Michigan football, by the numbers: Breaking down Indiana's pass-happy attack, more

Michigan Wolverines football played a run-heavy team in Iowa last week (though the Hawkeyes threw quite a bit, and with some success), and now they’ll take on a pass-happy offense in Indiana this weekend.

“Pass happy” might be an understatement, too. With 246 attempts, Indiana has thrown more than any team in the country, averaging 49.2 passes per game. The efficiency hasn’t been there, though, with quarterback Connor Bazelak, a Missouri transfer, averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt, the worst mark in the Big Ten. For reference, Michigan sophomore signal-caller J.J. McCarthy has put up 10.1 yards per attempt, which ranks third in the conference.

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Indiana has been forced to pass because the running game hasn’t been up to par. The Hoosiers are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and 105.2 yards per game (tied for 108th nationally).

Even without much of a run-game threat, Indiana uses a lot of play-action passes, on 31.2 percent of Bazelak’s drop-backs. He’s averaging 6.4 yards per attempt and has thrown 6 of his 8 touchdowns on the passing concept, with 2 interceptions. Without play-action, he’s averaging 5.3 yards per attempt with 2 scores and 3 picks.

Most of Indiana’s passes are either behind the line of scrimmage or within 10 yards of it (54.6 percent). Indiana has an 8.8-yard average throw depth that slots 63rd nationally. And even with that, Bazelak hasn’t been very accurate, with a 76.9 percent catchable ball rate that ranks 109th in the country.

Intermediate passes have been hit or miss for the Hoosiers. Bazelak has completed just 44.1 percent of his throws that go between 10-19 air yards for 498 yards and 4 touchdowns with 4 interceptions.

Indiana will throw deep on occasion. Bazelak has aired it out 20-plus yards 29 times this season but connected on only 6 of those attempts for 209 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Michigan’s pass defense has been one of the best in the country statistically through five games. The Wolverines are holding opponents to only 157.8 yards per game through the air. The numbers have dropped significantly during Big Ten play, though, with Maryland racking up 269 passing yards and Iowa putting up 246 yards through the air.

Betting trends

Michigan is a 22-point favorite over Indiana with the over/under set at 59 points. Here are some betting trends to know:

• Michigan is 14-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last 19 contests and 3-2 ATS this season.

• Indiana is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games and 1-4 ATS this season.

• The total has gone under in five of Michigan’s last six games.

• The total has gone over in three of Indiana’s five games this season and five of its last seven outings.

• The over has hit in four of the last five games in this series played at Indiana.

By the numbers: Michigan football vs. Indiana

1st Is where McCarthy ranks nationally in completion percentage (78.6). He’s tied for fifth with 10.1 yards per attempt and stands alone in fifth with a 186.94 rating.

4 Sacks for Indiana freshman outside linebacker Dasan McCullough, a former four-star and top-100 recruit per the On3 Consensus. That sack total ranks No. 2 in the country among first-year players.

5-0 For Michigan football in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2010-11. The Wolverines have won 17 of their last 19 games, the program’s best 19-game stretch since 2015-16.

6th In the country is where Michigan stands in scoring offense (45.4 points per game) and scoring defense (11.6 points allowed per contest). U-M has outscored its opposition 227-58 this fall.

10 Rushing touchdowns for Michigan junior running back Blake Corum, a number that leads the nation. It’s just one shy of his total from last season (11). He’s on pace to set U-M’s single-season rushing touchdown record (20, set by Hassan Haskins in 2021).

13th in the sport in rushing offense for Michigan with 221.8 yards per game. U-M is 79th in passing offense (234.8 yards per outing). The Wolverines are 14th in rushing defense (94.2) and 10th in passing defense (157.8).

14-7 Was Indiana’s combined record during the 2019 and 2020 seasons. That included a win over Michigan in 2020, the first the Hoosiers notched in the series since 1987. Since the 2020 campaign, though, Indiana is 5-12.

54 Tackles for Indiana linebacker Cam Jones in his fifth season, the most by a Hoosier through five games since the 2005 season. His 54 stops rank ninth nationally and first in the Big Ten.

60-10 Is Michigan’s advantage in the all-time series against Indiana. The Wolverines won 24-straight games from 1988-2020.

99th in the country is where Indiana ranks in scoring defense, allowing 30.4 points per clash. The Hoosiers are 107th in total defense (420.4 yards allowed per game), 69th in rushing defense (142.6) and 118th against the pass (277.8).