Previewing Michigan vs. Indiana with a Hoosier insider

In previewing Michigan vs. Indiana, we caught up with Indy Star‘s Zachary Osterman to gain some insight on the Hoosiers ahead of their game with the Wolverines Saturday night.

Osterman projected the team’s starting lineups, went in depth on strengths and weaknesses and gave a final score prediction.

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Indiana Projected Starters On Offense

• Freshman QB Donaven McCulley — Played in relief duty in two games, before making the first start of his career last week at Maryland, when he completed 14 of 25 passes for 242 yards and two touchdowns. He connected on 1 of 6 attempts for 30 yards versus Ohio State. He’s likely to start ahead of injured upperclassmen Michael Penix Jr. and Jack Tuttle.

• Fifth-year senior RB Stephen Carr — The Doak Walker Award preseason watch list member has gained 588 yards on 152 carries (3.9 yards per carry), with six touchdowns.

• Fifth-year senior WR Ty Fryfogle — The 2020 third-team All-American leads the team in catches (38) and is second with 445 receiving yards, while adding one touchdown. He lines up out wide on 53 percent of his snaps and in the slot 47 percent of the time, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• Redshirt junior WR Miles Marshall — He’s registered 14 grabs for 213 yards, while lining up on the outside on 75.6 percent of his snaps. He blocked a kick against Maryland.

• Redshirt junior WR Jacolby Hewitt — He’s posted seven receptions for 39 yards, while lining up out wide on 68.8 percent of his plays. There has been a heavy amount of rotation at the third wideout spot, Osterman revealed.

• Fifth-year senior TE Peyton Hendershot — The John Mackey Award preseason watch list honoree leads the Hoosiers with 445 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns, and is second on the team with 35 catches. His run-blocking, though, has been subpar, with a 51.1 grade on PFF.

• Senior LT Luke Haggard — The junior college transfer has started 11 games at Indiana. He’s fourth on the offense with a 73.1 overall PFF grade, while his 74.1 run-blocking rating is second on the unit. He has allowed 18 pressures and two sacks this season.

• Junior LG Matthew Bedford — He’s started 23 career games and was on the Outland Award watch list heading into the season. His 61.7 overall PFF grade is considered below average, and he’s yielded 13 pressures and two sacks.

• Sixth-year senior C Dylan Powell — He’s started 15 career games. He’s posted a 64.7 overall PFF rating, while his 74.8 pass-blocking mark ranks second on the squad among players who have seen 100-plus snaps.

• Redshirt sophomore RG Zach Carpenter — The former Michigan player who transferred mid-season last year made his first start at Indiana last weekend. His 67.2 overall PFF grade is second on the Hoosiers among offensive linemen who have played more than 100 snaps, while his 76.0 pass-blocking rating is the highest out of that group.

• Fifth-year senior RT Caleb Jones — He’s started 25 career games, and his 55.7 overall PFF rating is the worst among the starting offensive linemen. He has given up 25 pressures and five sacks on the season.

Indiana Projected Starters On Defense

• Senior DT Demarcus Elliott — He’s posted 15 tackles, one stop for loss and two breakups on the season. According to PFF, he has racked up five pressures.

• Fifth-year senior DT Weston Kramer — The Northern Illinois transfer is ninth on the team with 23 tackles, while adding three tackles for loss, one sack and one fumble recovery. He has four pressures, per PFF.

• Fifth-year senior DE Ryder Anderson — The Ole Miss transfer slots fifth on the squad with 35 tackles and is second with eight stops for loss and 3.5 sacks. He has 11 pressures, according to PFF.

• Fifth-year senior DE Alfred Bryant — He’s racked up 17 tackles, 1.5 stops for loss and one quarterback hurry, while pressuring the QB four times (per PFF).

• Senior LB Cam Jones — His 45 tackles rank second on the defense, and he’s added two stops for loss, one sack, two pass breakups, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. He has 11 quarterback pressures, per PFF.

• Senior LB Micah McFadden — The Bednarik Award, Butkus Award and Bronko Nagurski Trophy preseason watch list member leads Indiana with 50 tackles and 14 stops for loss, while contributing four quarterback hurries, two pass breakups, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery. His 92.1 PFF pass-rush rating leads the team, and he’s accumulated 25 hurries, per PFF.

• Fifth-year senior HUSKY Bryant Fitzgerald — The safety/linebacker hybrid has compiled 20 tackles, with three behind the line of scrimmage. In coverage, he’s given up 14 catches for 139 yards on 17 challenges.

