Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Virginia

Michigan Wolverines basketball is set to host the third-ranked Virginia Cavaliers for the ACC / Big Ten Challenge Tuesday night at Crisler Center.

Michigan has struggled in the early season, with a blowout loss to Arizona State and close calls to MAC schools Eastern Michigan and Ohio, and now the schedule gets even tougher. The Wolverines will take on Virginia Tuesday, hop on a plane bound for London Wednesday, play Kentucky Sunday and travel home the following day. A Big Ten opener against Minnesota is next, and a trip to Charlotte to take on North Carolina looms later in the month.

Virginia’s story so far has been the exact opposite. It has vaulted to No. 3 in the rankings after a 5-0 start that includes signature wins over Baylor and Illinois in Las Vegas. The Cavaliers rank fifth nationally on Kenpom, turning things around after missing the NCAA Tournament last season. They have one of the most experienced teams in the sport.

Here is everything you need to know before tip-off, including our final score prediction.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Virginia

Date	Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2022
Venue	Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
Time	9:35 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	ESPN / Watch ESPN app
On The Call	Karl Ravech (play-by-play), Jimmy Dykes (color) and Myron Medcalf (sideline)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Virginia -3.5, o/u 128.5
Kenpom Prediction	Virginia 67, Michigan 62

Michigan projected starters

• #3 – Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn (6-2, 190) — The 2022 first-team All-Ivy League standout is putting up 7.7 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game while shooting 30.2 percent from the field and 3-of-22 from long range (13.6 percent) … Producing 0.933 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), which ranks in the 63rd percentile nationally.

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Averaging 9.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3 assists per game … Shooting 36.4 percent from the field, including just 4-of-24 from three (16.7 percent).

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — The head coach’s son is posting 15.2 points, 2.5 assists and 2 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 18 made triples on 41 tries (43.9 percent) … Has a 65.4 effective field goal percentage on spot-up shots.

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Recording 8.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per clash while connecting on 37 percent of his overall shots and 30.4 percent of his three-pointers.

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 82nd percentile nationally with 1.1 points per post-up possession … Averaging 18.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game while shooting a whopping 60 percent from the field and 2-of-6 from three-point range.

Key bench contributors

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Averaging 15.8 minutes per game and tallying 4.7 points, 2.7 assists and 2.5 boards … Shoots 33.3 percent overall — 38.5 percent on twos and 20 percent (2-of-10) on threes.

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer is averaging 5.3 points and 2.3 rebounds per game while shooting 9-of-19 from long range … He’s 1-of-5 on two-point attempts.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 2.7 points and 2.3 rebounds in 10.7 minutes per night … Connects on 54.5 percent of his field goals and is just 4-of-12 from the free throw line.

Virginia projected starters

• #0 – Graduate guard Kihei Clark (5-10, 167) — The Cousy Award preseason watch list member is averaging 8.2 points and 5.2 assists per game, while shooting 41.2 percent from the field, including 43.8 percent from long range (7-of-16) … Outstanding as a pick-and-roll ball handler, generating 1.1 points per play, which ranks in the 80th percentile in the country.

• #2 – Junior guard Reece Beekman (6-3, 190) — Putting up 11 points, 4.8 assists and 2.5 rebounds per outing, while connecting on 37.5 percent of his field goal attempts, including a 50-percent clip from beyond the arc (6-of-12) … Fourteen of his 44 points have come in transition (1.4 points per play) … Also used as a spot-up shooter (0.9) and a pick-and-roll ball handler (0.5).

• #4 – Senior guard Armaan Franklin (6-4, 200) — Averaging 16 points and 3.2 rebounds per game … Shoots 48.7 percent from the field, including 45.5 percent from three-point range (10-of-22) … He moves extremely well without the ball, is an elite shooter (having taken a big jump from his 29.6 three-point field goal percentage last season) and is a strong perimeter defender … Transferred in from Indiana ahead of the 2021-22 season.

• #1 – Fifth-year senior forward Jayden Gardner (6-6, 233) — Recording 11.4 points and 5 rebounds per game, and shooting 54.3 percent from the field (all two-pointers) … Does not stretch the floor, mostly being used as a cutter, post-up forward and offensive rebounder.

