Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Wisconsin

Michigan Wolverines basketball (16-12, 10-7 Big Ten) will host Wisconsin (16-11, 8-9) Sunday afternoon at Crisler Center. Graduate guard Joey Baker will be honored for senior day.

To get you ready for tip off, here’s a breakdown of key players, three things to watch for and our final score prediction.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Wisconsin

Date	Sunday, Feb. 26, 2023
Venue	Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
Time	2:07 p.m. ET (possible five-minute slide to 2:12)
TV / Stream	CBS
On The Call	Andrew Catalon (play-by-play) and Steve Lappas (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -4.5, over/under 129
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan 67, Wisconsin 62

Projected Michigan starters

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Scored 18 and 16 points in the last two games, leading the team in both … Tallying 7.8 points, 3.6 assists and 3.2 boards per game … Shoots 37.5 percent overall — 40.5 percent on twos and 31.4 percent on threes (22-of-70) … Generates 0.988 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which ranks in the 80th percentile nationally … He’s shooting 47.1 percent on mid-range jumpers (84th percentile).

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Averaging 12.9 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game … Shooting 48.3 percent from the field, including 33-of-95 from three (34.7 percent) … Puts up 0.904 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which slots in the 63rd percentile in the country … Shooting jump shots at a 34.6-percent rate but finishes at the rim on a stellar 72 percent of his tries.

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — Missed the Rutgers game with an apparent right foot injury, after going down in the second half of the previous contest versus Michigan State … Posting 14.4 points, 2.1 assists and 2.7 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 69 made triples on 187 tries (36.9 percent) … Has a 53.3 effective field goal percentage on jump shots, which ranks in the 77th percentile in the country … Produces 0.942 point per ball-screen possession (including passes), slotting in the 72nd percentile in the land.

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Returned in a bench role at Rutgers, after missing the prior two games with a knee contusion, playing 22 minutes and collecting 9 rebounds with 4 points … Recording 6.7 points and 6.2 rebounds per clash while connecting on 40 percent of his overall shots and 26.6 percent of his three-pointers (17-of-64) … Is used as a spot-up shooter and offensive rebounder on the offensive end, but has struggled with his shot, going 9-of-28 on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (29.9 percent).

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 67th percentile nationally with 0.955 points per post-up possession (including passes), producing 11.8 points per game in those situations (third-most in the Big Ten behind Zach Edey and Trayce Jackson-Davis) … Averaging 17.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game while shooting 54.7 percent from the field and 18-of-45 from three-point range (40 percent).

Key bench contributors

• #42 – Redshirt freshman forward Will Tschetter (6-8, 240) — Started the last three games but may come off the bench with Williams back … Averaging 2.7 points and 1 rebound per game … Shoots 53.7 percent from the field and 4-of-16 from long range.

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer is averaging 5.3 points and 2.2 rebounds per game while shooting 35-of-87 from long range (40.2 percent) … He’s 14-of-38 on two-point attempts (36.8 percent) for the season … 81.7 percent of his shots are jumpers, on which he has a 52.4 effective field goal percentage, and he’s shooting 50 percent at the rim.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 3.6 points and 3.8 rebounds in 11.9 minutes per night … Connects on 56.2 percent of his field goals (all two-pointers) … Is just 18-of-48 from the free throw line (37.5 percent) but has made 11 of his last 15 attempts … Commits 6.1 fouls per 40 minutes.

Projected Wisconsin starters

• #23 – Sophomore guard Chucky Hepburn (6-2, 205) — Averaging 12.4 points, 2.9 assists and 3 rebounds per outing … Shooting 38.3 percent overall and 43.5 percent on three-pointers (57-of-131) … Generates a below average 0.712 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), which ranks in the 20th percentile nationally, and is actually better as a spot-up shooter … 71.5 percent of his shot attempts are jumpers, on which he has a 51.3 effective field goal percentage … Most of his jumpers are off the dribble, and he shoots just 40.6 percent at the rim.

• #11 – Junior guard Max Klesmit (6-3, 200) — The Wofford transfer is registering 7.5 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.4 assists per contest, while connecting on 40.4 percent of his shots from the field and 37.1 percent of his looks from deep (33-of-89) … Mostly used as a spot-up shooter, who’s also good at coming around off-ball screens … Has a 53.6 effective field goal percentage on jump shots, and also uses a runner, which he shoots at 37.5 percent … He finishes on 48.8 percent of his shots at the rim.

• #3 – Freshman guard Connor Essegian (6-4, 285) — Exploded for a game-high 23 points in the first meeting with Michigan … Averaging 11.7 points and 3.5 rebounds per clash, while shooting 41.4 percent overall and 39.7 percent on three-pointers (60-of-151) … 105 of his points have come on spot-ups, 75 have been from off-ball screens, 23 have come off cuts and another 22 from dribble handoffs … His 54.7 effective field goal percentage on jump shots, which make up 74.9 percent of his attempts, ranks in the 82nd percentile nationally.