• Senior CB Jaylin Williams — He’s sixth on the team with 30 tackles, and has a team-leading six pass breakups. He’s allowed 19 receptions for 246 yards and two touchdowns on 37 targets.

• Redshirt junior CB Noah Pierre — His 26 tackles slot seventh on the team, and he’s added two stops for loss, one interception and two pass breakups. He’s given up 15 grabs for 165 yards on 23 targets.

• Senior S Devon Matthews — The 2020 third-team All-Big Ten honoree is tied for third on the Hoosiers with 37 tackles, and he has three stops for loss with two pass breakups. He’s yielded 12 receptions for 166 yards and one touchdown on 16 targets.

• Fifth-year senior S Raheem Layne — He’s tied with Matthews for third on the squad with 37 tackles, while adding one stop for loss, one interception, one pass breakup and one forced fumble. He’s given up 13 catches for 155 yards and three touchdowns on 21 targets in coverage.

Indiana Specialists

• Freshman P James Evans — He’s averaging 42 yards per punt, with a long of 62 and eight pins inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.

• Redshirt junior K Charles Campbell — He’s connected on 12 of 15 field goal attempts, with a long of 49 yards.

Top Strength Of Indiana Offense

Considering Indiana is 2-6 and averaging just 22 points per game (109th in the country), it’s not a huge surprise that there isn’t an obvious strength of the unit, but it has shown improvement in the recent past.

“That’s a bit of a loaded question,” Osterman said when asked what the strength of the offense is. “There really hasn’t been a consistent one yet this season.

“Saturday at Maryland, Indiana finally found some run-pass balance and got better play from its offensive line in achieving that. Plus, [freshman quarterback Donaven] McCulley has a strong arm and didn’t look shy about trying to push the ball downfield to both receivers and tight ends, so there was an element of explosiveness in his performance.

“But the reality is that in all the games it’s played against ranked teams this year, IU has been terribly inconsistent in pretty much all phases offensively, so it’s tough to guarantee a single strength for this weekend.”

Biggest Weakness Of Indiana Offense

“IU’s season has pretty much been derailed by offensive inconsistency in all facets — the run, the pass, the red zone, protection schemes, third downs, ball security,” the writer said. “Even a middle-of-the-road offensive team probably beats Cincinnati and Michigan State, and at least gives Penn State a game.

“One of the biggest disappointments of last weekend was that Indiana finally got some offensive production but couldn’t join it to what until recently has been an excellent defense. Complementary football in any form has been a challenge this fall.”

Top Strength Of Indiana Defense

The “spine” is the strength of the Hoosier defense, Osterman said, especially when it comes to defending the run. Indiana slots 37th in the nation, yielding 127.4 rushing yards per outing.

“IU is sound on the defensive line with a lot of clever sub packages it can roll out,” he said. “[Senior] Micah McFadden, whatever Indiana’s other shortcomings, has a convincing case as the Big Ten’s best linebacker, and his running mate [senior] Cam Jones is no slouch. And the Hoosiers are solid, if a little bit undermanned depth-wise, at safety.

“On its best days, it makes the defense difficult to run against, and hard to keep out of creative blitz and pressure packages. With numerous injuries at corner, that’s been crucial for IU this year.”

Biggest Weakness Of Indiana Defense

Indiana has been plagued by injuries this season, with players shuffling in and out of the lineup. That has led to inconsistency in performance, Osterman said, with the defense playing stout in some games but allowing opposing offenses to explode in others.

“That it has only seemed to add injuries, and that it has begun to look like it might be buckling under the weight of those injuries,” Osterman explained when asked what the biggest weakness is.

“By all rights, Indiana should have beaten Michigan State. The Hoosiers defended so well they allowed just 13 offense-scored points and actually held Michigan State so well, Indiana outrushed and outpassed them. Which has made the last two weeks (54 points allowed to Ohio State, 38 allowed to Maryland) all the more concerning.

“Other than that dwindling depth, especially in the secondary, which was supposed to be a position of huge strength, Indiana has seemed like a defense that could carry the Hoosiers to wins even with a flagging offense, until recently. That pattern must change Saturday.”

Osterman’s Final Score Prediction

“I just can’t see Indiana winning,” Osterman admitted. “Maybe the revised offense scores enough to keep it close, catches Michigan on an MSU hangover, etc. But this team hasn’t played winning football against a Big Ten opponent all year. I’d be surprised if that starts Saturday.”

Prediction: Michigan 38, Indiana 20