• #21 – Redshirt junior forward Kadin Shedrick (6-11, 231) — Averaging 10.8 points and 4.6 boards per game, while shooting 68.4 percent from the field (all two-pointers) … Has 6 blocks and 4 assists on the season … Only posts up on 7.3 percent of his possessions but is an excellent cutter, pick-and-roll big and finisher in transition … Ranks 20th nationally in steal rate and 56th in block rate.

Key bench contributors

• #5 – Graduate forward Ben Vander Plas (6-8, 236) — The Ohio transfer plays 21.8 minutes per game off the bench … Averaging 8.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2 assists per game, and shooting 6-of-13 on three-pointers … Plays both the ‘4’ and the ‘5’ off the bench but is mostly used as a spot-up shooter.

• #11 – Freshman guard Isaac McKneely (6-4, 179) — Sees 17.8 minutes per game, generating 5.4 points and 1.2 rebounds … The spot-up shooter connects on 50 percent of his threes (8-of-16) and is only 1-of-6 on twos.

Scouting report

It’s no secret that Virginia runs the pack line defense, created by Bennett’s father, Dick, who was highly successful with Wisconsin Stevens-Point and later moved up to the D-I level. The Cavaliers’ goal is to limit penetration into the lane, with help defender playing in gaps rather than denying passes.

Virginia ranks 14th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and is especially strong on the interior (no surprise). The Cavaliers are allowing opponents to shoot just 45.2 percent on two-pointers and hardly ever get to the foul line.

They’re great at guarding the post, which will make things tough for Dickinson, allowing only 0.67 points per post-up possession (including passes). That ranks in the 91st percentile nationally. They do double the post and bring help most of the time, which allows a lot of three-point field goal attempts. Michigan, as most know, has been abysmal from deep, though, shooting 31.8 percent from beyond the arc, so they’ll likely live with giving up those looks in exchange for making life difficult for Dickinson.

Their three-point defense hasn’t been as good, giving up a 34-percent clip while allowing a lot of long attempts. Opponents are recording assists on just 42.2 percent of their made field goals, the 43rd-best mark in the nation and eight points under the national average.

Howard pointed to Virginia’s connectivity when discussing why the Cavaliers have been so early going. That’s been evident in the early going this year on both ends of the floor They returned all five starters and have taken a big jump this season, now looking like one of the very best teams in America.

The offense ranked 85th nationally a year ago but is up to fifth at this point. The Cavaliers play at a snail’s pace, ranking second-to-last in the country in tempo, but are extremely efficient and a great shooting group.

Virginia has a 58.6 effective field goal percentage, shooting 44.8 percent from three-point range (fourth in the nation) and 53 percent on two-point shots (84th), while turning the ball over on just 15.8 percent of its trips (38th). The Cavaliers also grab 32.1 percent of their offensive misses (97th) and get to the foul line the second-most out of any team in the country.

We’ll stop short of saying Virginia’s offense is a nightmare for Michigan, which has struggled mightily on defense and the glass, but it’s a tough matchup.

The style in which Virginia plays — motion offense, not many ball screens — is a welcomed sight for Michigan, which is not good against pick-and-roll plays. The Cavaliers are so good at what they do, though, led by a play-making point guard in Clark, that it’s still going to be tough. Michigan must stay connected defensively and not miss assignments. Otherwise, the Cavaliers will burn them with their ball movement. They have the best assist rate in the country, with 71.3 percent of their makes coming from assists.

Prediction

Virginia is off to one of the best starts in college basketball this season, while Michigan has a long way to go to looking like an NCAA Tournament team, let alone a Big Ten or national title contender.

Virginia wins by being the more disciplined team, so Michigan will have to match that. The Wolverines have had nearly a week of practice to grow — Howard has insisted it’s early and his team will get better — so we hope to see a better effort from the opening tip on.

The Wolverines have a tough stretch upcoming, and protecting home court and notching a huge win over Virginia would be massive for not only the resume but also the confidence of the team going forward. However, it’s tough to say that’s the likely scenario. Virginia knows what it is, while the Wolverines are still trying to figure out what they are.

Prediction: Virginia 71, Michigan 60