• #5 – Senior forward Tyler Wahl (6-9, 225) — Posting 11.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game, while shooting 41.2 percent from the field and 7-of-29 from beyond the arc as Wisconsin’s second-highest usage offensive player … Generates 0.897 points per post-up possession (including passes), which grades out in the 53rd percentile in the country … He’s 10-of-51 on all jump shots this season and is making 54.7 percent of his tries at the rim … Draws 5 fouls per 40 minutes and makes 60.4 percent of his free throws.

• #22 – Junior forward Steven Crowl (7-0, 245) — Averaging 11.5 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, while shooting 49.2 percent from the field and 27.8 percent on threes (20-of-72) … Generates a prolific 1.088 points per post-up possession (including passes), which leads the Big Ten among those with 50 or more attempts … Also used as a ball-screen roll man (0.702 points per play).

Key bench contributors

• #2 – Junior guard Jordan Davis (6-4, 200) — Was a starter most of the year but has come off the bench in the last five games … Averaging 5.8 points and 3.7 rebounds per tilt, while shooting 41.1 percent overall and 32.6 percent from downtown (29-of-89) … A spot-up shooter who more often than not pulls up when he drives left and goes to the rim when he drives right.

• #14 – Junior forward Carter Gilmore (6-7, 225) — Putting up 2.9 points and 2.3 boards per outing, and shooting 43.4 percent from the field, including a 23.8-percent mark on threes (5-of-21) … Has the lowest usage rate (11.7) among Wisconsin’s rotational players … Spots up and posts up … Finishes on a strong 77.4 percent of his looks at the rim.

• #4 – Sophomore guard Kamari McGee (6-0, 180) — The backup point guard posts 1.2 points per game and shoots 40.7 percent from the field (5-of-16 on threes) … He was held scoreless the last game versus Iowa but combined for 15 points in the previous two outings (Michigan, Rutgers).

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. Michigan needs to flip the script from the last meeting

Michigan didn’t plan a clean game Feb. 14 in Madison and lost, 64-59, after battling back from a double-digit second-half deficit but falling short. The Badgers were held without a field goal for the final 10:45 but still won because Michigan didn’t make enough plays offensively … and it was down by 12 points at the 10-minute mark.

The loss stung because it was more than winnable for the Maize and Blue. The Wolverines allowed Wisconsin — a terrible offensive rebounding team — to collect 34.1 percent of its own missed shots (15 boards on 44 misses). They committed 12 turnovers, giving the ball away on 19 percent of their possessions and missed 4 second-half free throws.

All of those factors combined led to a Michigan loss. Play better in one area, and maybe it wins, but that was way too many mistakes to beat a desperate team in its own arena.

Michigan also struggled guarding Wisconsin’s off-ball actions, which it runs a lot within its swing offense. The Badgers scored 14 points on cuts and 12 on off-ball screens. Michigan ramped up the defense in the second half but gave away too many easy buckets, with Wisconsin making 11 shots at the rim.

Clean up those areas and hit some more shots, and Michigan should come away with a senior day win.

2. Refresher on Wisconsin’s profile

Wisconsin is a desperate team itself, fighting for an NCAA Tournament bid. It’s currently projected as a No. 11 seed in most brackets and has a remaining schedule of Purdue (home) and Minnesota (away) after playing in Ann Arbor.

The Badgers haven’t been all that impressive in league play. The offense ranks 12th in the Big Ten in efficiency during the conference season, with a 47.9 effective field goal percentage that checks in 13th. The Badgers lead the league in turnover rate (12.6) but shoot a mediocre 33.2 percent on threes despite shooting a lot of them and 46.6 percent on twos (12th in the Big Ten).

The defense has been much better and given it a chance. It also helps when Iowa misses some great looks from deep — the Hawkeyes went 3-of-28 from long range in a 64-52 Wisconsin win Wednesday in Madison — but credit the Badgers for forcing teams into long possessions, dictating the pace of the game and mucking it up.

Wisconsin forces turnovers on 18 percent of defensive possessions during the conference season (fifth in the Big Ten), its strong suit, while ranking ninth in three-point defense (34.2 percent) and eighth in two-point defense (49.8).

3. Wolverines are in must-win mode

Michigan has had some nice performances this season, but none were as impressive as Thursday’s 58-45 win in Piscataway. Expect another effort similar Sunday in front of a great Crisler Center crowd.

The Maize and Blue are an ascending team that has won five of their last seven games. During that stretch, since Feb. 2, T-Rank rates them as the most efficient team in the Big Ten — second on offense and fourth on defense. The defensive improvement has been the biggest bright spot, with four of the last six opponents being held to less than 1 point per possession.

Prediction

Wisconsin is great at passing out of the post to open shooters, with its starting frontcourt (Wahl and Crowl) ranking second on the team in assists, and Essegian, Klesmit and Hepburn are capable of hitting deep looks. The Badgers shoot 43.2 percent on triple tries created by post-up passes. Other than that, they just don’t have much offensive firepower. If Michigan plays how its capable defensively — and how it did in the first meeting — a solid offensive performance should be enough.

A win — which is what we predict — will put the Wolverines on the NCAA Tournament bubble and make things interesting heading into the final two regular season games, at Illinois and at Indiana.

Prediction: Michigan 70, Wisconsin 62