/center AJ Edu (6-10, 225) — The England native is Toledo’s backup big who plays 12.3 minutes per game … Records 2.8 points and 3 rebounds per game, and shoots 48.3 percent from the field (all two-pointers) … Doesn’t stretch the floor with his outside shot but has seen 28 of his points come on put-backs, 30 on cuts and 25 on ball screen rolls.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. Up-tempo game

Toledo plays at the 63rd-fastest pace in the country, averaging 16.6 seconds per offensive possession, while Michigan hardly ever runs in transition and is more methodical. The Wolverines prefer to play in a half-court game and stress limiting fast-break opportunities for their opponent, but Toledo will test that and look to get out and run.

It’s harder to control the pace when trying to play slow as opposed to fast, so we could see this one played at a furious pace, which would be at least fun for the objective viewer. Kenpom is calling for 166 total points and Vegas has the over/under at 163.

2. Great offense will prevail

Toledo is the most offense-dependent team in the country, per Kenpom, with a ridiculous split — ranking fifth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 287th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Given how good Toledo’s offense is and bad its defense is, and that Michigan is a solid team on each end of the floor, somebody will likely score 1.15 points per possession. The Rockets are 22-1 when they hit that number (5-6 when they don’t) and 4-6 when they allow that number on the other end (23-1 when they don’t). Whatever team hits the 1.15 PPP mark will win the game.

Michigan will have a huge size advantage on the inside. Dickinson may go for 25-plus points regardless of what happens. Him drawing attention will open up looks for his teammates — expect a lot of switches and help defense — and if they take advantage, the Wolverines will be virtually unstoppable offensively. The Rockets are terrible on the glass — ranking 298th in the country in defensive rebounding rate — so Michigan will have a chance to clean up some of its misses, too.

At the same time, Toledo will space Michigan out and look to drive to the bucket or kick out to open shooters and get some three-point looks off pick-and-pops. The Rockets are shooting 39.9 percent on threes this season, which ranks second nationally, with four of five starters having made 50-plus threes and shooting 37 percent or better from beyond the arc. That level of three-point shooting ability makes Toledo dangerous — that profile resembles the type of team you wouldn’t necessarily like to see in the NCAA Tournament, for example.

Dennis, especially, will be tough to stay in front of. Michigan’s guards have their work cut out for them. If he draws help even when he doesn’t score himself, his shooters will get clean looks.

3. Michigan’s approach

Michigan is a program that not only expects to make the NCAA Tournament but go on a run each season, so not making the Big Dance is a huge disappointment. The Wolverines can put that behind them, play looser without a burden and win some games this month, though, and that starts Tuesday night at Crisler.

Michigan head coach Juwan Howard and players have said through written statements that they’re motivated to win a championship, but how they perform on the floor will be the only thing that truly reveals where this team’s head is at.

Howard could also open up his rotation to give younger players an opportunity for some more game experience, try different things on each end of the floor. Or maybe he sticks with what Michigan has been doing. It’ll be fascinating, if nothing else, to see this program in the NIT for the first time since 2006. Things were way different back then, of course, when Tommy Amaker was fighting to keep his job and ultimately fired.

***We gave five in-depth takes on the Michigan vs. Toledo matchup in an article Monday morning. Check that out here.***

Prediction

It’s so hard to predict what will happen in this matchup that features so many key factors, including Michigan’s level of motivation, Toledo’s offense and three-point shooting, the size disparity between the teams and more. The Rockets haven’t faced a high-major opponent, either, so there’s no indication as to what it’ll look like in this setting.

If Michigan comes to play, it should win a fun game on its home floor.

Prediction: Michigan 91, Toledo 80