What they're saying: Michigan matchup with USC is an 'inflection point' early in Sherrone Moore era

Michigan Wolverines football is set to take on USC in a showdown of top-20 teams Saturday in Ann Arbor. Here’s a look around the internet at what they’re saying before kickoff.

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Jesse Simonton, On3: Sherrone Moore botched Michigan QB decision, recognized it, owned it, but now can he fix it?

Rarely do head coaches in Year 1 face such inflection points so early in their careers, but Saturday feels like such a game for [Sherrone] Moore. Beat the Trojans in the Big House, and Michigan is 3-1 with a manageable path back to the College Football Playoff — even if a fourth-straight Big Ten title looks off the table. 

Lose, and the Wolverines would have two losses before October for the first time in a decade, and would likely be starring at a 7-5-ish season. 

So Saturday is really important, and Moore seems to recognize as much by publicly tabbing Orji as the starter rather than playing mind games again like he did in Week 1. 

He made a mistake, recognized it, and owned it. 

Now what can he do to make sure this decision works?

Bill Connelly, ESPN.com: CFB Week 4 preview: Tennessee-OU, Utah-Oklahoma State, USC-Michigan, picks and more

It wasn’t hard to see the vision of Sherrone Moore picking [senior] Davis Warren over [junior] Alex Orji as QB No. 1 to start the 2024 season. Orji isn’t a trustworthy passer — in parts of three seasons he has attempted just eight passes (sacked once) that have netted 18 yards. He can run, and we assumed him to be the heir apparent for much of the offseason, but Warren threw better in camp, and Moore decided to roll the dice.

One-quarter of the way through the season, however, Warren has completed just two passes of more than 25 yards and thrown six interceptions. He’s 103rd in Total QBR, and in a gimme game against Arkansas State last week he was picked off three times with two sacks in 16 pass attempts. He lost the plot, and if the passer can’t pass, just go with the runner. Orji will start on Saturday as Michigan doubles down on manball.

USC hasn’t exactly been manball-resistant under [Lincoln] Riley. The Trojans went 0-3 against Utah out West, and in 12 games in which opponents operated out of a two-tight end formation at least 30% of the time, USC has gone just 6-6. Part of that comes from the fact that teams are more likely to go with heavy formations when they’re already ahead, but those 12 games include games against physical Utah, Notre Dame and Stanford teams that weren’t afraid to attack a seven- or eight-man box with the run.

Even with Warren at QB, Michigan is operating with two tight ends 36% of the time. I would be shocked if that percentage wasn’t higher against the Trojans.

Between the run game and a strong secondary featuring [junior] cornerback Will Johnson, Michigan will perfectly test out what we still need to know about USC. But one assumes Orji will have to pass at least slightly well for the Wolverines to prevail.

Michael Cohen, Fox Sports: Alex Orji — Michigan’s ‘unrelenting workaholic’ QB — gets his chance to shine vs. USC

Orji’s most noteworthy accomplishment at Michigan was unseating defensive tackle Kris Jenkins for the team’s No. 1 cumulative Key Performance Indicator score, a formula devised by former director of strength and conditioning Ben Herbert that factors four dozen metrics into an unbiased assessment of athletic capability based on frame analysis, flexibility and mobility, strength and power, agility and speed. It was borderline unthinkable for a quarterback to be in contention for the top spot when Herbert first designed the formula, but rarely are signal-callers capable of leaping 10-feet-6-inches in the broad jump or posting times of 3.97 seconds in the shuttle and 6.65 seconds in the 3-cone drill as Orji has. Harbaugh even mentioned Orji as a potential kick returner ahead of the 2023 season. 

“He has this natural ability to — and I don’t say this often — but I said it about J.J. [McCarthy] and I’ll say it to you now about Alex,” Herbert told FOX Sports. “If [Orji] is like, ‘Hey Herb, let’s go,’ it’s not like [I’m going to ask], ‘Where are we going? What are we doing?’ I’m walking behind him, I’m following him, I’m choosing to follow him. There’s not a lot of people at this point [who] I look at that way. He’s just one of those guys, you know? He’s at the forefront. He’s willing and able to do all things. And you just see that emerge day after day after day. 

“Just the work that he put in mentally and physically to put himself in the place now where he’s in the position he’s in [to become a potential starter]. He has the respect from what he’s done and how he works. And then now just going and tying it all together, being the player that he’s capable of being.”

