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ESPN FPI projects Michigan football 2025 record, national championship odds, strength of schedule, more

clayton-sayfieby:Clayton Sayfie•06/03/25•

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Sherrone Moore
Michigan Wolverines football head coach Sherrone Moore before his team's game against Oregon. (Photo by Lon Horwedel / TheWolverine.com)

ESPN has released its Football Power Index (FPI) ahead of the 2025 season, and Michigan Wolverines football checks in as one of the top 20 teams in the sport, ranking No. 17 overall.

Before diving into the rankings, here’s an explanation of what FPI is, from ESPN.com: “The FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game.”

Here’s what FPI says about Michigan ahead of the 2025 campaign.

Michigan is the 17th-best team in the nation

Michigan checked in No. 17 overall, behind No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Alabama, No. 4 Ohio State, No. 5 Penn State, No. 6 Oregon, No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 8 Texas A&M, No. 9 Miami, No. 10 Tennessee, No. 11 Clemson, No. 12 LSU, No. 13 Mississippi, No. 14 Auburn, No. 15 South Carolina and No. 16 Oklahoma.

That means the Wolverines are regarded as the fourth-best team in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon. There’s a clear drop-off in tiers between Oregon, which checks in third in the Big Ten but sixth in the nation — 11 spots ahead of the Maize and Blue.

Strength of schedule

Michigan has the 29th-toughest schedule in the nation, per FPI. That checks in 11th in the Big Ten behind Wisconsin (12th), Ohio State (18th), UCLA (19th), Rutgers (21st), Northwestern (22nd), Purdue (23rd), Oregon (25th), Minnesota (26th), Penn State (27th) and USC (28th).

Projected record

Michigan slots as the 17th-best team in America with a challenging schedule, and as a result FPI projects that the Wolverines’ regular-season record will be 8.4-3.7. Rounding to the nearest game, that places the Wolverines at 8-4.

Michigan won seven regular-season games last season. Before that, the Wolverines hadn’t won eight games in a full-length campaign since 2017.

FPI states that Michigan has a 94.2 percent chance to notch six regular-season victories and become bowl eligible. The Wolverines have played in a bowl game each of the last nine full-length seasons (every team was eligible for one in the shortened 2020 campaign, but U-M did not play in the postseason).

Chances to win the Big Ten

Michigan won three-straight Big Ten championships before finishing 5-4 in the conference last year. The Wolverines have a six-percent chance to win the 18-team league this season, per FPI.

FPI gives Ohio State a 40.3-percent chance to win the Big Ten. Penn State (25.1) and Oregon (19.1) also have better odds of winning the championship game in Indianapolis.

College Football Playoff odds

Michigan has a 25.3-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s metric. The Wolverines made the four-team field three-consecutive seasons from 2021-23, winning the national title in the last year of that run. In 2024, the CFP shifted to a 12-team field, and it’ll be the same format this season.

Ohio State (70.6 percent), Penn State (63.8) and Oregon (57.5) are all expected to make the CFP. Michigan has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten at 25.3 percent, and then there’s a huge drop-off. FPI gives Nebraska the next-best odds at a lowly 10.3 percent. Indiana (8.9) and Washington (8.1) are close behind.



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