What they're saying about Michigan football before Arkansas State: 'Three-year run is finished'

Michigan Wolverines football is 1-1 and looking to bounce back from a loss to Texas in its matchup against Arkansas State Saturday in Ann Arbor. Here’s a look around the internet at what they’re saying before kickoff.

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According to redacted reports, Harbaugh also loaded up his moving van with the locker room countdown clocks, dozens of cleats, and several cases of Washtenaw Dairy whole milk. That didn’t leave much for Sherrone “Signed and Sealed!” Moore, who opened the office cupboards to find a half-empty ketchup bottle, unused burner phones, live chickens, a crumpled NOA, and way in the back, three first-round draft picks on defense.

Hey, it’s the reality of the new college football landscape. Sparky Anderson’s famous saying was, “Every 24 hours the world turns over on someone who was sitting on top of it.” (Duly noted by the Tigers and Twins). But who knew that included programs like Michigan, Notre Dame and Florida State? Who knew, 24 hours later, we’d see Northern Illinois, Boston College, Nebraska and Michigan State wobbling around on top?

This is the cost of getting drunk and satisfied with success. While Michigan was rolling along on its happy missions, basking and baking (if you know what I mean), other programs were out shopping. The Wolverines declined to buy a bunch of stars, even though all the rich kids are doing it. By the time they started poking around in the Quarterback Store, all they found were empty hangers, 70%-off bargain bins and Nate Sudfeld.

Now to be fair, Michigan did an honorable thing paying its own instead of shaking down gullible supporters for $20 million to purchase a fancy quarterback like Ohio State did (Will Howard). And Miami did (Cam Ward). And Oregon (Dillon Gabriel). And Notre Dame (Riley Leonard). And the Bears (Caleb Williams). And Florida State (oopsie).

Shawn Windsor, Detroit Free Press: Michigan football’s drop from contender to crash a shock. How long will the fall last?

Before U-M’s three-year rampage through the Big Ten that culminated in the College Football Playoff championship in January, the Wolverines reached 10 victories in just four of the previous 14 seasons. That includes four seasons below .500.

(And while it’s reasonable to toss out 2020, when U-M went 2-4 in a Big Ten thrown into disarray by the coronavirus pandemic, everyone else played college football that season, too, and at least a few teams managed winning records.)

Uncertainty is the enemy of hope, and hope is what fuels sports fandom more than anything else. Only the most diehard and deluded figured the Wolverines for a title contender this season. Texas squashing that faint notion isn’t the issue.

Rather, it was the realization that the historic, three-year run is finished. No wonder so much of the fanbase left Michigan Stadium weary and uneasy. Most remember what happened before that historic run:

Lopsided rivalries, a 16-year Big Ten title drought, and a seat at the kiddie table during college football’s annual postseason conversation.

Scott Dochterman, The Athletic: Who’s still alive in the CFP race? Breaking down who’s in, on the bubble and in trouble

Still alive
Michigan: The defending champs are nowhere near a CFP contender as of today. But the Wolverines can grow into one, and that matters. The 31-12 home loss to No. 2 Texas looks bad, but other contenders will suffer a worse fate against the Longhorns. The question is, can Michigan turn it around against USC on Sept. 21? If not, the Wolverines will have to sweep Oregon and Ohio State in November plus beat a bunch of mid-level Big Ten teams that would love to ruin their season.

Alex Kirschner, Slate: Michigan Was Due for a Fall. But This Is Steeper Than Anyone Thought.

It was Harbaugh’s extensive dalliance with the NFL—not karmic payback for stealing signs—that put Michigan in an extra bad spot this season. Wolverines fans would take that trade 1,000 times out of 1,000. Flags, after all, fly forever. But Michigan was due for a decline even if Harbaugh had stayed. And the lateness of his move made it more difficult for Moore to patch up his team in his first year in charge.

The program’s long-term outlook remains rosy. Michigan will never be dislodged as one of the sport’s blue bloods, and Moore has every chance to be a solid head coach. He’s already shown hints of that, filling in for a suspended Harbaugh for nearly half of last season. He was Harbaugh’s obvious replacement, and it must have been nice for Michigan to not have to mount a sprawling search.

But things may not be fun for quite a while. The eventual punishment the NCAA metes out for the sign-stealing affair won’t be as bad as the indignity of getting annihilated by Ohio State this November for the first time since 2019. The best course of action will be to keep staring very intently at 2023’s championship trophies. In the best case, they are bright enough to cause temporary blindness.

Heather Dinich and Adam Rittenberg, ESPN.com: College football Week 3 buzz: Georgia and Texas are still out front, Michigan’s bleak future, plus upset picks

What’s a realistic regular-season outcome for Michigan this season?

Dinich: This is a team that could realistically lose five games — Texas, USC, Washington, Oregon and Ohio State. According to ESPN Stats & Information, a four-loss team has never been ranked in the committee’s top 12. Michigan got beat soundly up front, couldn’t get enough stops on third downs — or convert on third downs (3-of-12) — and lost the turnover (3-0) battle. Coach Sherrone Moore said many of those issues — particularly the turnovers — are correctable, but how much better can Michigan be on the offensive and defensive lines? Michigan is No. 103 in the country in offensive efficiency.

Rittenberg: Michigan’s troubles go beyond the quarterback position, although the resistance to adding a portal QB doesn’t look good, either. Big Ten coaches who watched the Texas game saw a Michigan team feeling the effects of losing 13 players to the NFL draft and simply lacking the depth it enjoyed the past three seasons. “The amount of talent they lost, this is more like the teams they had where they won six or seven games,” a Big Ten coordinator said. “A whole new squad, new defensive coordinator, whole new offense.”

Austin Meek, The Athletic: Michigan’s QB succession plan after J.J. McCarthy? How the Wolverines ended up here

With Tuttle recovering from an injury, that left Warren and Orji as the primary contenders in the spring. Michigan came out of spring practice with little clarity, but offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell downplayed the possibility of adding a quarterback from the portal.

“That’s not part of our thought process right now,” Campbell said in April. “Roster evaluation is always part of the process, but right now that’s not something we’re looking at.”

The options in the April portal window left much to be desired. Most programs had their quarterbacks, and Michigan wasn’t aggressively signaling that it was in the market. The Wolverines decided to stand pat and let the quarterbacks continue their competition in preseason camp.

That decision is open to scrutiny, though it’s not clear that adding a quarterback in the spring would have significantly improved Michigan’s situation. The Wolverines had two years with McCarthy as the starter to develop a high school quarterback or land a player from the portal. Their only option now is to make the best of things with Warren and Orji, see if Tuttle can get healthy and look forward to the future with Davis and two quarterbacks who are committed for 2025 and 2026, Carter Smith and Brady Hart.

Heather Dinich, ESPN.com: College Football Playoff 2024: Week 3 predictions

Next four out
Michigan Wolverines: Oof. You can’t count the Wolverines out, but the loss to Texas exposed some glaring weaknesses. Michigan should be able to work on some fixable mistakes (like turnovers) on Saturday against Arkansas State, but ESPN Analytics now projects losses against USC, Washington and Ohio State.