Bob Wojnowski, The Detroit News: Wojo’s Pigskin Picks: Wolverines planning to give USC warm Big Ten welcome

None of this makes sense, does it? After bludgeoning opponents by multiple touchdowns for three full years, the Wolverines are underdogs at home for a second [time in the last three weeks]. And now, according to the Interwebs, addled fans are wondering if Sherrone Moore knows what he’s doing.

I understand some of the angst, even if it’s obnoxiously premature and likely booze-infused. I mean, Moore did just bench his quarterback, even though Davis Warren didn’t throw a single incompletion last week in a resounding victory over Arkansas-Something. By my math, each of his 14 passes was caught by an actual football player. No incompletions, not a single ball hit the turf.

As it turns out, 11 catches were made by Michigan players and three by Arkansas folks, which is not the way it’s supposed to work. So, barely three weeks into their defense of an unscarred, unscathed, undisputed national championship, Moore made the tough (and necessary) call to choose someone who doesn’t throw the ball to the other team. And if new starter Alex Orji accidentally starts doing it, at least he has the mobility to run around until a better option appears.

Orji is built like a linebacker if linebackers were still only 6-3, 235. He’s a fantastic athlete and the Wolverines will run him a lot, Orji gorging, so to speak. He’s thrown only seven passes in three seasons and two were touchdowns, so Moore might consider utilizing those plays again.

Erik McKinney, WeAreSC: Keys to the Game: How USC beats Michigan in Ann Arbor

Control the interior
Michigan has a few good edge players in Josaiah Stewart, Derrick Moore and others, but it feels like if the Wolverines are going to really slow this USC offense, it’ll be mostly with the interior of the defensive line. Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant have been talked about as potential first-round picks all offseason. They’ve been good but Rayshawn Benny has been the most productive interior defender for Michigan. The Trojans don’t have to dominate that group inside, but they do have to keep them somewhat in check. Michigan’s interior linemen had half a tackle for loss and zero sacks against Texas as the Longhorns blocked them well and made them chase horizontally.

This is going to be a test for the interior of the USC offensive line. They’ll have their hands full with the guys lined up across from them and Michigan will send extra pressure as well. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the USC offense try to neutralize that by getting the ball out quickly to receiver or backs and making the Michigan linemen chase plays down to the perimeter.

Bruce Feldman, The Athletic: College football picks against the spread: Bruce Feldman’s Week 4 predictions

The Trojans defense is much improved and the Wolverines look worse on both sides of the ball. It’s not surprising that their offense is struggling given how much they lost, but their defense has been really shaky. I think Lincoln Riley, with a very savvy QB in Miller Moss and one of the deepest WR rooms in the country, will get the best of new Wolverines DC Wink Martindale.

USC 24, Michigan 14
Pick: USC (-6)

Rainer Sabin, The Detroit Free Press: QB switch may be right call. But it’s still troubling for Michigan’s Sherrone Moore

So, now it’s Orji’s turn. Pivoting to him may, in fact, be the right move at this juncture. But it also seems a last resort, reeking of desperation. Heading into the team’s fourth game, the Wolverines’ new coach has pinned his hopes on Orji breathing life into the offense. It’s a leap of faith, considering the belief in Moore’s leadership could die if Orji can’t give Michigan the pulse it needs.  

Rainer Sabin, The Detroit Free Press: How a key missing piece is affecting Wolverines’ defense

The Wolverines were prepared to give him the stage to make his ambitions become reality. As soon as he signed on with the program this past winter, new coordinator Wink Martindale designated [senior safety Rod] Moore to be the on-field conductor of his intricate scheme. Back in March, he said Moore reminded him of former All-Pro Eric Weddle, a safety Martindale described as one of the most intelligent he’s ever coached during his 20-year run in the NFL.

“That’s exciting to me,” Martindale continued. “Because there’s a lot of checks that have to be made on the field. … And (Moore) is that smart.”

Martindale had banked on Moore being the hub of communication for a defense that had just bid farewell to another cerebral player, current Washington Commanders nickel back Mike Sainristil. The departure of Sainristil was followed by the February defection of a potential rising star at safety, Keon Sabb, who transferred to Alabama and has already intercepted two passes for the Crimson Tide.

With Moore now out of the picture too, Martindale seemed to be in a bit of a bind. That became more evident when defensive backs coach LaMar Morgan revealed in August that Martindale’s plan was to run a “positionless” system, whereby players shifted spots from one down to the next to keep the opposing quarterback guessing. As [junior] slot cornerback Zeke Berry said, “It’s a lot of moving parts. You’ve got a lot of people rotating.”