By the numbers: What's with the early-down success, third-down struggles for the Michigan defense?

What’s the disconnect with the Michigan Wolverines football defense? The group has immense talent and has proven formidable in spurts, but hasn’t been consistent enough in the first six games to put up numbers as one of the elite defenses in the nation.

The Michigan offense certainly hasn’t put the defense in favorable spots enough, with the Wolverines turning the ball over 12 times, tied for the 13th most in the country. Executing in those “sudden change” situations — time and time again — can be difficult.

But coordinator Wink Martindale‘s group has also squandered many opportunities to help itself out and get off the field. Third downs have been their kryptonite.

This conversation has to begin with giving Michigan props for its early-down success. The Wolverines are allowing only 6.1 yards per pass (18th nationally) and 3.7 yards per rush (ninth) on first and second down. The defense has been great against the run overall, giving up only 2.9 yards per carry, which sets up less-than-ideal situations for the opposing offense. But other teams have been able to convert at an alarming rate.

Michigan has faced 91 third-down snaps (tied for the 23rd-most in the country) and allowed a 40.7-percent conversion rate, ranking 84th.

Michigan has been challenged with 23 third-down runs, the 13th-fewest in the sport, allowing a subpar mark of 5.7 yards per rush (87th). Even so, the pass defense on third down has been the main issue.

Michigan is giving up 7.5 yards per pass (94th in FBS) and a 60.3 completion percentage (94th) on third down. The Wolverines have faced 63 third-down passes, the eighth-most in the country.

The defense has done its job on early downs to force opponents into throwing 41 passes on third-and-7 or longer … but they’re averaging 8.6 yards per attempt in those situations (103rd in FBS).

Perhaps Michigan’s struggles on third down will go to the wayside in the second half of the season, due to an enhanced focus on the situations and even the law of averages evening out. A defense with the ability to have success on first and second surely has the talent to keep it going on third down, one would think.

Illinois considers Michigan a rival?

Those who favor Illinois think of this matchup in a completely different light than Michigan fans, for whatever reason. Any fan would certainly rather be the hated than envious of another program’s success, though, and the latter may be the root of the Fighting Illini’s hatred for the Maize and Blue.

Illinois is wearing 1920s-themed throwback uniforms for this weekend’s game, commemorating the 1924 win over a then-undefeated Michigan team. The Fighting Illini are also rededicating their stadium that they’ve sold out multiple times in one season for the first time since 2009.

“That place should be rocking. That place should be going crazy,” head coach Bret Bielema said.

“Other game day features include a special pregame presentation of the game ball by some of Illinois’ most legendary players, a flyover conducted by the United States Navy, all former football players in attendance being honored at halftime, and a halftime performance by the Marching Illini involving family members of Illinois’ athletic architects from the early years — athletic director George Huff, head football coach Robert Zuppke and Red Grange,” the Illinois athletics website announced.

In other words, the Illini are pulling out all the stops. After all, a win would be the 24th overall against Michigan and 13th at home since the two teams began playing in 1898.

The Wolverines may not view the Fighting Illini as a rival, but Illinois sees the opportunity to notch a win in this series as a reason to celebrate due to how few and far between those have been. Michigan has a 72-23-2 advantage, winning eight of the last 10 overall and 11 of the past 13 in Champaign with one tie. The two victories in the last 10 meetings came against U-M head coach Rich Rodriguez in seasons the Wolverines’ missed bowl eligibility (2008, 2009).

By the numbers: Michigan vs. Illinois

3.9 Yards per carry for Illinois, ranking 88th in the sport. The Fighting Illini are also averaging only 4.3 yards per early-down rush (87th).

7 Touchdown receptions by Illinois wide receiver Pat Bryant, checking in fourth in the country and second in the Big Ten. That means 25.9 percent of his 27 catches have resulted in six points.

14 Passing touchdowns for Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer, ranking 13th in the country. He’s the only signal-caller in the Power Four with 14-plus touchdowns and only 1 interception. He’s completing 67.7 percent of his throws for 1,426 yards.

20 Points per game allowed by Illinois, ranking 33rd in the country, up from slotting 93rd last season (29.4 points per game). The Fighting Illini have been disruptive, too, with 7 forced fumbles and 7 interceptions.

39th In the country is where Michigan ranks in rushing yards per game (191.3), but balance has been the issue, with only 115 passing yards per contest, the third-lowest mark in the nation behind only Army (92.5) and Air Force (88.2).

40 Tackles for Michigan junior linebacker Ernest Hausmann, a team high, including 21 in the last two games — 9 versus Minnesota and 12 against Washington.

45.8-Percent third-down conversion rate for Illinois, ranking 31st in the country. That’s contrasted with the third-down struggles for the Michigan defense that we described above.

67 Points scored by Michigan in a 67-65 win over Illinois Nov. 6, 2010. The 132 total points were the highest by both teams in any Michigan game, with the next-highest total being 130 in a 130-0 win over West Virginia in 1904.

98 Passing yards for Michigan graduate quarterback Jack Tuttle in his season debut at Washington Oct. 5. Prior to that, Tuttle hadn’t seen game action since Oct. 21, 2023 — 350 days before. With 10 completions on 18 attempts, Tuttle completed nearly as many passes against Washington as he did all of last season, when he went 15-of-17 in five appearances off the bench.